TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We wrote about Disney at the outset of COVID-19, thinking that its dramatic drawdown was overdone – essentially arguing that consumer behavior ultimately won’t be impacted.</p><p>We admittedly have some egg on our face. Clearly this time is different. We think we are at maximum Disney bearishness - multiple sellside downgrades, consensus hedge fund short? Seems like a good entry point for what will become a crowded long again once some visibility emerges.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We wrote about Disney at the outset of COVID-19, thinking that its dramatic drawdown was overdone – essentially arguing that consumer behavior ultimately won’t be impacted.We admittedly have some egg on our face. Clearly this time is different. We think we are at maximum Disney bearishness - multiple sellside downgrades, consensus hedge fund short? Seems like a good entry point for what will become a crowded long again once some visibility emerges.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Disney Revisited: Still a Long (Time From Now), When People Are (No Longer) Far Far Away.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p>In our weekly notes, we’ve been circling around an insight that is beginning to crystallize. Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

In our weekly notes, we’ve been circling around an insight that is beginning to crystallize. Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator II: US Media/Telco Edition

<p>We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow. ;)</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow. ;)Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Corona Virus Selloff Opportunities: Disney

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We continue to move increasingly toward the bullish camp and we believe equities are poised for higher prices moving forward. In today’s report we outline our bullish case and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials, Services, Technology and Manufacturing: Credit Card Issuers, Education Services, China, Solar Energy, and Industrial Rental Equipment.</p>

We continue to move increasingly toward the bullish camp and we believe equities are poised for higher prices moving forward. In today’s report we outline our bullish case and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials, Services, Technology and Manufacturing: Credit Card Issuers, Education Services, China, Solar Energy, and Industrial Rental Equipment.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Cap-Weighted Communications to Overweight

M&A Reporting, CTFN

Jonathan Spitzer

M&A Reporting

CTFN

Bringing the marketplace leading coverage of mergers, events, and major corporate actions, CTFN has a team of seasoned reporters from Los Angeles to London, publishing news that advances stories that matter to event-driven investors and deal professionals.

Index Rebalance

<p>As share class trades go, Discovery has presented several opportunities over the years to take advantage of index changes, corporate events, and a management that has aggressively repurchased nonvoting DISCK shares versus voting DISCA shares.</p>

As share class trades go, Discovery has presented several opportunities over the years to take advantage of index changes, corporate events, and a management that has aggressively repurchased nonvoting DISCK shares versus voting DISCA shares.

Discovery Management Will Likely Soon Be Helping Narrow the Share Class Spread

United States

Discovery, Inc. provides non-fiction entertainment. The Company operates a wide range of educational television channels as well as offers consumer and educational products and services, and a diversified portfolio of digital media services.

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Discovery, Inc. (DISCK US)

Disney Revisited: Still a Long (Time From Now), When People Are (No Longer) Far Far Away.

We wrote about Disney at the outset of COVID-19, thinking that its dramatic drawdown was overdone – essentially arguing that consumer behavior...

Aaron Gabin

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator II: US Media/Telco Edition

In our weekly notes, we’ve been circling around an insight that is beginning to crystallize. Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Corona Virus Selloff Opportunities: Disney

We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow....

Aaron Gabin

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Cap-Weighted Communications to Overweight

We continue to move increasingly toward the bullish camp and we believe equities are poised for higher prices moving forward. In today’s report we...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Disney Revisited: Still a Long (Time From Now), When People Are (No Longer) Far Far Away.

We wrote about Disney at the outset of COVID-19, thinking that its dramatic drawdown was overdone – essentially arguing that consumer behavior...

Aaron Gabin

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator II: US Media/Telco Edition

In our weekly notes, we’ve been circling around an insight that is beginning to crystallize. Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Corona Virus Selloff Opportunities: Disney

We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow....

Aaron Gabin

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Cap-Weighted Communications to Overweight

We continue to move increasingly toward the bullish camp and we believe equities are poised for higher prices moving forward. In today’s report we...

Vermilion Research

Discovery Management Will Likely Soon Be Helping Narrow the Share Class Spread

As share class trades go, Discovery has presented several opportunities over the years to take advantage of index changes, corporate events, and a...

CTFN