Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we present our expectations for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the December 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one change for ASX 100 and six changes for ASX 200. We do not see any changes for ASX 20 and ASX 50.</li>
<li>There could also be intra-review index changes over the next few months. By our current measure, those will be quite big in dollar terms and ADV impact.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we present our expectations for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the December 2026 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 100 and six changes for ASX 200. We do not see any changes for ASX 20 and ASX 50.
There could also be intra-review index changes over the next few months. By our current measure, those will be quite big in dollar terms and ADV impact.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec26: Multiple Changes During the Rebal + Some Intra-Review Changes

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Dicker Data's record backlog, accelerating AI sales and expanding software business have prompted substantial upgrades to earnings forecasts.</li><li> Dicker Data&rsquo;s interim result proved much better than forecasts AI And Data Centres Drive Upgrades/Record backlog Rising AI sales contribute to margin pressure Stock is one of scarce AI exposures outside the ASX100</li></ul>

Dicker Data's record backlog, accelerating AI sales and expanding software business have prompted substantial upgrades to earnings forecasts. Dicker Data&rsquo;s interim result proved much better than forecasts AI And Data Centres Drive Upgrades/Record backlog Rising AI sales contribute to margin pressure Stock is one of scarce AI exposures outside the ASX100

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes for the ASX50, 1 for the ASX100, 6 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 16 adds/11 deletes for the ASX300 in September.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, but outperformance has reduced for the ASX50/ASX200 indices and has increased for the ASX100/ASX300 indices.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes for the ASX50, 1 for the ASX100, 6 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 16 adds/11 deletes for the ASX300 in September.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, but outperformance has reduced for the ASX50/ASX200 indices and has increased for the ASX100/ASX300 indices.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

<ul><li>FY25 results for Dicker Data slightly disappointed investors, mainly due to a new dividend payout strategy, but management anticipates significant AI-related growth opportunities.</li><li> Dicker Data&rsquo;s FY25 results slightly missed expectations on a cut in dividend and lower-margin outlook Dividend payout policy reduced to create more flexibility to fund growth opportunities Anticipated recovery in spending by small and medium-sized businesses (SMB) central in company's outlook Management has identified AI factories and data centre infrastructure as future growth drivers</li></ul>

FY25 results for Dicker Data slightly disappointed investors, mainly due to a new dividend payout strategy, but management anticipates significant AI-related growth opportunities. Dicker Data&rsquo;s FY25 results slightly missed expectations on a cut in dividend and lower-margin outlook Dividend payout policy reduced to create more flexibility to fund growth opportunities Anticipated recovery in spending by small and medium-sized businesses (SMB) central in company's outlook Management has identified AI factories and data centre infrastructure as future growth drivers

Dicker Data Counts On IT Spending, Data Centres

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> merger should complete mid-November while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a>'s acquisition could complete by end-November.</li>
<li>There will be ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index</a> following the merger and the acquisition to maintain the number of index constituents.</li>
<li>Then there will be more changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)/ Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) merger should complete mid-November while Steadfast (SDF AU)'s acquisition could complete by end-November.
There will be ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index following the merger and the acquisition to maintain the number of index constituents.
Then there will be more changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index at the December rebalance.


S&P/ASX Indices: M&A-Driven Ad Hoc Changes in Nov & Impact on the Dec Rebalance

Australia

Dicker Data Limited is an IT product distributor based in Australia.

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Dicker Data Ltd (DDR AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec26: Multiple Changes During the Rebal + Some Intra-Review Changes

Although we currently see zero changes for ASX 50, there are multiple potential DELs close to the deletion border. If they underperform other...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

AI Sales Reshape Dicker Data's Momentum

Dicker Data's record backlog, accelerating AI sales and expanding software business have prompted substantial upgrades to earnings...

FNArena

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 45 changes across the ASX family of indices in Sept. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Short interest is...

Brian Freitas

Dicker Data Counts On IT Spending, Data Centres

FY25 results for Dicker Data slightly disappointed investors, mainly due to a new dividend payout strategy, but management anticipates significant...

FNArena

S&P/ASX Indices: M&A-Driven Ad Hoc Changes in Nov & Impact on the Dec Rebalance

The Genesis/Vault merger and the Steadfast acquisition are expected to complete in Nov. That leads to adhoc index inclusions and other flows. Then...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec26: Multiple Changes During the Rebal + Some Intra-Review Changes

Although we currently see zero changes for ASX 50, there are multiple potential DELs close to the deletion border. If they underperform other...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

AI Sales Reshape Dicker Data's Momentum

Dicker Data's record backlog, accelerating AI sales and expanding software business have prompted substantial upgrades to earnings...

FNArena

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 45 changes across the ASX family of indices in Sept. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Short interest is...

Brian Freitas

Dicker Data Counts On IT Spending, Data Centres

FY25 results for Dicker Data slightly disappointed investors, mainly due to a new dividend payout strategy, but management anticipates significant...

FNArena

S&P/ASX Indices: M&A-Driven Ad Hoc Changes in Nov & Impact on the Dec Rebalance

The Genesis/Vault merger and the Steadfast acquisition are expected to complete in Nov. That leads to adhoc index inclusions and other flows. Then...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact