Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p>The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<p>The first sector is <strong>Consumer</strong>, where H/A spreads widened on average 3.5% for the week. Individual stock movement in the sector was striking. All five liquid spreads widened, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> widened because the H-shares were down, and the other four widened because of extraordinary gains in the A-Shares. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were net purchasers on the week, especially in the auto-related H-shares. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> remain at the overbought end of the 52-week range. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> are at or near 52-week wides, and Tsingtao is pretty close. </p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week's recommendation was to continue to unwind the Hisense H/A spread, which widened 6% on the week. I also noted Great Wall and Guangzhou were worth a buy on a spread basis and they widened 2.9% on average. They were worth holding onto as spreads.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/642/original/Screenshot%202020-11-01%20at%2012.23.49%20PM.png?1604204650" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168642"></figure>
<p></p>
</section>
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<p>For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.</p>


The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...



H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. 



The first sector is Consumer, where H/A spreads widened on average 3.5% for the week. Individual stock movement in the sector was striking. All five liquid spreads widened, but Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) widened because the H-shares were down, and the other four widened because of extraordinary gains in the A-Shares. 


Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were net purchasers on the week, especially in the auto-related H-shares. 


Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) remain at the overbought end of the 52-week range. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) are at or near 52-week wides, and Tsingtao is pretty close. 




Last week's recommendation was to continue to unwind the Hisense H/A spread, which widened 6% on the week. I also noted Great Wall and Guangzhou were worth a buy on a spread basis and they widened 2.9% on average. They were worth holding onto as spreads.









For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.

Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spread Monitor 30 Oct 2020

<div>
<p>The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
<p>On average, </p>
<p>The first sector is <strong>Consumer</strong>, where H/A spreads widened on average 2.7% for the week, more than cancelling out the average 1.7% spread narrowing last week. With the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>, this happened as the H-shares rose strongly and the A-Shares rose even more strongly.  </p>
<p>Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were significant net sellers during the week in both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> where the net selling activity amounted to 15.5% and 22% of volume respectively. </p>
<p>Hisense remains at the overbought end of the 52-week range. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> are now at 52-week wides. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week's recommendation was to take off Hisense and the H-share fell 7.3% while the spread widened 0.7%. It is still probably worth unwinding. At this point, Great Wall and Guangzhou are worth a buy on a spread basis.</p>
</div>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/167/062/original/Screenshot%202020-10-24%20at%202.45.56%20PM.png?1603521970" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="167062"></figure>
</section>
<p></p>
<p>For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.</p>
</div>


The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...



H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. 

On average, 
The first sector is Consumer, where H/A spreads widened on average 2.7% for the week, more than cancelling out the average 1.7% spread narrowing last week. With the exception of Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK), this happened as the H-shares rose strongly and the A-Shares rose even more strongly.  
Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were significant net sellers during the week in both Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) and Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) where the net selling activity amounted to 15.5% and 22% of volume respectively. 
Hisense remains at the overbought end of the 52-week range. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) are now at 52-week wides. 

Last week's recommendation was to take off Hisense and the H-share fell 7.3% while the spread widened 0.7%. It is still probably worth unwinding. At this point, Great Wall and Guangzhou are worth a buy on a spread basis.





For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.


Quiddity Weekly H/​A: Share Spread Monitor 23 Oct 2020

<p>This insight re-introduces a weekly monitor for H-Share/A-Share spreads.</p>
<p>The monitor will be published every weekend for the data ending the previous week. It includes all stocks where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
<ul>
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the narrowest and widest spread and the average spread over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
<p>In the example for the H/A spreads in the <strong>Materials</strong> sector below, spreads were generally flat over the past five days and were wider by 1.5% over the past 20 days. Southbound were net buyers on average on the H side of each pair over both 5 days and 20 days. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-61153493-5437-47ee-a8d3-aec41fb7f1da" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26795:1" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)</a> are spreads at the relatively narrow end of their 52-week ranges, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-iron-steel-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:204:1" rel="noopener">Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel H (323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bbmg-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2821:1" rel="noopener">BBMG Corp H (2009 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinopec-shanghai-petrochemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17576:1" rel="noopener">Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (338 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK)</a> are at the wider end of their 52-week ranges. The average spread in the sector widened somewhat dramatically in the month of August as seen on the chart, but stabilized at the beginning of September.</p>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/714/original/Screenshot%202020-10-18%20at%202.00.22%20AM.png?1602957633" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165714"></figure>
<p></p>
</section>
</section>
<p>Commentary is offered for the major movers and influences along with market observations on the sector rotation movement and particularly significant changes.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Recommendations are in highlights like this.</p>
</div>
<section class="figure">
<p>More below the fold.  </p>
<hr>
<p><em>By the way, there are two versions of the Spread Evolution mini charts. Input is welcomed in the Discussion section as to which one is preferred (bars or lines).</em></p>
</section>

