Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a>, CNXIT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF</a> rebalance at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across the indices is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest inflows are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-heavy-electricals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:460:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Heavy Electricals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26747:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Aeronautics</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation</a>.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index, NSE Nifty Bank Index, CNXIT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the CPSE ETF rebalance at the close tomorrow.
The round-trip trade across the indices is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest inflows are Trent, Bharat Electronics, Canara Bank, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp, Coal India, Hindustan Aeronautics and InterGlobe Aviation.


NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 19 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). With US$40.1bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes this year, though near-term performance has been meh. There was a similar trend in March and the adds could outperform nearer to implementation.</li>
</ul>


There are 19 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). With US$40.1bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The adds have outperformed the deletes this year, though near-term performance has been meh. There was a similar trend in March and the adds could outperform nearer to implementation.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>AntFin is looking to raise around US$400m by selling around 2% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a>.</li>
<li>Ant Group had earlier sold some of its stake in Nov 2023 and Mar 2024, with the deals producing a mixed bag result.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


AntFin is looking to raise around US$400m by selling around 2% of Zomato (ZOMATO IN).
Ant Group had earlier sold some of its stake in Nov 2023 and Mar 2024, with the deals producing a mixed bag result.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Zomato Placement - Momentum Is Very Strong, past Ant Related Deals Have Been Mixed

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Devyani’s (DIL) 1QFY25 results were below our estimates owing to persistent weakness in core brands (KFC and PH) and lower-than-expected performance of the International business on the back of currency devaluation</li><li>We continue to maintain our REDUCE rating with a TP of INR 150 (25x June-26 Pre IND-AS EV/EBITDA), as current valuations are fully factoring in a back-ended recovery (revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 25/30% over FY24-27).</li><li>1QFY25 results summary: Devyani’s (DIL) 1QFY25 results were below our estimates owing to persistent weakness in core brands (KFC and PH) and lower-than-expected performance of the International business on the back of currency devaluation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Devyani’s (DIL) 1QFY25 results were below our estimates owing to persistent weakness in core brands (KFC and PH) and lower-than-expected performance of the International business on the back of currency devaluationWe continue to maintain our REDUCE rating with a TP of INR 150 (25x June-26 Pre IND-AS EV/EBITDA), as current valuations are fully factoring in a back-ended recovery (revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 25/30% over FY24-27).1QFY25 results summary: Devyani’s (DIL) 1QFY25 results were below our estimates owing to persistent weakness in core brands (KFC and PH) and lower-than-expected performance of the International business on the back of currency devaluation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Devyani International: One More Quarter of Disappointing Performance. Maintain REDUCE

<ul><li>Devyani’s (DIL) 1QFY25 results were below our estimates owing to persistent weakness in core brands (KFC and PH) and lower-than-expected performance of the International business on the back of currency devaluation</li><li>We continue to maintain our REDUCE rating with a TP of INR 150 (25x June-26 Pre IND-AS EV/EBITDA), as current valuations are fully factoring in a back-ended recovery (revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 25/30% over FY24-27).</li><li>1QFY25 results summary: Devyani’s (DIL) 1QFY25 results were below our estimates owing to persistent weakness in core brands (KFC and PH) and lower-than-expected performance of the International business on the back of currency devaluation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Devyani’s (DIL) 1QFY25 results were below our estimates owing to persistent weakness in core brands (KFC and PH) and lower-than-expected performance of the International business on the back of currency devaluationWe continue to maintain our REDUCE rating with a TP of INR 150 (25x June-26 Pre IND-AS EV/EBITDA), as current valuations are fully factoring in a back-ended recovery (revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 25/30% over FY24-27).1QFY25 results summary: Devyani’s (DIL) 1QFY25 results were below our estimates owing to persistent weakness in core brands (KFC and PH) and lower-than-expected performance of the International business on the back of currency devaluation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Devyani International (1QFY25 Results Review): One More Quarter of Disappointing Performance.

India

Devyani International is one of India's largest and fastest-growing Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) operators, functioning as the largest franchisee for Yum! Brands, operating KFC and Pizza Hut outlets, and the exclusive franchisee for Costa Coffee in India. The company also develops its own brands, including Vaango and The Food Street. Devyani International was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Gurugram, Haryana, India.

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Devyani International (DEVYANI IN)

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

The next rebalance of the Nifty family of indices takes place at the close on 27 Sep. The round-trip trade is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 19 changes for the index in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). There are many...

Brian Freitas

Devyani International: One More Quarter of Disappointing Performance. Maintain REDUCE

Devyani’s (DIL) 1QFY25 results were below our estimates owing to persistent weakness in core brands (KFC and PH) and lower-than-expected...

HDFC Securities

Devyani International (1QFY25 Results Review): One More Quarter of Disappointing Performance.

Devyani’s (DIL) 1QFY25 results were below our estimates owing to persistent weakness in core brands (KFC and PH) and lower-than-expected...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

The next rebalance of the Nifty family of indices takes place at the close on 27 Sep. The round-trip trade is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 19 changes for the index in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). There are many...

Brian Freitas

Zomato Placement - Momentum Is Very Strong, past Ant Related Deals Have Been Mixed

AntFin is looking to raise around US$400m by selling around 2% of Zomato (ZOMATO IN). Past selldown's by AntFin have produced mixed results.

Sumeet Singh

Devyani International: One More Quarter of Disappointing Performance. Maintain REDUCE

Devyani’s (DIL) 1QFY25 results were below our estimates owing to persistent weakness in core brands (KFC and PH) and lower-than-expected...

HDFC Securities

Devyani International (1QFY25 Results Review): One More Quarter of Disappointing Performance.

Devyani’s (DIL) 1QFY25 results were below our estimates owing to persistent weakness in core brands (KFC and PH) and lower-than-expected...

HDFC Securities