Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Barito Renewables Energy / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Minimum free float has been set at 15% with a timeline for companies to get there. A list of stocks with High Shareholding Concentration has also been released.</li>
<li>There could be 6 deletions from a global index in May with few other stocks having free float reductions. Estimated passive selling in Indonesia is US$1.3bn.</li>
<li>The changes to the free float thresholds and the improved disclosure brings Indonesia in line with other markets in Asia and should allay global index providers concerns.</li>
</ul>


Minimum free float has been set at 15% with a timeline for companies to get there. A list of stocks with High Shareholding Concentration has also been released.
There could be 6 deletions from a global index in May with few other stocks having free float reductions. Estimated passive selling in Indonesia is US$1.3bn.
The changes to the free float thresholds and the improved disclosure brings Indonesia in line with other markets in Asia and should allay global index providers concerns.


Indonesia: Updated Disclosures Could Lead to Multiple Deletions & Float Decreases in May

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<h2><strong>Summary points</strong></h2><ul>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>The best the <em>market</em> can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight">
<strong>Financialisation of commodities is a big</strong>…</div></li>
</ul>

Summary points
1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.
Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.
Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.
The best the market can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.

Financialisation of commodities is a big…


Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jakarta-stock-exchange-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22914:1" rel="noopener">Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)</a> fell further as there was no resolution yet with MSCI. </li>
<li>Some of the large-cap banks became ATMs for foreign investors, yet the local passive pensions are buying. Low floaters like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a>could still be problematic. </li>
<li>The risk is clear; the upside potential is also clear. Status quo means share prices will rebound. Some of the banks are paying high dividend. </li>
</ul>


As expected, Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX) fell further as there was no resolution yet with MSCI. 
Some of the large-cap banks became ATMs for foreign investors, yet the local passive pensions are buying. Low floaters like Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)could still be problematic. 
The risk is clear; the upside potential is also clear. Status quo means share prices will rebound. Some of the banks are paying high dividend. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15734:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ)</a>' recent rally could result in the stock being added to a global index in February. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15734:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ)</a> trades marginally cheaper than its largest peers but all these stocks trade at more than 40x trailing PE.</li>
<li>Positioning appears stretched following the recent rally and there could be downside over the near-term. Trimming positions into strength appears prudent.</li>
</ul>



Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ)' recent rally could result in the stock being added to a global index in February. 

Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) trades marginally cheaper than its largest peers but all these stocks trade at more than 40x trailing PE.
Positioning appears stretched following the recent rally and there could be downside over the near-term. Trimming positions into strength appears prudent.


Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion in Feb

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

<ul><li>Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE September 2025 rebalance.</li><li>GLN is expected to enter the Top 40 index, with APN falling out.</li><li>No changes are expected for the FINDI, FINI, INDI or RESI indices.</li></ul>

Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE September 2025 rebalance.GLN is expected to enter the Top 40 index, with APN falling out.No changes are expected for the FINDI, FINI, INDI or RESI indices.

JSE Sep ‘25 Rebalance: GLN Expected to Enter Top 40, APN to Fall Out

Indonesia

PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk is a diversified Indonesian conglomerate focusing on energy and infrastructure. It operates across core business lines including mining, renewable energy, digital infrastructure and technology, chemical trading, and investments. The company offers a diverse portfolio of products and services such as electricity, coal, internet and pay TV services, data centers, healthcare solutions, pesticides, fertilizers, and industrial chemicals. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, the company was established on August 2, 1996.

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Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)

Indonesia: Updated Disclosures Could Lead to Multiple Deletions & Float Decreases in May

Min free float raised to 15% and companies given time to get there. High Shareholding Concentration list is out. There could be 6 deletions in May...

Brian Freitas

Oil After 50%: Where Now for Stocks?

Summary points 1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion. Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves...

Mark Artherton

Indo Downgrade: Update

Jakarta Stock Exchange Index falls as MSCI resolution remains unresolved, foreign investors sell while local pensions buy, share prices expected...

Henry Soediarko

Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion in Feb

Bumi Resources could be added to a global index in Feb. Positioning appears stretched and valuations are expensive. Trimming positions into...

Brian Freitas

JSE Sep ‘25 Rebalance: GLN Expected to Enter Top 40, APN to Fall Out

M. Aug ‘25 Rebalance: SSW to enter SA, ACWI / APN, KIO & WHL exiting. Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE September 2025 rebalance.

DMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indonesia: Updated Disclosures Could Lead to Multiple Deletions & Float Decreases in May

Min free float raised to 15% and companies given time to get there. High Shareholding Concentration list is out. There could be 6 deletions in May...

Brian Freitas

Oil After 50%: Where Now for Stocks?

Summary points 1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion. Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves...

Mark Artherton

Indo Downgrade: Update

​Jakarta Stock Exchange Index falls as MSCI resolution remains unresolved, foreign investors sell while local pensions buy, share prices expected...

Henry Soediarko

Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion in Feb

Bumi Resources could be added to a global index in Feb. Positioning appears stretched and valuations are expensive. Trimming positions into...

Brian Freitas

JSE Sep ‘25 Rebalance: GLN Expected to Enter Top 40, APN to Fall Out

M. Aug ‘25 Rebalance: SSW to enter SA, ACWI / APN, KIO & WHL exiting. Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE September 2025 rebalance.

DMA

Jakarta Stock Exchange Index falls as MSCI resolution remains unresolved, foreign investors sell while local pensions buy, share prices expected...