Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Lufthansa Group's Q1 2025 financial performance illustrated both challenges and progress within a complex operating environment.</li><li>Revenues surpassed €8 billion for the first time in a first quarter, marking a 10% year over-year increase—a notable achievement as Q1 typically represents the weakest period for the airline industry.</li><li>The growth was driven by robust demand, increased capacity, and higher yields, particularly in the North Atlantic market, a region where traveler numbers increased by 7% and yields rose by the same percentage.</li></ul>

Lufthansa Group's Q1 2025 financial performance illustrated both challenges and progress within a complex operating environment.Revenues surpassed €8 billion for the first time in a first quarter, marking a 10% year over-year increase—a notable achievement as Q1 typically represents the weakest period for the airline industry.The growth was driven by robust demand, increased capacity, and higher yields, particularly in the North Atlantic market, a region where traveler numbers increased by 7% and yields rose by the same percentage.

Deutsche Lufthansa: Initiation of Coverage-Massive Turnaround Sparks Bold Profit Revival!

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

<ul>
<li>We update forecasts for the European airline sector, highlighting it will be difficult for most carriers to grow earnings in 2023.</li>
<li>We publish detailed earnings bridges highlighting the damage to full year earnings from structural damage to 1Q results due to inflationary pressure and the loss of corporate traffic</li>
<li>This also suggests opportunities for the sector to address winter woes to supplement strong summer performances.</li>
</ul>


We update forecasts for the European airline sector, highlighting it will be difficult for most carriers to grow earnings in 2023.
We publish detailed earnings bridges highlighting the damage to full year earnings from structural damage to 1Q results due to inflationary pressure and the loss of corporate traffic
This also suggests opportunities for the sector to address winter woes to supplement strong summer performances.


European Airlines – The Ravages of Increased Earnings Seasonality

<ul>
<li>We refresh estimates on AF-KLM, IAG, Lufthansa following Singapore Airlines's effective profit warning, noting higher fuel prices make margin protection more difficult.</li>
<li>Our 2024 EBIT estimates are 7% ahead of consensus at €2.0bn for AF-KLM, 6% ahead at €3.6bn for IAG and 5% behind at €2.5bn for Lufthansa.</li>
<li>Lufthansa has highest-in-class capacity growth, with its biggest focus on APAC while APAC yield weakness prompts margin management concerns as ground handlers strike.</li>
</ul>


We refresh estimates on AF-KLM, IAG, Lufthansa following Singapore Airlines's effective profit warning, noting higher fuel prices make margin protection more difficult.
Our 2024 EBIT estimates are 7% ahead of consensus at €2.0bn for AF-KLM, 6% ahead at €3.6bn for IAG and 5% behind at €2.5bn for Lufthansa.
Lufthansa has highest-in-class capacity growth, with its biggest focus on APAC while APAC yield weakness prompts margin management concerns as ground handlers strike.


European Airlines - Difficult to Avoid Long Haul Earnings Declines in 2024

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus., Carbon Tracker Initiative

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus.

Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker - part of the Tracker Group - are award-winning, non-profit financial think tanks focused on the climate–nature nexus.

<ul><li>Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this decade.</li><li>Even if all existing, under-development and announced projects ran at full capacity, AJF would account for only about 5% of global jet fuel and meet less than half of projected demand growth by 2030.</li><li>Longer-term, hurdles like high costs, scarce sustainable feedstocks and weak bankability may keep further scaling constrained.</li></ul>

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this decade.Even if all existing, under-development and announced projects ran at full capacity, AJF would account for only about 5% of global jet fuel and meet less than half of projected demand growth by 2030.Longer-term, hurdles like high costs, scarce sustainable feedstocks and weak bankability may keep further scaling constrained.

Safran SA - Sustainable Aviation - Fuel Disclosure

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Despite a few pockets of improved demand, key Transpacific trade remains weak</li>
<li>Most carriers reported low (48% - 68%) but stable cargo load factors in August</li>
<li>For carriers, still lots of empty space to sell; macro view shows no "snap-back"</li>
</ul>


Despite a few pockets of improved demand, key Transpacific trade remains weak
Most carriers reported low (48% - 68%) but stable cargo load factors in August
For carriers, still lots of empty space to sell; macro view shows no "snap-back"


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | August Shows Pockets of Growth | But LF, Pricing Both Still Very Weak

Germany

Deutsche Lufthansa Aktiengesellschaft provides passenger and cargo air transportation services worldwide. The Company offers flight and connection programs in North America, Scandinavia, and Asia. Deutsche Lufthansa also provides travel agency, catering, and aircraft maintenance services.

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Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR)

Deutsche Lufthansa: Initiation of Coverage-Massive Turnaround Sparks Bold Profit Revival!

Lufthansa Group's Q1 2025 financial performance illustrated both challenges and progress within a complex operating environment. Revenues...

Baptista Research

European Airlines – The Ravages of Increased Earnings Seasonality

Deep dive into winter loss-making for the European airline sector, with structural changes due to corporate traffic loss and inflation. These...

Neil Glynn

European Airlines - Difficult to Avoid Long Haul Earnings Declines in 2024

Deep dive on European flag carrier earnings prospects in 2024 featuring quarterly earnings bridges, in-depth fare and capacity growth analysis.

Neil Glynn

Safran SA - Sustainable Aviation - Fuel Disclosure

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | August Shows Pockets of Growth | But LF, Pricing Both Still Very Weak

August air cargo data from a range of carriers and cargo gateways around the Pacific Rim show uneven demand, but still-low utilization and weak...

Tracking Traffic

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