Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>MBK has made a legally binding bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>. Stay long if you still hold or buy the dip. Buy at under ¥11,200.</li>
<li>Given the share price decline, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nufarm-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1128:1" rel="noopener">Nufarm (NUF AU)</a>'s board is under pressure to do "something". Nufarm would be better off selling its entire operations, as opposed to offloading divisions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> is (also) under pressure from activist Oasis Management. Buy large dips rather than chase another day of a big gain.</li>
</ul>


MBK has made a legally binding bid for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP). Stay long if you still hold or buy the dip. Buy at under ¥11,200.
Given the share price decline, Nufarm (NUF AU)'s board is under pressure to do "something". Nufarm would be better off selling its entire operations, as opposed to offloading divisions.

Dic Corp (4631 JP) is (also) under pressure from activist Oasis Management. Buy large dips rather than chase another day of a big gain.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino Milling Machine, Nufarm, Dic Corp, HKBN

<ul>
<li>Via 49.9%-held MPIC, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> is spinning off Maynilad, a provider of water and wastewater services in the Greater Manila Area, on the Philippine Stock Exchange</li>
<li>Maynilad will tentatively have a market cap of US$2.7bn. Other key investors include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmci-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8026:1" rel="noopener">DMCI Holdings (DMC PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marubeni-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7463:1" rel="noopener">Marubeni Corp (8002 JP)</a>. Listing is expected in July.</li>
<li>I see First Pac's discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade. </li>
</ul>


Via 49.9%-held MPIC, First Pacific Co (142 HK) is spinning off Maynilad, a provider of water and wastewater services in the Greater Manila Area, on the Philippine Stock Exchange
Maynilad will tentatively have a market cap of US$2.7bn. Other key investors include DMCI Holdings (DMC PM) and Marubeni Corp (8002 JP). Listing is expected in July.
I see First Pac's discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade. 


StubWorld: First Pacific (142 HK) Looking Stretched

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Maynilad Water Services / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maynilad-water-services-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44852:1" rel="noopener">Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH)</a> (MWS) is looking to raise at least US$633m in its upcoming Philippines IPO.</li>
<li>MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) (MWS) is looking to raise at least US$633m in its upcoming Philippines IPO.
MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Maynilad Water Services Pre-IPO - The Positives - Key Infrastructure Provider

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maynilad-water-services-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44852:1" rel="noopener">Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH)</a> is looking to raise up to US$860m by selling shares at ₱20/share, valuing the company at US$2.82bn.</li>
<li>The market cap and free float will depend on the number of shares sold in the IPO and whether the shares in the upsize option are primary or secondary shares.</li>
<li>Global index inclusions should take place in November and December, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> inclusion could take place in August 2026.</li>
</ul>



Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) is looking to raise up to US$860m by selling shares at ₱20/share, valuing the company at US$2.82bn.
The market cap and free float will depend on the number of shares sold in the IPO and whether the shares in the upsize option are primary or secondary shares.
Global index inclusions should take place in November and December, while Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) inclusion could take place in August 2026.


Maynilad Water (MYNLD PM): Index Inclusion Timing for a Large Philippines IPO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>'s roadmap is a solid response to where retailing is headed, both in Japan and elsewhere; while ACT's bid is just about carrying on as now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR (1821 HK)</a> is a non-binding proposal, no official terms, with a fragmented shareholder register. And this is before any opaque PRC regulatory conditions tacked on in a firm Offer.</li>
<li>Murakami-San is up to 23.5% of voting rights in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>. He would probably need 30% to be able to threaten a board spill.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)'s roadmap is a solid response to where retailing is headed, both in Japan and elsewhere; while ACT's bid is just about carrying on as now.

ESR (1821 HK) is a non-binding proposal, no official terms, with a fragmented shareholder register. And this is before any opaque PRC regulatory conditions tacked on in a firm Offer.
Murakami-San is up to 23.5% of voting rights in Exedy Corp (7278 JP). He would probably need 30% to be able to threaten a board spill.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ESR, Exedy, CMCDI, Shin Kong

Philippines

DMCI Holdings is a Philippine engineering conglomerate and diversified holding company. It has core investments in construction, real estate development, coal and nickel mining, power generation, and water utilities. The company's activities include general construction services, production of concrete products, exploration and mining of coal and nickel, power generation through coal-fired and satellite plants, and provision of water and sewerage services. DMCI Holdings is headquartered in Makati, Philippines, and was founded in 1954.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

DMCI Holdings (DMC PM)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino Milling Machine, Nufarm, Dic Corp, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: First Pacific (142 HK) Looking Stretched

MPIC's deep value is being extrapolated. However, this development adds yet another listed company. First Pac''s valuations appear full. The...

David Blennerhassett

Maynilad Water Services Pre-IPO - The Positives - Key Infrastructure Provider

Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) (MWS) is looking to raise at least US$633m in its upcoming Philippines IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Maynilad Water (MYNLD PM): Index Inclusion Timing for a Large Philippines IPO

Maynilad Water could raise upto US$860m by selling shares at ₱20/shr, valuing the company at US$2.82bn. Global index inclusions could take place in...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ESR, Exedy, CMCDI, Shin Kong

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)