Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections. Additionally, 10-year yields in the US and Germany are breaking down below key support. These deteriorating market dynamics raise concerns of a deeper pullback, however other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market. Actionable themes highlighted in today's report include Health Care and Real Estate.</p>

The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections. Additionally, 10-year yields in the US and Germany are breaking down below key support. These deteriorating market dynamics raise concerns of a deeper pullback, however other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market. Actionable themes highlighted in today's report include Health Care and Real Estate.

Global Equity Strategy: Mixed Market Environment Continues As Yields Break Down

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>DIVI delivered in line 4QFY21 earnings. It ended FY21 on a strong note, with 29%/57%/54% YoY growth in sales/EBITDA/PAT. New product development, ongoing capex, and strong prospects in Custom Synthesis (CS) provides...</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

DIVI delivered in line 4QFY21 earnings. It ended FY21 on a strong note, with 29%/57%/54% YoY growth in sales/EBITDA/PAT. New product development, ongoing capex, and strong prospects in Custom Synthesis (CS) provides...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

DIVISLAB: DIVI delivered in line 4QFY21 earnings

<p>Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). </p>

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). 

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/divi-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4871:1" rel="noopener">Divi'S Laboratories (DIVI IN)</a> is a leading API manufacturer with dominant market share (60-70% in most cases) across the globe in molecules like Naproxen, Dextromethorphan, Gabapentin, etc. While Divi's has done well this past year with tailwinds from China supply disruption, we believe the environment is normalizing with supply from China going back to pre-COVID levels. We think the current margin expansion to 40%+ levels has been temporary and is likely to stabilize back to &lt;40% levels. At the same time, valuations have peaked significantly to around 50x P/E, highest ever since the boom pre Global Financial Crisis. Growth profile is also maturing as 50% of current revenues come from old APIs which at best have potential to grow in mid-single-digits range.</p>
<p>Below we elaborate on some of the aforementioned concerns while also balancing our view with some of the positives that could pose upside risk to our thesis. However, overall we remain bearish on the stock. </p>

Divi'S Laboratories (DIVI IN) is a leading API manufacturer with dominant market share (60-70% in most cases) across the globe in molecules like Naproxen, Dextromethorphan, Gabapentin, etc. While Divi's has done well this past year with tailwinds from China supply disruption, we believe the environment is normalizing with supply from China going back to pre-COVID levels. We think the current margin expansion to 40%+ levels has been temporary and is likely to stabilize back to &lt;40% levels. At the same time, valuations have peaked significantly to around 50x P/E, highest ever since the boom pre Global Financial Crisis. Growth profile is also maturing as 50% of current revenues come from old APIs which at best have potential to grow in mid-single-digits range.
Below we elaborate on some of the aforementioned concerns while also balancing our view with some of the positives that could pose upside risk to our thesis. However, overall we remain bearish on the stock. 

Divi's Labs: Peak Margins, Peak Valuation and Maturing Growth Profile - Juice Is No More

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories / Index Rebalance

<div><p>The S&amp;P BSE Sensex is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float market cap weighted index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 18 December.</p></div><div>
<p>The December review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 May to 31 October to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> continues to remain a high probability inclusion, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN)</a> is the corresponding deletion candidate. There is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> being included in the Sensex, in which case <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> would be deleted.</p>
<p>Since we published our first Insight at the beginning of September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> has outperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/divi-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4871:1" rel="noopener">Divi'S Laboratories (DIVI IN)</a> by 20% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/torrent-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15762:1" rel="noopener">Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN)</a> by 24%. We would take off the positions and wait for a reversal before re-entering the trade.</p>
<p>The ratio of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20751:1" rel="noopener">Oil India Ltd (OINL IN)</a> is trading close to its lows providing an entry point into a long ONGC/ short Oil India trade.</p>
<p><em>This Insight is marked as bearish due to Dr Reddy's recent outperformance versus its peers that could revert in the near future.</em></p>
</div>

The S&amp;P BSE Sensex is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float market cap weighted index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 18 December.
The December review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 May to 31 October to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) continues to remain a high probability inclusion, and Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN) is the corresponding deletion candidate. There is a lower probability of Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) being included in the Sensex, in which case Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) would be deleted.
Since we published our first Insight at the beginning of September, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) has outperformed Divi'S Laboratories (DIVI IN) by 20% and Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN) by 24%. We would take off the positions and wait for a reversal before re-entering the trade.
The ratio of Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN) to Oil India Ltd (OINL IN) is trading close to its lows providing an entry point into a long ONGC/ short Oil India trade.
This Insight is marked as bearish due to Dr Reddy's recent outperformance versus its peers that could revert in the near future.


Sensex Index Rebalance Preview: Take Profit on Strong Outperformance

India

Divi's Laboratories Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical products which include generic drugs and their intermediates. The Company also undertakes contract research activities for other pharmaceutical companies.

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Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN)

Global Equity Strategy: Mixed Market Environment Continues As Yields Break Down

The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections and 10-year yields in the US and Germany are...

Vermilion Research

DIVISLAB: DIVI delivered in line 4QFY21 earnings

DIVI delivered in line 4QFY21 earnings. It ended FY21 on a strong note, with 29%/57%/54% YoY growth in sales/EBITDA/PAT. New product development,...

Motilal Oswal

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight, while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples,...

Vermilion Research

Divi's Labs: Peak Margins, Peak Valuation and Maturing Growth Profile - Juice Is No More

Divi's is a dominant global API manufacturer but is priced to perfection. With margins and valuations at peak and growth profile maturing, upside...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Sensex Index Rebalance Preview: Take Profit on Strong Outperformance

With the review period for the Sensex almost complete, we still see DRRD as a high probability inclusion and ONGC as a deletion. With DRRD...

Brian Freitas

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