Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-re" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30999:1" rel="noopener">Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU)</a> in June.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.</li>
<li>There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals</a>, it is much higher in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals</a>.</li>
</ul>



Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU) in June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.
There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in Capricorn Metals, it is much higher in Genesis Minerals.


MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter Securities is a leading Australian stockbroking, investment and financial advisory firm that provides a comprehensive offering of financial services to individuals, institutions and corporations. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q report: record production and $91m added to cashGold sales were 59.2koz, at All-in-Sustaining Costs (AISC) of A$2,323/oz and average gold price A$4,496/oz.</li><li>The closing cash and liquids balance increased by $111m to $348m.</li><li>The company reiterated that it remains on track to meet FY25 guidance 190koz-to-210koz at A$2,200/oz-to-A$2,400/oz.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3Q report: record production and $91m added to cashGold sales were 59.2koz, at All-in-Sustaining Costs (AISC) of A$2,323/oz and average gold price A$4,496/oz.The closing cash and liquids balance increased by $111m to $348m.The company reiterated that it remains on track to meet FY25 guidance 190koz-to-210koz at A$2,200/oz-to-A$2,400/oz.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD): The Market’s Preferred Gold Stock?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Ord Minnett

Ord Minnett

Ord Minnett is a leading Australian wealth management group, incorporating full-service stockbroking, financial planning and funds management. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>GMD delivered a mixed result where better production (+10% vs OMLe) offset higher costs (+6% vs OMLe).</li><li>The Company is on track to exceed FY25 guidance (OMLe: 215koz at A$2,367/oz AISC) as well as previously disclosed FY26 estimates (OMLe: 255koz at A$2,333/oz AISC) given the acceleration plans that are unfolding.</li><li>Delivery in this pricing environment is being well-rewarded (stock up +75% YTD), and GMD is differentiated by production growth (+50% over by FY28) and its management team. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GMD delivered a mixed result where better production (+10% vs OMLe) offset higher costs (+6% vs OMLe).The Company is on track to exceed FY25 guidance (OMLe: 215koz at A$2,367/oz AISC) as well as previously disclosed FY26 estimates (OMLe: 255koz at A$2,333/oz AISC) given the acceleration plans that are unfolding.Delivery in this pricing environment is being well-rewarded (stock up +75% YTD), and GMD is differentiated by production growth (+50% over by FY28) and its management team. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Genesis Minerals Limited - Tapping the Brakes

<ul><li>1H25 was solid as earnings came in-line with our expectations and slightly exceeded consensus (+3% vs consensus EBITDA), with the latter largely driven by capitalised exploration.</li><li>The balance sheet remains strong (A$202m cash) with a new undrawn debt facility (A$120m) more likely to be used on organic growth opportunities rather than M&amp;A in this higher price environment.</li><li>We see upside risk to FY25 guidance (OMLe: 214koz vs 190-210koz Guidance) and potential for growth projects to be brought forward which should see near-term momentum continue. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

1H25 was solid as earnings came in-line with our expectations and slightly exceeded consensus (+3% vs consensus EBITDA), with the latter largely driven by capitalised exploration.The balance sheet remains strong (A$202m cash) with a new undrawn debt facility (A$120m) more likely to be used on organic growth opportunities rather than M&amp;A in this higher price environment.We see upside risk to FY25 guidance (OMLe: 214koz vs 190-210koz Guidance) and potential for growth projects to be brought forward which should see near-term momentum continue. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Genesis Minerals Limited - Organic Growth > M&A

<ul><li>GMD produced a strong 2Q result with production exceeding our estimates and consensus by 15% and 18% respectfully.</li><li>We now believe the company will exceed FY25 guidance (OMLe: 214koz vs 190- 210koz) and expect further momentum in the name as growth acceleration plans unfold.</li><li>A lofty valuation (1.5x P/NAV, 6.9x EV/EBITDA, 5.4% FCF yield) leaves little room for error and keeps us from a more constructive recommendation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GMD produced a strong 2Q result with production exceeding our estimates and consensus by 15% and 18% respectfully.We now believe the company will exceed FY25 guidance (OMLe: 214koz vs 190- 210koz) and expect further momentum in the name as growth acceleration plans unfold.A lofty valuation (1.5x P/NAV, 6.9x EV/EBITDA, 5.4% FCF yield) leaves little room for error and keeps us from a more constructive recommendation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Genesis Minerals Limited - Driving with a Heavy Foot

Australia

Genesis Minerals Limited is an Australian-based mineral exploration company. The Company acquires commercially significant mineral deposits that can be brought into production.

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Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)

MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes

The 2 adds and float/capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m. Shorts have been covering both adds, but...

Brian Freitas

Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD): The Market’s Preferred Gold Stock?

3Q report: record production and $91m added to cashGold sales were 59.2koz, at All-in-Sustaining Costs (AISC) of A$2,323/oz and average gold price...

Bell Potter

Genesis Minerals Limited - Tapping the Brakes

Delivery in this pricing environment is being well-rewarded (stock up +75% YTD), and GMD is differentiated by production growth (+50% over by FY28)...

Ord Minnett

Genesis Minerals Limited - Organic Growth > M&A

Limited upside to our fair value assumption (A$3.30/sh) and a lofty valuation (1.7x P/NAV) precludes us from a more constructive view (currently:...

Ord Minnett

Genesis Minerals Limited - Driving with a Heavy Foot

We now believe the company will exceed FY25 guidance (OMLe: 214koz vs 190- 210koz) and expect further momentum in the name as growth acceleration...

Ord Minnett

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