Chairman, sgtradex

Tan Chin-Hwee

Chairman

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Cameron has to take the fall as he took a huge strategic risk for partisan reasons, misreading the mood. The question is: do you as a business owner hire and invest?Uncertainty is often lumped together as risk but there is a different: risk can be measured but uncertainty cannot. Daniel Ellsberg devised the famous experiment where there are 2 jars. The first jar, you are told, contains 50 red balls and 50 black balls. The 2nd jars contain 100 red and black balls but the number of each is…

Cameron has to take the fall as he took a huge strategic risk for partisan reasons, misreading the mood. The question is: do you as a business owner hire and invest?Uncertainty is often lumped together as risk but there is a different: risk can be measured but uncertainty cannot. Daniel Ellsberg devised the famous experiment where there are 2 jars. The first jar, you are told, contains 50 red balls and 50 black balls. The 2nd jars contain 100 red and black balls but the number of each is…

Markets from Here-Uncertainty Is NOT Risk

Frontier and emerging markets (Vietnam)

Dylan Waller

Nomadic Equity

Transition from the Irish Stock Exchange to the London Stock ExchangeDragon Capital’s fund <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22754" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22754">Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited</a>, which currently trades on the Irish Stock Exchange, may trade on the main market of the London Stock Exchange next month.  The company plans to hold an Extraordinary General Meeting on June the 21st to vote on the approval of this transfer, which is expected to potentially take place next month.  The fund currently manages over $850 million, and is most notable for…

Transition from the Irish Stock Exchange to the London Stock ExchangeDragon Capital’s fund Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited, which currently trades on the Irish Stock Exchange, may trade on the main market of the London Stock Exchange next month.  The company plans to hold an Extraordinary General Meeting on June the 21st to vote on the approval of this transfer, which is expected to potentially take place next month.  The fund currently manages over $850 million, and is most notable for…

Dragon Capital's VEIL Fund: A 3rd London Listing for Vietnam May Emerge Next Month

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul><li>Last year seven banks in China saw deposits contract. The year previous the number was one. </li><li>Deposit flight is one of the first things to look for in a banking crisis.&nbsp;</li><li>Even where deposits are simply being moved out of traditional banks and placed with a government policy bank, it can be a concern.</li><li>As bad loans worsen, banks find it increasingly difficult to pay back depositors, which can mean calling in loans. This only exacerbates financial stress for debtors.</li></ul>Full report below the fold....&nbsp;

Last year seven banks in China saw deposits contract. The year previous the number was one. Deposit flight is one of the first things to look for in a banking crisis.&nbsp;Even where deposits are simply being moved out of traditional banks and placed with a government policy bank, it can be a concern.As bad loans worsen, banks find it increasingly difficult to pay back depositors, which can mean calling in loans. This only exacerbates financial stress for debtors.Full report below the fold....&nbsp;

<ul><li>It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak.</li><li>In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical.</li><li>It is not steady and calm, in the throes of an NPL cycle.</li><li>The peak of credit costs can be well over 5x lows, and unlike typical forecasts.</li><li>With the signals being sent from Beijing, it suggests we are on the precipice of a radical rise in banks&rsquo; bad loans and associated credit costs.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul>

It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak.In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical.It is not steady and calm, in the throes of an NPL cycle.The peak of credit costs can be well over 5x lows, and unlike typical forecasts.With the signals being sent from Beijing, it suggests we are on the precipice of a radical rise in banks&rsquo; bad loans and associated credit costs.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see two M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index prior to the September 2025 review and then at least four more before the end of the year.</li>
<li>Separately, our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one regular change for F250 during the September 2025 rebalance.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
We see two M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index prior to the September 2025 review and then at least four more before the end of the year.
Separately, our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one regular change for F250 during the September 2025 rebalance.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25: High-Impact ADD Due to Rule Change + More Intra-Review Changes

United Kingdom

Direct Line Insurance Group is a British insurance company offering a wide range of general insurance products including motor, home, commercial, travel, pet, and rescue services. The company operates prominent brands such as Direct Line, Churchill Insurance, Privilege, Darwin, and Green Flag. Direct Line Insurance Group was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Bromley, England.

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Direct Line Insurance Group (DLG LN)

Markets from Here-Uncertainty Is NOT Risk

Cameron has to take the fall as he took a huge strategic risk for partisan reasons, misreading the mood. The question is: do you as a business...

Tan Chin-Hwee

Dragon Capital's VEIL Fund: A 3rd London Listing for Vietnam May Emerge Next Month

Transition from the Irish Stock Exchange to the London Stock ExchangeDragon Capital’s fund Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited, which currently...

Nomadic Equity

Deposit Flight at China's Banks

Last year seven banks in China saw deposits contract. The year previous the number was one. Deposit flight is one of the first things to look...

Daniel Tabbush

China's NPL Growth will be Radical

It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak. In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical. It is not...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25: High-Impact ADD Due to Rule Change + More Intra-Review Changes

BioPharma Credit PLC Fund (BPCR LN) has been our top F250 potential ADD after a recent rule change. This could be a high-impact index addition that...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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