Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Yesterday after the close of trading, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/HKLH0906.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=682657" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a US$500mn share buyback program, which will run until 31st December 2022.</p>
<p>As the holding of treasury shares is not permitted in HKL’s constitution, any shares repurchased will be canceled.</p>
<p>Based on the average daily volume over the last year of US$9-10mn, this buyback is roughly equivalent to ~15% of daily volume through to 2022 year-end. That's pretty meaningful.</p>
<p>Jardine evidently believes it makes good business sense to buy back its own shares in place of deploying capital into HKL's investment and development property portfolio.</p>
<p>At a ~68% discount its NAV of US$14.75 (as at 30 June) - even after today's move - HKL is cheap. Jardines think so too.</p>
<p>Buy on any weakness.</p>

Yesterday after the close of trading, Hongkong Land (HKL SP) announced a US$500mn share buyback program, which will run until 31st December 2022.
As the holding of treasury shares is not permitted in HKL’s constitution, any shares repurchased will be canceled.
Based on the average daily volume over the last year of US$9-10mn, this buyback is roughly equivalent to ~15% of daily volume through to 2022 year-end. That's pretty meaningful.
Jardine evidently believes it makes good business sense to buy back its own shares in place of deploying capital into HKL's investment and development property portfolio.
At a ~68% discount its NAV of US$14.75 (as at 30 June) - even after today's move - HKL is cheap. Jardines think so too.
Buy on any weakness.

Event-Driven

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia / Event-Driven

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP)

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<p><em><strong>This week in StubWorld ...</strong></em></p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>, relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>, is around record-lows outside the Covid-affect low last year. This is occurring amid recent corporate developments within the Jardine stable of companies.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on JCNC are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP), relative to Astra International (ASII IJ), is around record-lows outside the Covid-affect low last year. This is occurring amid recent corporate developments within the Jardine stable of companies.



Preceding my comments on JCNC are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


<p>In my prior insight <em><a href="https://skr.ma/h4f6C" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson: Lessons in Dissent</a></em> on the 29 April, I thought <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> was unattractive at a 13% discount to NAV, plus near-term news may focus on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a>'s dissension rights, and Matheson's potential exposure thereon.</p>
<p>Matheson is down ~15% since that note (while the Straits Times Index is down ~4%). </p>
<p>Since that insight, Matheson released its <a href="https://www.jardines.com/assets/files/NewsAndEvents/corporate-press-releases/jardine-matheson/int21.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">interim results</a>, which not only provided clarity on the net debt at the parent level, which was largely guesswork amid the Matheson/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a> circularity; but also unlisted stub ops - especially Jardine Motors - performed exceptionally in the 1H21.</p>
<p>At a ~23% discount to NAV on adjusted historical NAVs, value <em>is</em> emerging. Yet Matheson is not an obvious buy here.</p>
<p>More below the fold. </p>

In my prior insight Jardine Matheson: Lessons in Dissent on the 29 April, I thought Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) was unattractive at a 13% discount to NAV, plus near-term news may focus on Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)'s dissension rights, and Matheson's potential exposure thereon.
Matheson is down ~15% since that note (while the Straits Times Index is down ~4%). 
Since that insight, Matheson released its interim results, which not only provided clarity on the net debt at the parent level, which was largely guesswork amid the Matheson/Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP) circularity; but also unlisted stub ops - especially Jardine Motors - performed exceptionally in the 1H21.
At a ~23% discount to NAV on adjusted historical NAVs, value is emerging. Yet Matheson is not an obvious buy here.
More below the fold. 

Jardine Matheson: Value Gradually Emerging Four Months On

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sheng-siong-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6824:1" rel="noopener">Sheng Siong (SSG SP)</a> online expansion could be a little late as other players already have established their strong footprint but there are many smaller players that specialize in certain products only. Sheng Siong offers a wholistic product offering to its customers and should be able to compete with the big boys league such as NTUC, Cold Storage and Red Mart. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The nature of online business typically allows a higher net margin compared to the brick and mortar business where property rent and depreciation are major burdens to the net income. The most conservative scenario still allows investors to make 19% while the normal scenario sees a potential upside of 100% from the online foray and some re-rating potential. Much to like on this new venture!</p></div>

Sheng Siong (SSG SP) online expansion could be a little late as other players already have established their strong footprint but there are many smaller players that specialize in certain products only. Sheng Siong offers a wholistic product offering to its customers and should be able to compete with the big boys league such as NTUC, Cold Storage and Red Mart. The nature of online business typically allows a higher net margin compared to the brick and mortar business where property rent and depreciation are major burdens to the net income. The most conservative scenario still allows investors to make 19% while the normal scenario sees a potential upside of 100% from the online foray and some re-rating potential. Much to like on this new venture!

<p>Since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>'s surprise <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/JMH%20J.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=651169" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> earlier this week to acquire the 15.11% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a> it does not own, I've fielded numerous questions concerning:</p>
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<li>Who is entitled to vote at the forthcoming shareholder meeting for Strategic?</li>
<li>What rights do minorities have if they object to the Offer?</li>
<li>Why is there not a shareholder meeting for Matheson shareholders to vote on the acquisition of Strategic?</li>
<li>What is an effective economic interest in a cross-holding?</li>
</ul>
<p>This insight answers these questions, among others.</p>
<p>Shareholders may feel aggrieved - and Matheson is getting Strategic for a bargain if simply eye-balling the long-term price chart.</p>
<p>But the risk to holding Strategic has been present ever since the Jardine's group moved the primary listings of their companies to the UK's Standard Board in 2014 from the Primary Board. </p>
<p>For a more detailed run-through of the transaction itself, please refer to <em><a href="https://skr.ma/p6cqh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson: Collapsing The Circularity</a></em>.</p>
<p>More below the fold. </p>

Since Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)'s surprise announcement earlier this week to acquire the 15.11% in Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP) it does not own, I've fielded numerous questions concerning:

Who is entitled to vote at the forthcoming shareholder meeting for Strategic?
What rights do minorities have if they object to the Offer?
Why is there not a shareholder meeting for Matheson shareholders to vote on the acquisition of Strategic?
What is an effective economic interest in a cross-holding?

This insight answers these questions, among others.
Shareholders may feel aggrieved - and Matheson is getting Strategic for a bargain if simply eye-balling the long-term price chart.
But the risk to holding Strategic has been present ever since the Jardine's group moved the primary listings of their companies to the UK's Standard Board in 2014 from the Primary Board. 
For a more detailed run-through of the transaction itself, please refer to Jardine Matheson: Collapsing The Circularity.
More below the fold. 

Hong Kong

DFI Retail Group is a leading pan-Asian retailer operating supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience stores, health and beauty stores, home furnishings stores, and restaurants. The company manages a portfolio of well-known brands including Wellcome, 7-Eleven, Mannings, Guardian, and IKEA. DFI Retail Group was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Quarry Bay, Hong Kong.

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DFI Retail Group (DFI SP)

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Jardine Strategic: What's Yours Is Mine

What rights do minorities have if they object to the Offer? Why is there not a shareholder meeting for Matheson shareholders to vote on the...

David Blennerhassett

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