Lakshmi Iyer, CFA

Credit

We think media reports regarding the company's talks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> are credible. This marks a fundamental change in promoters’ strategy, in our view.  Till date, they had been focused on buying time. However, this development shows that the promoters have bitten the bullet and realize that a deal  of some kind is preferable to bankruptcy.  As such, we upgrade the company's dollar bonds to Buy at current levels.

We think media reports regarding the company's talks with Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) are credible. This marks a fundamental change in promoters’ strategy, in our view.  Till date, they had been focused on buying time. However, this development shows that the promoters have bitten the bullet and realize that a deal  of some kind is preferable to bankruptcy.  As such, we upgrade the company's dollar bonds to Buy at current levels.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Equity Bottom-Up

In this Insight, we walk one through the JioMart WhatsApp Order Booking Service and present our first impressions of the same. Further, we also provide insights into our interactions with some of the store owners that are accepting orders via JioMart to understand how the current trial is coming along. 
We continue to believe that there is little synergistic value arising from the combination of Reliance Retail and Whatsapp, especially in terms of modernising and digitalizing the Indian Kirana stores. With competition and peers already being a step ahead, we believe that unless there is data sharing (which again is a debatable topic), this partnership may not lead to any groundbreaking revolutions in the Indian food retail industry especially not in lines with the one experienced in the Indian telecom industry due to the advent of Jio.

In this Insight, we walk one through the JioMart WhatsApp Order Booking Service and present our first impressions of the same. Further, we also provide insights into our interactions with some of the store owners that are accepting orders via JioMart to understand how the current trial is coming along. 
We continue to believe that there is little synergistic value arising from the combination of Reliance Retail and Whatsapp, especially in terms of modernising and digitalizing the Indian Kirana stores. With competition and peers already being a step ahead, we believe that unless there is data sharing (which again is a debatable topic), this partnership may not lead to any groundbreaking revolutions in the Indian food retail industry especially not in lines with the one experienced in the Indian telecom industry due to the advent of Jio.

JioMart WhatsApp Order Booking: App Walk Around & First Impressions

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas.

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas. 

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is likely and that the path of least resistance is lower for global equities. Considering the damage done to major indexes around the world, any potential bottom is likely to take months to develop and until we see evidence of this repair process we want to be positioned primarily in Sectors with defensive characteristics. Of course, there will be major countertrend rallies along the way, but for now the trend is lower and we would treat rallies as selling opportunities. We outline important technical levels across all markets and highlight actionable opportunities within EM, and the Services and Staples Sectors.

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is likely and that the path of least resistance is lower for global equities. Considering the damage done to major indexes around the world, any potential bottom is likely to take months to develop and until we see evidence of this repair process we want to be positioned primarily in Sectors with defensive characteristics. Of course, there will be major countertrend rallies along the way, but for now the trend is lower and we would treat rallies as selling opportunities. We outline important technical levels across all markets and highlight actionable opportunities within EM, and the Services and Staples Sectors.

ACWI Below Our Line In The Sand: Further Weakness Expected

India

Avenue Supermarts Ltd. (ASL) owns and operates hypermarkets and supermarkets. The Company offers products such as garments, footwears, toys and games, bed and bath linen, stationery, grocery, household, and electronic products. ASL operates throughout India.

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Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)

Future Retail Limited - Upgrade to Buy

We think media reports regarding the company's talks with Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) are credible. This marks a fundamental change in promoters’...

Lakshmi Iyer, CFA

JioMart WhatsApp Order Booking: App Walk Around & First Impressions

In this Insight, we walk one through the JioMart WhatsApp Order Booking Service and present our first impressions of the same. Further, we also...

Pranav Bhavsar

Major Indexes Testing Resistance

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities,...

Vermilion Research

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the...

Vermilion Research

ACWI Below Our Line In The Sand: Further Weakness Expected

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is...

Vermilion Research

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