Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX and MDAX indices ahead of the September 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, we see one change for DAX and no changes for MDAX in September 2026.</li>
<li>The September rebal allows both Fast Entry/Exit and Regular Entry/Exit changes, creating interesting scenarios for borderline names. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX and MDAX indices ahead of the September 2026 index rebal event.
Currently, we see one change for DAX and no changes for MDAX in September 2026.
The September rebal allows both Fast Entry/Exit and Regular Entry/Exit changes, creating interesting scenarios for borderline names. 


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Sep 26: One DAX Change Likely; Reference Period Starting Soon

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We update forecasts for the European airline sector, highlighting it will be difficult for most carriers to grow earnings in 2023.</li>
<li>We publish detailed earnings bridges highlighting the damage to full year earnings from structural damage to 1Q results due to inflationary pressure and the loss of corporate traffic</li>
<li>This also suggests opportunities for the sector to address winter woes to supplement strong summer performances.</li>
</ul>


We update forecasts for the European airline sector, highlighting it will be difficult for most carriers to grow earnings in 2023.
We publish detailed earnings bridges highlighting the damage to full year earnings from structural damage to 1Q results due to inflationary pressure and the loss of corporate traffic
This also suggests opportunities for the sector to address winter woes to supplement strong summer performances.


European Airlines – The Ravages of Increased Earnings Seasonality

<ul>
<li>We refresh estimates on AF-KLM, IAG, Lufthansa following Singapore Airlines's effective profit warning, noting higher fuel prices make margin protection more difficult.</li>
<li>Our 2024 EBIT estimates are 7% ahead of consensus at €2.0bn for AF-KLM, 6% ahead at €3.6bn for IAG and 5% behind at €2.5bn for Lufthansa.</li>
<li>Lufthansa has highest-in-class capacity growth, with its biggest focus on APAC while APAC yield weakness prompts margin management concerns as ground handlers strike.</li>
</ul>


We refresh estimates on AF-KLM, IAG, Lufthansa following Singapore Airlines's effective profit warning, noting higher fuel prices make margin protection more difficult.
Our 2024 EBIT estimates are 7% ahead of consensus at €2.0bn for AF-KLM, 6% ahead at €3.6bn for IAG and 5% behind at €2.5bn for Lufthansa.
Lufthansa has highest-in-class capacity growth, with its biggest focus on APAC while APAC yield weakness prompts margin management concerns as ground handlers strike.


European Airlines - Difficult to Avoid Long Haul Earnings Declines in 2024

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX and MDAX indices ahead of the December 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, we don't expect any changes in the DAX or MDAX indices, but two MDAX names are close to the border for inclusion in the DAX.</li>
<li>Only the Fast Entry/Exit rules apply for the December rebalance, so names face stricter requirements to trigger index changes than in March and September, when Regular Entry/Exit rules also apply.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX and MDAX indices ahead of the December 2026 index rebal event.
Currently, we don't expect any changes in the DAX or MDAX indices, but two MDAX names are close to the border for inclusion in the DAX.
Only the Fast Entry/Exit rules apply for the December rebalance, so names face stricter requirements to trigger index changes than in March and September, when Regular Entry/Exit rules also apply.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Dec 26: A Few Names Are Close to the Border

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Rex American Resources / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.</li>
<li>SPX is testing 6400-6410 now, but QQQ and IWM are violating short-term supports at $572 and $226, respectively. This makes us believe we could see some near-term downside; buy pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.
SPX is testing 6400-6410 now, but QQQ and IWM are violating short-term supports at $572 and $226, respectively. This makes us believe we could see some near-term downside; buy pullbacks.


Staying Bullish Despite Near-Term Pullback Potential; Buy Pullbacks

Germany

Deutsche Lufthansa Aktiengesellschaft provides passenger and cargo air transportation services worldwide. The Company offers flight and connection programs in North America, Scandinavia, and Asia. Deutsche Lufthansa also provides travel agency, catering, and aircraft maintenance services.

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Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR)

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Sep 26: One DAX Change Likely; Reference Period Starting Soon

Lufthansa is an expected DAX ADD for September 2026, supported by Fast Entry conditions. If rankings shift, a Regular Entry path also opens up for...

Afridi Reyal

European Airlines – The Ravages of Increased Earnings Seasonality

Deep dive into winter loss-making for the European airline sector, with structural changes due to corporate traffic loss and inflation. These...

Neil Glynn

European Airlines - Difficult to Avoid Long Haul Earnings Declines in 2024

Deep dive on European flag carrier earnings prospects in 2024 featuring quarterly earnings bridges, in-depth fare and capacity growth analysis.

Neil Glynn

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Dec 26: A Few Names Are Close to the Border

No changes are expected in DAX or MDAX for December 2026, but thyssenkrupp and Lufthansa are close enough that a strong outperformance could...

Afridi Reyal

Staying Bullish Despite Near-Term Pullback Potential; Buy Pullbacks

Buying a pullback; SPX testing 6400-6410 now, but QQQ and IWM are violating short-term supports at $572 and $226. This makes us believe we could...

Vermilion Research

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