Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US large banks are showing sharply expanding loans in recent weeks, in granular HFD</li>
<li>This comes as their higher cost Jumbo Time Deposits are now showing negative growth</li>
<li>There are positive implications for net interest income, NIM and net profit delta of large US banks</li>
</ul>


US large banks are showing sharply expanding loans in recent weeks, in granular HFD
This comes as their higher cost Jumbo Time Deposits are now showing negative growth
There are positive implications for net interest income, NIM and net profit delta of large US banks


US Banks - HFD Shows Sharply Expanding Loans, with Newly Negative Growth in Jumbo Time Deposits

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SYF, DFS, and ALLY are spinoffs from larger companies in consumer finance and create shareholder value through focused strategies and good management culture.</li><li>ALLY is particularly interesting due to rate-cycle dynamics and a shift from investing in competitive strength to harvesting from past investments.</li><li>The onboarding of a new CEO at ALLY suggests potential developments in the company's strategy, with a focus on management culture, competitive strength investment, and the impact of the current rate cycle on earnings power.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

SYF, DFS, and ALLY are spinoffs from larger companies in consumer finance and create shareholder value through focused strategies and good management culture.ALLY is particularly interesting due to rate-cycle dynamics and a shift from investing in competitive strength to harvesting from past investments.The onboarding of a new CEO at ALLY suggests potential developments in the company's strategy, with a focus on management culture, competitive strength investment, and the impact of the current rate cycle on earnings power.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) - Wednesday, Aug 28, 2024

<ul>
<li>Weekly HFD for large US banks are turning positive in several areas, making the mosaic even stronger than if just as single series were improving</li>
<li>Loan growth for the largest US banks is now positive even if low, but moving from a negative rate of growth, the trajectory is a steady improvement</li>
<li>Loan loss reserves growth is lowering, suggesting bettering LGD and PD while large time deposit growth is down substantially, improving liquidity risk (which can impact credit)</li>
</ul>


Weekly HFD for large US banks are turning positive in several areas, making the mosaic even stronger than if just as single series were improving
Loan growth for the largest US banks is now positive even if low, but moving from a negative rate of growth, the trajectory is a steady improvement
Loan loss reserves growth is lowering, suggesting bettering LGD and PD while large time deposit growth is down substantially, improving liquidity risk (which can impact credit)


US Banks - Strong Weekly Balance Sheet Figures for Loans, Loan Loss Reserves and Time Deposits

Discover Financial Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Discover Financial Services is a successful business with strong financial performance and ownership of the Discover Network and Pulse debit card scheme in the US</li><li>DFS focuses on prime customers and has a high-quality deposit base, remaining profitable during challenging economic times</li><li>A merger announcement with Capital One Financial Corp. could reshape the financial services industry, with DFS set to be acquired at a significant premium to its undisturbed price</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Discover Financial Services is a successful business with strong financial performance and ownership of the Discover Network and Pulse debit card scheme in the USDFS focuses on prime customers and has a high-quality deposit base, remaining profitable during challenging economic timesA merger announcement with Capital One Financial Corp. could reshape the financial services industry, with DFS set to be acquired at a significant premium to its undisturbed priceThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Discover Financial Services (DFS) - Monday, Apr 29, 2024

<ul>
<li>HFD on US bankruptcy filings suggest more stresses to come from consumer card loans</li>
<li>US large banks are more exposed to consumer card loans, but small banks have more CRE</li>
<li>Even where many are seeing far higher charge-offs and impairment costs, HFD suggests these will rise more, and historical peaks, are also far higher</li>
</ul>


HFD on US bankruptcy filings suggest more stresses to come from consumer card loans
US large banks are more exposed to consumer card loans, but small banks have more CRE
Even where many are seeing far higher charge-offs and impairment costs, HFD suggests these will rise more, and historical peaks, are also far higher


US Banks - Weekly US Bankruptcies Rising, US Consumer Defaults More Risk to Large Banks

United States

Discover Financial Services is a credit card issuer and electronic payment services company.  The Company issues credit cards and offers student and personal loans, as well as savings products such as certificates of deposit and money market accounts  and operates an automated teller machine(ATM)/debit network, which includes ATMs, as well as POS terminals nationwide.

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Discover Financial Services (DFS US)

US Banks - HFD Shows Sharply Expanding Loans, with Newly Negative Growth in Jumbo Time Deposits

US large banks show loans accelerating (but not riskier CRE loans) and with higher cost Jumbo time deposit growth now turning negative in new...

Daniel Tabbush

Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) - Wednesday, Aug 28, 2024

SYF, DFS, and ALLY are spinoffs from larger companies in consumer finance and create shareholder value through focused strategies and good...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

US Banks - Strong Weekly Balance Sheet Figures for Loans, Loan Loss Reserves and Time Deposits

The largest US banks by assets are showing HFD that is increasingly positive for loan growth, loan loss reserves growth and large time deposits...

Daniel Tabbush

Discover Financial Services (DFS) - Monday, Apr 29, 2024

Discover Financial Services is a successful business with strong financial performance and ownership of the Discover Network and Pulse debit card...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

US Banks - Weekly US Bankruptcies Rising, US Consumer Defaults More Risk to Large Banks

Weekly US bankruptcy filings are rising, these appear to be higher than dire days of FY20 now. High rates, high inflation, buy now pay later, are...

Daniel Tabbush

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