Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Bharat Heavy Electricals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With a substantial part of the review period complete, there could potentially be 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 17.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 47.2bn (US$566m). 8 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that are potential migrations between Mid Cap and Large Cap segments in the AMFI Classification system and there will be flows from active managers.</li>
</ul>


With a substantial part of the review period complete, there could potentially be 7 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 17.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 47.2bn (US$566m). 8 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
There are a bunch of stocks that are potential migrations between Mid Cap and Large Cap segments in the AMFI Classification system and there will be flows from active managers.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Active Meets Passive

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Since my last insight, we have observed a couple of important changes to candidate rankings and that has resulted in some changes to our index change expectations.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.
Since my last insight, we have observed a couple of important changes to candidate rankings and that has resulted in some changes to our index change expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Multiple Changes Possible for NIFTY 50; Some New Trade Ideas

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/concord-biotech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36267:1" rel="noopener">Concord Biotech Ltd (CONCORDB IN)</a> reported 19% revenue growth in FY24. EBITDA and PAT grew at a faster pace of 26% and 28%, YoY, respectively.  </li>
<li>With focus on deeper market penetration, acquiring new customers, and introducing new products in niche categories, Concord is well-positioned for 25% revenue CAGR in 3–5 years.</li>
<li>Despite a huge run-up from the IPO price, Concord shares are trading at forward P/E of 38.9x, which is lower than peers.</li>
</ul>



Concord Biotech Ltd (CONCORDB IN) reported 19% revenue growth in FY24. EBITDA and PAT grew at a faster pace of 26% and 28%, YoY, respectively.  
With focus on deeper market penetration, acquiring new customers, and introducing new products in niche categories, Concord is well-positioned for 25% revenue CAGR in 3–5 years.
Despite a huge run-up from the IPO price, Concord shares are trading at forward P/E of 38.9x, which is lower than peers.


Concord Biotech Ltd (CONCORDB IN): Accelerated Growth Ahead; Recent Pullback Comforted Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/divi-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4871:1" rel="noopener">Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN)</a> reported steady performance in Q4FY24, marked by YoY and sequential growth in revenue and improvement in profitability. Double-digit growth is expected to continue.</li>
<li>Custom Synthesis business grew 47% YoY and 38% QoQ to INR12B in Q4FY24, driven by increasing value realization from existing commercial projects and addition of new projects to the portfolio.</li>
<li>In Custom Synthesis, Divi’s Lab is in the process of entering into a long-term supply agreement with an MNC customer and is planning for capacity addition at its manufacturing facility.</li>
</ul>



Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN) reported steady performance in Q4FY24, marked by YoY and sequential growth in revenue and improvement in profitability. Double-digit growth is expected to continue.
Custom Synthesis business grew 47% YoY and 38% QoQ to INR12B in Q4FY24, driven by increasing value realization from existing commercial projects and addition of new projects to the portfolio.
In Custom Synthesis, Divi’s Lab is in the process of entering into a long-term supply agreement with an MNC customer and is planning for capacity addition at its manufacturing facility.


Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN): Custom Synthesis Business to Drive Future Growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. </li>
<li>As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.</li>
</ul>


Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.
Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. 
As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.


Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

India

Divi's Laboratories Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical products which include generic drugs and their intermediates. The Company also undertakes contract research activities for other pharmaceutical companies.

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Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN)

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Active Meets Passive

There could be 7 changes for the NIFTY NEXT50 in Sep. 2 of those changes are migrations to/from the NIFTY50. There are stocks that will have flows...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Multiple Changes Possible for NIFTY 50; Some New Trade Ideas

There are at least four names eligible for NIFTY 50 addition in September 2024. However, the final count ADDs and DELs will be a discretionary...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Concord Biotech Ltd (CONCORDB IN): Accelerated Growth Ahead; Recent Pullback Comforted Valuation

Concord Biotech aims for 25% revenue CAGR in 3–5 years with focus on market penetration, acquiring new customers, and introducing new products....

Tina Banerjee