This insight re-introduces a weekly monitor for H-Share/A-Share spreads.
The monitor will be published every weekend for the data ending the previous week. It includes all stocks where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...

H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the narrowest and widest spread and the average spread over the last three years. 

In the example for the H/A spreads in the Materials sector below, spreads were generally flat over the past five days and were wider by 1.5% over the past 20 days. Southbound were net buyers on average on the H side of each pair over both 5 days and 20 days. Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK) and Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) are spreads at the relatively narrow end of their 52-week ranges, while Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel H (323 HK), BBMG Corp H (2009 HK), Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (338 HK), and Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK) are at the wider end of their 52-week ranges. The average spread in the sector widened somewhat dramatically in the month of August as seen on the chart, but stabilized at the beginning of September.






Commentary is offered for the major movers and influences along with market observations on the sector rotation movement and particularly significant changes.

Recommendations are in highlights like this.


More below the fold.  

By the way, there are two versions of the Spread Evolution mini charts. Input is welcomed in the Discussion section as to which one is preferred (bars or lines).


Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 16 Oct 2020

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kintor Pharmaceutical / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kintor-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28884:1" rel="noopener">Kintor Pharmaceutical (9939 HK)</a> is a clinical-stage drug developer with a focus on potential first-in-class and best-in-class drugs for cancers and androgen receptor-related (AR-related) diseases. Kintor has launched a Hong Kong IPO to raise net proceeds of $198-225 million.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kintor-pharma-ipo-initiation-to-screen-or-not-to-screen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that the core products (Proxalutamide/GT0918 and Pyrilutamide/KX-826) have good prospects. While the cornerstone support is good, there is a distinct lack of blue-chip cornerstone names. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is reasonable at the low-end. </p></div></div></div>

Kintor Pharmaceutical (9939 HK) is a clinical-stage drug developer with a focus on potential first-in-class and best-in-class drugs for cancers and androgen receptor-related (AR-related) diseases. Kintor has launched a Hong Kong IPO to raise net proceeds of $198-225 million.In our initiation note, we stated that the core products (Proxalutamide/GT0918 and Pyrilutamide/KX-826) have good prospects. While the cornerstone support is good, there is a distinct lack of blue-chip cornerstone names. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is reasonable at the low-end. 

Event-Driven

<p><em>This insight is an H/A Spread Monitor Project offering a brief look at recent changes in H-Share/A-Share spreads, Southbound flow and impact, and where the spreads are trading within their own historical ranges.</em></p>
<p><em>Generically, H/A spreads are trading just off their tightest levels in a year. Spreads which are closer to the wide end of their 52-week range include Great Wall Motor, Tsingtao, some insurers and brokers, a couple of materials names and a couple of industrials. The two biggest net Southbound flows this past week in HKD terms were both sells - Tencent (700 HK) and Bank of China (3988 HK) at just over $550mm each.</em></p>
<div>
<h2>The Nitty-Gritty Details Follow</h2>
</div>
<p>There are five sets of data for now:<br>1.   HK-Shanghai Connect Southbound Turnover and Net Buying vs Indices and HKEx Turnover<br>2.   Top 20 Net Southbound buys and sells over the last 5 days<br>3.   H-Share/A-Share Discounts, Changes in Discount over 1 and 4 wks, Changes in Southbound Flow<br>4.   Southbound Flow as a % of Volume and Float on All Eligible Stocks<br>5.   H-Share/A-Share Sector Discount Ranges and Averages Charted Over the Last 12 months </p>
<div>
<h2>Historical Southbound Flows:  Outright &amp; vs HKEx Turnover</h2>
</div>
<p>Net Southbound outflows ended their streak at 6mos with HKD 4.3bn coming in September. October is also up - now +HKD 3.9bn MTD.</p>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>Note: The charts below show <em>only</em> HK-Shanghai Connect. The HK-Shenzhen Southbound data shows similar patterns in the short time it has been live, and total volumes are on the order of 1/3 the size of HK-Shanghai Connect. </p>
</div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/066/696/original/Screen%20Shot%202018-10-15%20at%2010.56.05%20AM.png?1539572218" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="66696"></figure>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">source data: HKEx, Bloomberg</div>

