European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 6 April, Bidco and Dignity confirmed that the FCA Change in Control Condition had been satisfied on 5 April. The new Unconditional Date is 4 May 2023.</li>
<li>Bidco has so far irrevocables and letters of intent in respect of 39.12%. The end of the life of Dignity as a listed company is nigh.</li>
<li>Spread to cash offer is 3.6%/42% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement on 18 May). Long/<strong>tender to the cash offer</strong>. The Alternative Offers are either Valderrama D shares (unlisted) or Castelnau shares (illiquid).</li>
</ul>


On 6 April, Bidco and Dignity confirmed that the FCA Change in Control Condition had been satisfied on 5 April. The new Unconditional Date is 4 May 2023.
Bidco has so far irrevocables and letters of intent in respect of 39.12%. The end of the life of Dignity as a listed company is nigh.
Spread to cash offer is 3.6%/42% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement on 18 May). Long/tender to the cash offer. The Alternative Offers are either Valderrama D shares (unlisted) or Castelnau shares (illiquid).


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/pe-buyer-chases-invocare-stake-ubs-runs-raid-20230306-p5cpvl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that TPG Capital, through UBS, is seeking to acquire 14.4m or 10.00% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>'s outstanding shares at A$12.65, a 41.3% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>If the aftermarket raid is successful, TPG will follow the tried-and-test private equity playbook of securing a pre-bid stake before lobbing a non-binding offer at A$12.65 per share</li>
<li>TPG has timed its move to take advantage of the post-results price slump. While not a knockout offer, it is a starting point for the Board to secure better terms.</li>
</ul>



AFR reports that TPG Capital, through UBS, is seeking to acquire 14.4m or 10.00% of Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)'s outstanding shares at A$12.65, a 41.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
If the aftermarket raid is successful, TPG will follow the tried-and-test private equity playbook of securing a pre-bid stake before lobbing a non-binding offer at A$12.65 per share
TPG has timed its move to take advantage of the post-results price slump. While not a knockout offer, it is a starting point for the Board to secure better terms.


InvoCare (IVC AU): TPG Capital Makes a Move

<ul>
<li>Almost killed by Covid and debt burden, funeral company Dignity agreed to a 550p offer (15.5x EV/Fwd EBITDA). Shifting demographics, Baby Boomers and capex investments should provide clients and growth.</li>
<li>Unlike other takeout transactions, all shareholders may elect to partly reinvest in the bidding consortium: either unlisted non-voting Valderrama D shares or listed Castelnau (with Dignity making c.50% of NAV).</li>
<li>My base-case DCF fair value estimate is 531p, 3.5% downside vs. offer price, which seems fair. I set my TP at 550p. Spread gross/annualised is 1.1%/3.2%.</li>
</ul>


Almost killed by Covid and debt burden, funeral company Dignity agreed to a 550p offer (15.5x EV/Fwd EBITDA). Shifting demographics, Baby Boomers and capex investments should provide clients and growth.
Unlike other takeout transactions, all shareholders may elect to partly reinvest in the bidding consortium: either unlisted non-voting Valderrama D shares or listed Castelnau (with Dignity making c.50% of NAV).
My base-case DCF fair value estimate is 531p, 3.5% downside vs. offer price, which seems fair. I set my TP at 550p. Spread gross/annualised is 1.1%/3.2%.


United Kingdom

Dignity PLC provides a range of funeral services, including funerals, funeral planning, and cremations.  The Company also manufactures coffins.

Dignity PLC (DTY LN)

New Unconditional Date

On 6 April, Bidco and Dignity confirmed that the FCA Change in Control Condition had been satisfied. The new Unconditional Date is 4 May....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

InvoCare (IVC AU): TPG Capital Makes a Move

TPG is seeking a 10% pre-bid stake and will subsequently lob a non-binding offer at A$12.65. While not a knockout offer, it is a good starting...

Arun George

Dignity's Last Gasps

Almost killed by Covid and debt burden, funeral company Dignity agreed to a 550p cash offer. Shifting demographics, Baby Boomers and capex...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar