Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Asia's cybersecurity companies will benefit from escalating AI fear-mongering and actual security breaches that are increasing in number and sophistication.  US cybersecurity firms have rallied since the Mythos breach.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-arts-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2846:1" rel="noopener">Digital Arts (2326 JP)</a> have returns above WACC, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ahnlab-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19824:1" rel="noopener">Ahnlab Inc (053800 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/systex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19814:1" rel="noopener">Systex Corp (6214 TT) shares have recently advanced.</a>
</li>
<li>Since 2023, China has implemented AI safety measures, progressively shifting from controlling content and labor market impacts to ensuring reliability, preventing loss of model control, and ensuring human autonomy.  </li>
</ul>


Asia's cybersecurity companies will benefit from escalating AI fear-mongering and actual security breaches that are increasing in number and sophistication.  US cybersecurity firms have rallied since the Mythos breach.

Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP) and Digital Arts (2326 JP) have returns above WACC, while Ahnlab Inc (053800 KS) and Systex Corp (6214 TT) shares have recently advanced.

Since 2023, China has implemented AI safety measures, progressively shifting from controlling content and labor market impacts to ensuring reliability, preventing loss of model control, and ensuring human autonomy.  


ASIA CYBERSECURITY PLAYS: How to Make Money Before the Apocalypse !!

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>F&amp;M Co., Ltd. is a 35-year-old Osaka-based back-office outsourcer for Japan’s sole proprietors and small/mid-size companies</li><li>Selling bookkeeping (Accounting Service), a membership and subsidy-application consulting service branded “F&amp;M Club” (Consulting), and cloud HR/labor-administration software branded “Office Station” (Business Solutions)</li><li>Distributed almost entirely through regional banks and tax/labor-consultant firms rather than direct sales.</li></ul>

F&amp;M Co., Ltd. is a 35-year-old Osaka-based back-office outsourcer for Japan’s sole proprietors and small/mid-size companiesSelling bookkeeping (Accounting Service), a membership and subsidy-application consulting service branded “F&amp;M Club” (Consulting), and cloud HR/labor-administration software branded “Office Station” (Business Solutions)Distributed almost entirely through regional banks and tax/labor-consultant firms rather than direct sales.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight">
In this Smartkarma Original, we provide a detailed analysis of the cybersecurity disruptors in Asia and the major drivers of the cybersecurity market which are as follows:
<ul>
<li>The rise in malware &amp; cyber attacks globally</li>
<li>The fast pace of digitalization contributing to risk</li>
<li>The COVID-19 pandemic &amp; strong demand for cloud-based cyber security solutions</li>
</ul>
In this insight, we highlight 42 public and 20 private companies that are related to the cybersecurity market in five Asian countries including China, Japan, India, Korea, and Australia. The total market cap of these 42 public companies is US$347 billion. 
In addition, we discuss about the comments made about the potential global cyberattacks as explained by Klaus Schwab, the founder of the World Economic Forum. His idea is that a major global cyberattack could be worse than the COVID-19 crisis. 
If there is a world-wide cyberattack, there will be a greater pressure to immunize the global Internet with digital vaccines and antibodies to protect the society from cyberattacks and if this crisis is massive enough in terms of public health crisis, this could result in the use of emergency powers once again to justify the centralization of power and control. Of course, this is just a speculation and it is nearly impossible to know in advance if and when such a massive cyberattack will occur. 
</div>


In this Smartkarma Original, we provide a detailed analysis of the cybersecurity disruptors in Asia and the major drivers of the cybersecurity market which are as follows:

The rise in malware &amp; cyber attacks globally
The fast pace of digitalization contributing to risk
The COVID-19 pandemic &amp; strong demand for cloud-based cyber security solutions

In this insight, we highlight 42 public and 20 private companies that are related to the cybersecurity market in five Asian countries including China, Japan, India, Korea, and Australia. The total market cap of these 42 public companies is US$347 billion. 
In addition, we discuss about the comments made about the potential global cyberattacks as explained by Klaus Schwab, the founder of the World Economic Forum. His idea is that a major global cyberattack could be worse than the COVID-19 crisis. 
If there is a world-wide cyberattack, there will be a greater pressure to immunize the global Internet with digital vaccines and antibodies to protect the society from cyberattacks and if this crisis is massive enough in terms of public health crisis, this could result in the use of emergency powers once again to justify the centralization of power and control. Of course, this is just a speculation and it is nearly impossible to know in advance if and when such a massive cyberattack will occur. 


The Cybersecurity Disruptors in Asia & A Global Cyber Attack Worse than the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The risk of a pullback remains very real, however at this point the weight of the evidence suggests a meaningful pullback is not imminent. We recap important technical levels across market as well as Actionable Themes within the Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Technology sectors.

The risk of a pullback remains very real, however at this point the weight of the evidence suggests a meaningful pullback is not imminent. We recap important technical levels across market as well as Actionable Themes within the Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Technology sectors.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/132/original/2019-03-25_18-58-11.png?1553507902" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83132"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 Information &amp; Communication sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have excluded Telecommunications (including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">S</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">oftbank Group (9984 JP)</a>) and Information Technology companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. The broad themes that are developed in DETAIL below are grouped into six topics as follows: - • SUMMARY •  • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW •  • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE •  • RESULTS TRENDS •  • VALUATION • • RECOMMENDATIONS •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/206/original/2019-03-25_17-46-58.png?1553565764" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83206"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OVERVIEW - As will be covered in greater DETAIL below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a Relative Price Score that has moved in a narrow range over that period. The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'.


Source: Japan Analytics
There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 Information &amp; Communication sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have excluded Telecommunications (including Softbank Group (9984 JP)) and Information Technology companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. The broad themes that are developed in DETAIL below are grouped into six topics as follows: - • SUMMARY •  • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW •  • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE •  • RESULTS TRENDS •  • VALUATION • • RECOMMENDATIONS •Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERVIEW - As will be covered in greater DETAIL below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a Relative Price Score that has moved in a narrow range over that period. The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - Softbank Group (9984 JP)'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'. 

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

Japan

Digital Arts Inc. develops Internet filtering software for business, private, and educational use.  Its product protects users and network from harmful Internet contents and prevents inappropriate usages.

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Digital Arts (2326 JP)

ASIA CYBERSECURITY PLAYS: How to Make Money Before the Apocalypse !!

Asia's cybersecurity companies will benefit from escalating AI fear-mongering and actual security breaches. US cybersecurity firms have rallied...

David Mudd

Monday Delight: 24/08/2026

F&M Co., Ltd. is a 35-year-old Osaka-based back-office outsourcer for Japan’s sole proprietors and small/mid-size companies Selling...

Contrarian Cashflows

The Cybersecurity Disruptors in Asia & A Global Cyber Attack Worse than the COVID-19 Pandemic?

In this Smartkarma Original, we provide a detailed analysis of the cybersecurity disruptors in Asia and the major drivers of the cybersecurity market.

Douglas Kim

Battleground Spot For Global Equities

The risk of a pullback remains very real, however at this point the weight of the evidence suggests a meaningful pullback is not imminent. We recap...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33...

Campbell Gunn

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