This insight is an H/A Spread Monitor Project offering a brief look at recent changes in H-Share/A-Share spreads, Southbound flow and impact, and where the spreads are trading within their own historical ranges.
Generically, H/A spreads are trading just off their tightest levels in a year. Spreads which are closer to the wide end of their 52-week range include Great Wall Motor, Tsingtao, some insurers and brokers, a couple of materials names and a couple of industrials. The two biggest net Southbound flows this past week in HKD terms were both sells - Tencent (700 HK) and Bank of China (3988 HK) at just over $550mm each.

The Nitty-Gritty Details Follow

There are five sets of data for now: 1.   HK-Shanghai Connect Southbound Turnover and Net Buying vs Indices and HKEx Turnover 2.   Top 20 Net Southbound buys and sells over the last 5 days 3.   H-Share/A-Share Discounts, Changes in Discount over 1 and 4 wks, Changes in Southbound Flow 4.   Southbound Flow as a % of Volume and Float on All Eligible Stocks 5.   H-Share/A-Share Sector Discount Ranges and Averages Charted Over the Last 12 months 

Historical Southbound Flows:  Outright &amp; vs HKEx Turnover

Net Southbound outflows ended their streak at 6mos with HKD 4.3bn coming in September. October is also up - now +HKD 3.9bn MTD.

Note: The charts below show only HK-Shanghai Connect. The HK-Shenzhen Southbound data shows similar patterns in the short time it has been live, and total volumes are on the order of 1/3 the size of HK-Shanghai Connect. 


source data: HKEx, Bloomberg

Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spreads & Southbound Flows [Week to 12 Oct 2018]

China

Orient Securities Company Limited of China operates securities businesses. The Company provides securities brokerage, investment banking, asset management, fund management, and margin trading services. Orient Securities also conducts stock pledge and futures businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Orient Securities (3958 HK)

Kintor Pharma IPO: Valuation Insights

Kintor Pharmaceutical (9939 HK) is a clinical-stage drug developer with a focus on potential first-in-class and best-in-class drugs for cancers and...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spread Monitor 30 Oct 2020

The H-Share/​A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the previous week showing the 1wk and 4wk moves in H/A spreads and southbound activity....

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Weekly H/​A: Share Spread Monitor 23 Oct 2020

Quiddity H/A Spread Monitor for the week ending 23 October 2020. Spreads widened in Consumer, narrowed in every other sector. Southbound were...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 16 Oct 2020

Weekly Monitor for H-Share/A-Share spreads showing spread/discount performance, spread Z-scores, southbound buying and selling and net activity...

Travis Lundy

Kintor Pharma IPO: Valuation Insights

Kintor Pharmaceutical (9939 HK) is a clinical-stage drug developer with a focus on potential first-in-class and best-in-class drugs for cancers and...

Arun George

Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spreads & Southbound Flows [Week to 12 Oct 2018]

This insight is an H/A Spread Monitor Project offering a brief look at recent changes in H-Share/A-Share spreads, Southbound flow and impact, and...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 30 Oct 2020

The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the previous week showing the 1wk and 4wk moves in H/A spreads and southbound activity....

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 23 Oct 2020

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spreads & Southbound Flows [Week to 12 Oct 2018]