Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>China segment firm in Q2, but its strength was overwhelmed by weakness in International</li>
<li>International segment continued to bleed cash in Q2, mostly offsetting China gains</li>
<li>As uneven performence continues, Didi may start to feel pressure to relist shares</li>
</ul>


China segment firm in Q2, but its strength was overwhelmed by weakness in International
International segment continued to bleed cash in Q2, mostly offsetting China gains
As uneven performence continues, Didi may start to feel pressure to relist shares


Didi Q226: More of the Same, as China Shines, International Struggles | Pressure to Relist Rising

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 8.45% in September and 60.89% and 62.80% YTD and since launch one year ago.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by more than 40%.</li>
<li>The portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 3.23 YTD and has generated more than 40% of its returns from stock-picking (alpha).  Its beta is low at only 1.17.</li>
<li>At the end of September, we increased exposure to AI and robotics and sold positions in the consumer and finance sectors.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 8.45% in September and 60.89% and 62.80% YTD and since launch one year ago.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by more than 40%.
The portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 3.23 YTD and has generated more than 40% of its returns from stock-picking (alpha).  Its beta is low at only 1.17.
At the end of September, we increased exposure to AI and robotics and sold positions in the consumer and finance sectors.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2025)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha Portfolio returned 5.23% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 5.92%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 10.36% to 14.38% since its inception on 10/01/24.</li>
<li>About 80% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation.  The portfolio has no exposure to Real Estate, Healthcare, Materials, or Energy at this time.</li>
<li>At month end, we sold ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance C (6060 HK) , China Longyuan Power (916 HK) , CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a> .</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Alpha Portfolio returned 5.23% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 5.92%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 10.36% to 14.38% since its inception on 10/01/24.
About 80% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation.  The portfolio has no exposure to Real Estate, Healthcare, Materials, or Energy at this time.
At month end, we sold ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance C (6060 HK) , China Longyuan Power (916 HK) , CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK), and Weibo (9898 HK) .


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (December 2024)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a> has begun to generate positive EBITDA after several challenging years post-IPO.  With a high degree of operating leverage, the company is poised to grow quickly.
</li>
<li>Didi which maintains a 70% market share in the ride-hailing industry in China is expanding into Tier 3 cities where there is a large untapped opportunity.</li>
<li>The company has indicated that it wants to list in Hong Kong in 2025 providing a catalyst for share price re-rating next year.</li>
</ul>



DiDi Global (DIDI US) has begun to generate positive EBITDA after several challenging years post-IPO.  With a high degree of operating leverage, the company is poised to grow quickly.

Didi which maintains a 70% market share in the ride-hailing industry in China is expanding into Tier 3 cities where there is a large untapped opportunity.
The company has indicated that it wants to list in Hong Kong in 2025 providing a catalyst for share price re-rating next year.


2025 High Conviction Idea - DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> having sold some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive</a> this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


With Toyota (7203 JP) having sold some of its stake in Denso, KDDI and Harmonic Drive this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.
Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

China

DiDi Chuxing Inc operates passenger transportation platforms. The Company provides mobility solutions, cloud computing, and other application based services. DiDi Chuxing serves customers worldwide.

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DiDi Global (DIDIY US)

Didi Q226: More of the Same, as China Shines, International Struggles | Pressure to Relist Rising

In Q226, Didi Global reported a set of earnings results that looked a lot like results from Q126. Solid performance from core China segment is...

Tracking Traffic

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2025)

Due to the sudden escalation of US/China tensions we have decided to reduce AI and other risk exposure in the Hong Kong Alpha portfolio at the open...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (December 2024)

Hong Kong Alpha porfolio returned 5.29% in December and has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 10% to 14% since its inception on 10/01/24.The...

David Mudd

2025 High Conviction Idea - DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits

Didi's share price has now broken major resistance levels at $5 and $6 on surging volume. The company's profit remains on track to double in 2025....

David Mudd

Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Toyota, Toyota Industries and Denso are tag teaming to unwind some of their stake in Aisin, in a deal worth over US$1bn. While the timing of the...

Sumeet Singh

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