Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Evidence continues of worsening consumer credit metrics in the US. Specialty lender, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11966" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11966:1">Discover Financial Services (DFS US)</a> now reports its gross principal charge-off (NCO) rate on credit card loans at 4.08% in 1Q18.  The figure continues to rise, and is well above any quarter in the past two years.  Data from Santander Consumer USA is also telling, showing a marked rise in industry subprime loan net loss rates and industry subprime loan delinquency rates. With considerable consumer loan growth in…

Evidence continues of worsening consumer credit metrics in the US. Specialty lender, Discover Financial Services (DFS US) now reports its gross principal charge-off (NCO) rate on credit card loans at 4.08% in 1Q18.  The figure continues to rise, and is well above any quarter in the past two years.  Data from Santander Consumer USA is also telling, showing a marked rise in industry subprime loan net loss rates and industry subprime loan delinquency rates. With considerable consumer loan growth in…

US Banks – Discover Financial Services Charge-Offs Now Surpass 4%

Visible signs are increasing of risks in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/credit-costs-us-banks" target="_blank">US credit market</a>, and especially in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/discover-financial-services-even-higher-charge-offs" target="_blank">consumer segment</a>. The latest data points are from Santander Consumer USA and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9121" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9121:1">Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC US)</a>. Defaults on their subprime auto loans are rising, as are their bad loans.  Recall that it was Accredited Home Lenders, H&amp;R Block, Indymac and Household International which were the best lead indicators of the credit demise about to overtake the US market, some 12 years ago. With Santander’s comments…

Visible signs are increasing of risks in the US credit market, and especially in the consumer segment. The latest data points are from Santander Consumer USA and Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC US). Defaults on their subprime auto loans are rising, as are their bad loans.  Recall that it was Accredited Home Lenders, H&amp;R Block, Indymac and Household International which were the best lead indicators of the credit demise about to overtake the US market, some 12 years ago. With Santander’s comments…

The key for US banks in upcoming results will be the effect of lower corporate taxes on the carrying value of deferred tax assets (DTA). While not a major issue for most banks and especially money center banks, impairments will be meaningful for some. HSBC Finance also stands out here – although technically not a bank - where its DTA are exceptionally high compared with its stated net worth and more so than most all banks in the US.Operationally, what most will be looking for are improvements in…

The key for US banks in upcoming results will be the effect of lower corporate taxes on the carrying value of deferred tax assets (DTA). While not a major issue for most banks and especially money center banks, impairments will be meaningful for some. HSBC Finance also stands out here – although technically not a bank - where its DTA are exceptionally high compared with its stated net worth and more so than most all banks in the US.Operationally, what most will be looking for are improvements in…

US Banks – What to Look for in 4Q17 Results

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card Issuers, and Investment Banks/Brokers Groups. This is also confirmed by the XLF’s relative strength inflection higher. In this week’s report we narrow in on actionable ideas in the following Financial Groups:<ul><li>Mortgage Insurance (FN-20). MTG, RDN, ESNT, NMIH... pages 8-10</li><li>Credit Card Issuers (FN-27). AXP, COF, SYF, DFS... pages 11-13</li><li>Banks, Super-Regional (FN-15). BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, BBT, RF, FITB... pages 14-17</li><li>Banks, Western, Large-Cap (FN-16). SIVB, ZION, WAL, UMPQ, CATY... pages 18-20</li></ul>

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card Issuers, and Investment Banks/Brokers Groups. This is also confirmed by the XLF’s relative strength inflection higher. In this week’s report we narrow in on actionable ideas in the following Financial Groups:Mortgage Insurance (FN-20). MTG, RDN, ESNT, NMIH... pages 8-10Credit Card Issuers (FN-27). AXP, COF, SYF, DFS... pages 11-13Banks, Super-Regional (FN-15). BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, BBT, RF, FITB... pages 14-17Banks, Western, Large-Cap (FN-16). SIVB, ZION, WAL, UMPQ, CATY... pages 18-20

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on discretionary spending.</li>
<li>The US yield curve is flattening, overall bank credit growth has been negative for two months and yesterday’s January consumer lending data was about half consensus expectations.</li>
<li>The global mining sector has been selling off as expected with iron ore/copper prices – I remain tactically short the FTSE 350 mining index.</li>
<li>Overall, the US…</li>
</ul>


The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on discretionary spending.
The US yield curve is flattening, overall bank credit growth has been negative for two months and yesterday’s January consumer lending data was about half consensus expectations.
The global mining sector has been selling off as expected with iron ore/copper prices – I remain tactically short the FTSE 350 mining index.
Overall, the US…


US Healthcare Overhaul Stumbling, Singapore Cyclical Rally Looking Premature

United States

Discover Financial Services is a credit card issuer and electronic payment services company.  The Company issues credit cards and offers student and personal loans, as well as savings products such as certificates of deposit and money market accounts  and operates an automated teller machine(ATM)/debit network, which includes ATMs, as well as POS terminals nationwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Discover Financial Services (DFS US)

US Banks – Discover Financial Services Charge-Offs Now Surpass 4%

Evidence continues of worsening consumer credit metrics in the US. Specialty lender, Discover Financial Services (DFS US) now reports its gross...

Daniel Tabbush

US Credit Cycle – Revealing Frailties

Visible signs are increasing of risks in the US credit market, and especially in the consumer segment. The latest data points are from Santander...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks – What to Look for in 4Q17 Results

The key for US banks in upcoming results will be the effect of lower corporate taxes on the carrying value of deferred tax assets (DTA). While not...

Daniel Tabbush

U. S. Equity Strategy Weekly

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card...

Vermilion Research

US Healthcare Overhaul Stumbling, Singapore Cyclical Rally Looking Premature

The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on...

Sean Maher

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)