External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Ord Minnett

Ord Minnett

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Ord Minnett is a leading Australian wealth management group, incorporating full-service stockbroking, financial planning and funds management. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>GMD’s 3Q24 result came in slightly softer than our expectations as lower UG material mined at Gwala combined with lower throughput.</li><li>The former occurred as paste filling was prioritised with ore mining expected to return to the 700-800kt pa run-rate in June, whilst mill processing was impacted by a 48hr mill reline.</li><li>Recent FY24 guidance is unchanged, and the 5-year mine plan shows an organic growth path to +300koz – a differentiating factor (vs peers). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GMD’s 3Q24 result came in slightly softer than our expectations as lower UG material mined at Gwala combined with lower throughput.The former occurred as paste filling was prioritised with ore mining expected to return to the 700-800kt pa run-rate in June, whilst mill processing was impacted by a 48hr mill reline.Recent FY24 guidance is unchanged, and the 5-year mine plan shows an organic growth path to +300koz – a differentiating factor (vs peers). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Genesis Minerals Limited - Result Slightly Softer, Foundations Being Laid

<ul>
<li>GMD produced a solid 2Q24 result – coming broadly in-line with our estimates despite a seismic event at Gwalia (proximal to the 1729 level).</li>
<li>Although early days since Leonora ownership (30 June 2023), early signs (~140Koz pa at ~A$2,115/oz AISC) are positive compared to recent historical production (120-130koz pa at ~A$2,521/oz).</li>
<li>We retain our Hold Recommendation on valuation grounds (1.1x P/NAV vs 0.9x peers and 9.9x EV/EBITDA vs 4.3x peers) and await the 5-year outlook (~March 2024), which should outline a more granular path towards the Company’s growth ambitions (+300koz).</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


GMD produced a solid 2Q24 result – coming broadly in-line with our estimates despite a seismic event at Gwalia (proximal to the 1729 level).
Although early days since Leonora ownership (30 June 2023), early signs (~140Koz pa at ~A$2,115/oz AISC) are positive compared to recent historical production (120-130koz pa at ~A$2,521/oz).
We retain our Hold Recommendation on valuation grounds (1.1x P/NAV vs 0.9x peers and 9.9x EV/EBITDA vs 4.3x peers) and await the 5-year outlook (~March 2024), which should outline a more granular path towards the Company’s growth ambitions (+300koz).

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Genesis Minerals Limited - 2Q24: Solid – Awaiting 5-Year Outlook in March

<ul><li>We initiate coverage on Genesis (GMD), as part of an expansion of our coverage within the Gold Mining Sector, with a Hold Recommendation and A$1.70/sh Target Price.</li><li>We understand investor optimism towards GMD, given management quality/reputation, strength of balance sheet (A$160m cash, no debt) and strong organic growth pipeline (~290koz by FY28).</li><li>However, we temper this against a high valuation, where the Company trades at a significant premium to its peer cohort (1.3x P/NAV vs 1x peers and 12.4x EV/EBITDA vs 6.1x peers). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We initiate coverage on Genesis (GMD), as part of an expansion of our coverage within the Gold Mining Sector, with a Hold Recommendation and A$1.70/sh Target Price.We understand investor optimism towards GMD, given management quality/reputation, strength of balance sheet (A$160m cash, no debt) and strong organic growth pipeline (~290koz by FY28).However, we temper this against a high valuation, where the Company trades at a significant premium to its peer cohort (1.3x P/NAV vs 1x peers and 12.4x EV/EBITDA vs 6.1x peers). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Genesis Minerals Limited - Initiate with Hold: Good Foundation with Organic Growth, but Fully Priced

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">REMX US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">GDXJ US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-property-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30998:1" rel="noopener">MVA AU</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">MVW AU</a> and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.</li>
<li>Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.</li>
</ul>


Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, REMX US, GDXJ US, MVA AU, MVW AU and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.
There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.
Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.


Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The September 2023 review results for ASX indices were announced after the close on Friday 1st September 2023. </li>
<li>There will be 15 ADD names and 15 DELETE names across ASX 100, ASX 200, and ASX 300. Collectively, the ADDs could see one-way flow of roughly US$450mn. </li>
<li>Many names have a significant number of days to trade. Some of these names have seen a spike in short interest recently. This should be an interesting flow event.</li>
</ul>


The September 2023 review results for ASX indices were announced after the close on Friday 1st September 2023. 
There will be 15 ADD names and 15 DELETE names across ASX 100, ASX 200, and ASX 300. Collectively, the ADDs could see one-way flow of roughly US$450mn. 
Many names have a significant number of days to trade. Some of these names have seen a spike in short interest recently. This should be an interesting flow event.


Quiddity ASX Sep 23 Rebal: 15 Inflow/Outflow Names; Beware of Short Buildup; US$450mn One-Way

Australia

Genesis Minerals Limited is an Australian-based mineral exploration company. The Company acquires commercially significant mineral deposits that can be brought into production.

Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)

Genesis Minerals Limited - Result Slightly Softer, Foundations Being Laid

GMD’s 3Q24 result came in slightly softer than our expectations as lower UG material mined at Gwala combined with lower throughput.

Ord Minnett

Genesis Minerals Limited - 2Q24: Solid – Awaiting 5-Year Outlook in March

GMD produced a solid 2Q24 result – coming broadly in-line with our estimates despite a seismic event at Gwalia (proximal to the 1729 level).

Ord Minnett

Genesis Minerals Limited - Initiate with Hold: Good Foundation with Organic Growth, but Fully Priced

We initiate coverage on Genesis (GMD), as part of an expansion of our coverage within the Gold Mining Sector, with a Hold Recommendation and A$1.70...

Ord Minnett

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity ASX Sep 23 Rebal: 15 Inflow/Outflow Names; Beware of Short Buildup; US$450mn One-Way

The Inclusion/Exclusion events can be expected to take place at the close of Friday 15th September 2023. I would be Bullish Inflow Names and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA