Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.</li>
<li>We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.
We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Dingdang Health Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect Dingdang to experience robust revenue growth of +24% YoY in 2022E, despite the negative impacts from COVID on new store openings and sales of “four-type medicines”.</li><li>Going forward, we see Dingdang’s business growth to accelerate to +29%/ +27% YoY in 2023E/ 24E with continuous cost saving from fulfilment and admin expenses, considering the post-pandemic business resumption and the growing penetration rate of online medicine purchasing in China retail pharmacy.</li><li>Accordingly, we forecast Dingdang to book adjusted net losses of RMB192mn/ RMB94mn in 2022E/ 23E and adjusted net profits of RMB29mn in 2024E</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect Dingdang to experience robust revenue growth of +24% YoY in 2022E, despite the negative impacts from COVID on new store openings and sales of “four-type medicines”.Going forward, we see Dingdang’s business growth to accelerate to +29%/ +27% YoY in 2023E/ 24E with continuous cost saving from fulfilment and admin expenses, considering the post-pandemic business resumption and the growing penetration rate of online medicine purchasing in China retail pharmacy.Accordingly, we forecast Dingdang to book adjusted net losses of RMB192mn/ RMB94mn in 2022E/ 23E and adjusted net profits of RMB29mn in 2024EContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dingdang Health (9886 HK) – 2022 preview: Continuing to enhance long-term growth logic

Brilliance China Automotive / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

<ul>
<li>We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.</li>
<li>Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.
Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

<ul><li>Initiate at BUY. Dingdang Health is a pioneer in providing on-demand pharmaceutical retail services in China. </li><li>According to Frost &amp; Sullivan, the Company was the largest product and service provider in China’s on-demand digital pharmacy industry by revenue with a market share of 6.8%, as well as a top-three service provider in digital retail pharmacy by revenue with a market share of 1.0% in 2021.</li><li>Expanding network to enhance on-demand O2O service capabilities.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Initiate at BUY. Dingdang Health is a pioneer in providing on-demand pharmaceutical retail services in China. According to Frost &amp; Sullivan, the Company was the largest product and service provider in China’s on-demand digital pharmacy industry by revenue with a market share of 6.8%, as well as a top-three service provider in digital retail pharmacy by revenue with a market share of 1.0% in 2021.Expanding network to enhance on-demand O2O service capabilities.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dingdang Health (9886 HK) – Pioneer in China’s on-demand retail pharmacy industry

China

Dingdang Health Technology provides digital healthcare services and is engaged in the pharmaceutical and healthcare business. The company offers online medical consultation, chronic disease management, health portfolio management, and directly observed therapy (DOT) medication adherence services, alongside a range of health products through online and offline channels. It was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Dingdang Health Technology (9886 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 35 adds & 28 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 29 adds & 20 deletes for Stock Connect. 19 index constituents could be dropped from...

Brian Freitas

Dingdang Health (9886 HK) – 2022 preview: Continuing to enhance long-term growth logic

We expect Dingdang to experience robust revenue growth of +24% YoY in 2022E, despite the negative impacts from COVID on new store openings and...

CMB International

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We forecast 44 adds/19 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 37 adds/deletes for Southbound Stock Connect. There could be more Connect changes...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

We see 3 inclusions for the index in Dec, and then 26 adds/16 deletions in March. Following the March rebal, we see 22 adds/37 deletions for Stock...

Brian Freitas

Dingdang Health (9886 HK) – Pioneer in China’s on-demand retail pharmacy industry

According to Frost & Sullivan, the Company was the largest product and service provider in China’s on-demand digital pharmacy industry by revenue...

CMB International

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