Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.</li>
<li>We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.</li>
<li>Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.
We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.
Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.


Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Whatever is being launched is being sold, presales momentum remains strong: Real estate developers are reporting record presales in the seasonally weakest quarter Q2, Sobha (INR 17bn, growth of 48/18% YoY/QoQ), Prestige (INR 71bn, growth of 102/82% YoY/QoQ), Macrotech (INR 35bn, growth of 12/5% YoY/QoQ) and PHNX (consumption of INR 26.4bn, growth of 9/0% YoY/QoQ on a like-to-like basis)</li><li>We expect this momentum to continue in 3QFY24 with new launches adding a multiplier effect to the presales</li><li>Within micro-markets, we expect the consolidation story to continue in the top six cities with strong volume-driven growth in Bengaluru, MMR and Pune, while NCR growth will be driven largely by higher price appreciation in the luxury segment</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Whatever is being launched is being sold, presales momentum remains strong: Real estate developers are reporting record presales in the seasonally weakest quarter Q2, Sobha (INR 17bn, growth of 48/18% YoY/QoQ), Prestige (INR 71bn, growth of 102/82% YoY/QoQ), Macrotech (INR 35bn, growth of 12/5% YoY/QoQ) and PHNX (consumption of INR 26.4bn, growth of 9/0% YoY/QoQ on a like-to-like basis)We expect this momentum to continue in 3QFY24 with new launches adding a multiplier effect to the presalesWithin micro-markets, we expect the consolidation story to continue in the top six cities with strong volume-driven growth in Bengaluru, MMR and Pune, while NCR growth will be driven largely by higher price appreciation in the luxury segmentContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Real Estate (Q2FY24 Results Preview): Festive cheer awaited

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

<ul><li>DLF: DLF recorded decent presales of INR 20.4bn (+0/-76% YoY/QoQ), given there were no new launches during the quarter</li><li>It announced its re-entry into the MMR market with a slum rehabilitation project in Andheri</li><li>The total project size is expected to be around 3.5msf with DLF executing the first phase with a saleable area of 0.9msf and GDV of around INR 20bn+</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

DLF: DLF recorded decent presales of INR 20.4bn (+0/-76% YoY/QoQ), given there were no new launches during the quarterIt announced its re-entry into the MMR market with a slum rehabilitation project in AndheriThe total project size is expected to be around 3.5msf with DLF executing the first phase with a saleable area of 0.9msf and GDV of around INR 20bn+Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: DLF, TVS Motor, Ashok Leyland, PNB Housing Finance

India

DLF Limited is an Indian commercial real estate development company that develops residential, commercial, and retail properties, including luxury residential complexes, office spaces, and shopping malls. The company operates across various locations in India, with a significant presence in Gurugram, Delhi, Hyderabad, Noida, and Chennai. DLF Limited was founded by Chaudhary Raghvendra Singh in 1946 and is headquartered in Gurugram, Haryana, India.

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DLF (DLFU IN)

Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

Real Estate (Q2FY24 Results Preview): Festive cheer awaited

Whatever is being launched is being sold, presales momentum remains strong: Real estate developers are reporting record presales in the seasonally...

HDFC Securities

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: DLF, TVS Motor, Ashok Leyland, PNB Housing Finance

The total project size is expected to be around 3.5msf with DLF executing the first phase with a saleable area of 0.9msf and GDV of around INR 20bn+

HDFC Securities

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