Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dalton Investments, Senko’s largest shareholder at ~10.8%, plans to submit AGM proposals to address value dilution from poor non-core diversification, weak capital allocation, and governance issues.</li>
<li>Dalton and NAVF, holding ~11% of Ezaki Glico, saw their AGM proposals for better capital efficiency defeated despite ~30% support for director elections and rising shareholder backing.</li>
<li>Rheos Capital disclosed a 5.2% stake in DMG Mori without signalling activist intentions, suggesting a passive investment rather than an engagement campaign.</li>
</ul>


Dalton Investments, Senko’s largest shareholder at ~10.8%, plans to submit AGM proposals to address value dilution from poor non-core diversification, weak capital allocation, and governance issues.
Dalton and NAVF, holding ~11% of Ezaki Glico, saw their AGM proposals for better capital efficiency defeated despite ~30% support for director elections and rising shareholder backing.
Rheos Capital disclosed a 5.2% stake in DMG Mori without signalling activist intentions, suggesting a passive investment rather than an engagement campaign.


Japan Activism Briefs | Senko, Ezaki Glico, DMG Mori

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Due to the delay in securing FEFTA approval, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> has announced that the start of the MBK tender offer has been delayed to late June. </li>
<li>Makino is classified as a Type 3 company (core business), suggesting that MBK is negotiating undertakings to secure FEFTA approval.</li>
<li>Despite mitigating factors, the case for a bump is increasingly persuasive given peers' material reratings, Makino’s solid financial performance and lack of irrevocables.  </li>
</ul>


Due to the delay in securing FEFTA approval, Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) has announced that the start of the MBK tender offer has been delayed to late June. 
Makino is classified as a Type 3 company (core business), suggesting that MBK is negotiating undertakings to secure FEFTA approval.
Despite mitigating factors, the case for a bump is increasingly persuasive given peers' material reratings, Makino’s solid financial performance and lack of irrevocables.  


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Delayed as the Case for a Bump Is Becoming Persuasive

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> has announced that MBK has secured the two highest risk approvals (US CFIUS and China SAMR). </li>
<li>The remaining approval (Japan) should be obtained by mid-February. However, the offer must now contend with twin headwinds of a bull market and upgraded guidance. </li>
<li>While MBK’s improving deal economics support a bump, several mitigating factors (such as deal fatigue and no competing bid) suggest a low probability of a bump.   </li>
</ul>



Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) has announced that MBK has secured the two highest risk approvals (US CFIUS and China SAMR). 
The remaining approval (Japan) should be obtained by mid-February. However, the offer must now contend with twin headwinds of a bull market and upgraded guidance. 
While MBK’s improving deal economics support a bump, several mitigating factors (such as deal fatigue and no competing bid) suggest a low probability of a bump.   


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Twin Headwinds as Chinese and US Approvals Secured

<ul>
<li>On Friday, after market close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> finally issued a progress update on the MBK preconditional tender offer. The update, while mixed, should calm nerves. </li>
<li>The positive read-across is a pathway to regulatory approvals, the Homeplus saga has not derailed the offer, and the likely breach of the long-stop date is not a termination event.</li>
<li>The negative read-across is the lack of a revised tender start timeline, an unexplained delay in securing most regulatory approvals and ongoing uncertainty on the long-stop date.</li>
</ul>


On Friday, after market close, Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) finally issued a progress update on the MBK preconditional tender offer. The update, while mixed, should calm nerves. 
The positive read-across is a pathway to regulatory approvals, the Homeplus saga has not derailed the offer, and the likely breach of the long-stop date is not a termination event.
The negative read-across is the lack of a revised tender start timeline, an unexplained delay in securing most regulatory approvals and ongoing uncertainty on the long-stop date.


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Progress Update While Mixed, Should Calm Nerves

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>’s pre-conditional tender offer from MBK Partners is at JPY11,751 per share. The gross spread has increased to 9.9% due to several concerns.</li>
<li>The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the precondition, the fallout from the Homeplus saga and breaching the long stop date (16 January 2026).</li>
<li>While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable as the upside (9.9% spread) exceeds the downside (6.3% to my estimated deal break price). </li>
</ul>



Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)’s pre-conditional tender offer from MBK Partners is at JPY11,751 per share. The gross spread has increased to 9.9% due to several concerns.
The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the precondition, the fallout from the Homeplus saga and breaching the long stop date (16 January 2026).
While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable as the upside (9.9% spread) exceeds the downside (6.3% to my estimated deal break price). 


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Japan

DMG MORI CO., LTD. manufactures and markets machine tools and related products. The Company's product line includes numerical control (NC) and high-speed precision lathes, horizontal and vertical machining centers (MCs), and other stationary machine tools capable of performing various tasks.

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Dmg Mori Co Ltd (6141 JP)

Japan Activism Briefs | Senko, Ezaki Glico, DMG Mori

Dalton Investments seeks to address value dilution and governance issues at Senko, while Rheos Capital takes a passive approach with a stake in...

Mark Chadwick

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Delayed as the Case for a Bump Is Becoming Persuasive

FEFTA approval should be forthcoming. Despite mitigating factors, the case for a bump is increasingly persuasive given peers' material reratings,...

Arun George

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Twin Headwinds as Chinese and US Approvals Secured

The precondition should be satisfied soon. While the re-rating of peers and upgraded guidance have improved MBK’s deal economics, several...

Arun George

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Progress Update While Mixed, Should Calm Nerves

While the update is arguably mixed as it lends support to both the bulls and bears, it is positively skewed, which should calm nerves and narrow...

Arun George

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

The wide gross spread reflects three concerns. While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable.

Arun George

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52-week Range

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Japan Activism Briefs | Senko, Ezaki Glico, DMG Mori

​Dalton Investments seeks to address value dilution and governance issues at Senko, while Rheos Capital takes a passive approach with a stake in...

Mark Chadwick

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Delayed as the Case for a Bump Is Becoming Persuasive

FEFTA approval should be forthcoming. Despite mitigating factors, the case for a bump is increasingly persuasive given peers' material reratings,...

Arun George

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Twin Headwinds as Chinese and US Approvals Secured

The precondition should be satisfied soon. While the re-rating of peers and upgraded guidance have improved MBK’s deal economics, several...

Arun George

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Progress Update While Mixed, Should Calm Nerves

While the update is arguably mixed as it lends support to both the bulls and bears, it is positively skewed, which should calm nerves and narrow...

Arun George

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

The wide gross spread reflects three concerns. While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable.

Arun George

Dalton Investments seeks to address value dilution and governance issues at Senko, while Rheos Capital takes a passive approach with a stake in...