Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in August 2024, Jakob Stausholm, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a>'s previous CEO, said any stock issuance to fund <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>'s takeover would just add a layer of complexity.</li>
<li>Eight months later, Stausholm "stepped down", with Simon Trot taking over the reins. Now the mining giant has revived talks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a>, via an all-scrip Offer.</li>
<li>Given Rio's dual-headed structure, the deal mechanics for Glencore have not been publicly fleshed out. The drop in the Aussie line is indicative. </li>
</ul>


Back in August 2024, Jakob Stausholm, Rio Tinto (RIO AU)'s previous CEO, said any stock issuance to fund Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)'s takeover would just add a layer of complexity.
Eight months later, Stausholm "stepped down", with Simon Trot taking over the reins. Now the mining giant has revived talks with Glencore Plc (GLEN LN), via an all-scrip Offer.
Given Rio's dual-headed structure, the deal mechanics for Glencore have not been publicly fleshed out. The drop in the Aussie line is indicative. 


Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia / Event-Driven

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004, as MSCI cites Indonesia's persistent ‘fundamental investability issues’.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on JCNC are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004, as MSCI cites Indonesia's persistent ‘fundamental investability issues’.
Preceding my comments on JCNC are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: JCNC's "Outperformance" As MSCI Flags Indo's Investability Issues

Mandarin Oriental International / Event-Driven

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

<ul>
<li>Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> is seeking to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a> at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>The Offer Price is a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Clean deal. And MAND has consistently traded tight to terms. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Shareholder%20Circular.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=867134" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme Doc is now out</a> for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a>'s 2021 takeover, there is no independent assessment report. </li>
</ul>


Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to privatise Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
The Offer Price is a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Clean deal. And MAND has consistently traded tight to terms. 
The Scheme Doc is now out for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As with Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)'s 2021 takeover, there is no independent assessment report. 


Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): 8th Dec Vote On Matheson's Offer

<ul>
<li>Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> announced on the 17th October an Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a>'s minorities at US$3.35/share.</li>
<li>This is a clean, full, "dull" Offer. And MAND is trading super tight to terms at ~2.1% gross, with possible payment (my estimate) late Feb 2026.</li>
<li>Proceeds from the OCB sale will be US$925mn. And taking out MAND's minorities will set Matheson back ~US$1bn. Yet the market is now assigning US$2.1bn less for Matheson's stub ops. </li>
</ul>


Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) announced on the 17th October an Offer for Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)'s minorities at US$3.35/share.
This is a clean, full, "dull" Offer. And MAND is trading super tight to terms at ~2.1% gross, with possible payment (my estimate) late Feb 2026.
Proceeds from the OCB sale will be US$925mn. And taking out MAND's minorities will set Matheson back ~US$1bn. Yet the market is now assigning US$2.1bn less for Matheson's stub ops. 


Jardine Matheson's Underperformance Post Mandarin Offer

<ul>
<li>The prior MO for the Jardines group was never sell your commercial buildings. This year marks a paradigm shift in that line of thinking. </li>
<li>First <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> sold nine floors of One Exchange Square to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>. The first such sale since 1988.</li>
<li>Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a> is negotiating the sale of "certain office space" at One Causeway Bay. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a>'s NAV discount and implied stub are at 12-month lows/highs.</li>
</ul>


The prior MO for the Jardines group was never sell your commercial buildings. This year marks a paradigm shift in that line of thinking. 
First Hongkong Land (HKL SP) sold nine floors of One Exchange Square to HKEX (388 HK). The first such sale since 1988.
Now Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) is negotiating the sale of "certain office space" at One Causeway Bay. Jardine Matheson (JM SP)'s NAV discount and implied stub are at 12-month lows/highs.


Jardine Matheson (JML SP): Additional Office Recycling Speculated

Hong Kong

DFI Retail Group is a leading pan-Asian retailer operating supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience stores, health and beauty stores, home furnishings stores, and restaurants. The company manages a portfolio of well-known brands including Wellcome, 7-Eleven, Mannings, Guardian, and IKEA. DFI Retail Group was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Quarry Bay, Hong Kong.

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DFI Retail Group (DFI SP)

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David Blennerhassett

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MSCI's review is a material overhang. Yet, even absent this index review fallout, I'd expect JCNC to benefit from an ongoing business review...

David Blennerhassett

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): 8th Dec Vote On Matheson's Offer

Clean, full Offer. MAND is trading around ~2.1%/10.8% gross/annualised, assuming late Jan 2026 payment. Expect more accretion/recycling to come in...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson's Underperformance Post Mandarin Offer

Proceeds from the OCB sale will be US$925mn. And taking out MAND minorities will cost Matheson ~US$1bn. Yet the market is now assigning US$2.1bn...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson (JML SP): Additional Office Recycling Speculated

MAND announced that it is selling thirteen floors of One Causeway Bay (OCB) to Alibaba (BABA US) for US$925mn. That's ~US$0.73/share. ...

David Blennerhassett

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