New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We upgrade Stride Property (SPG) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM.</li><li>SPG is trading on a -26% discount to its NTA backing of NZ$1.72 per share, and at a -8% discount to our NAV, which conservatively assumes a further -15% decrease in the value of office and retail properties.</li><li>SPG has debt-reduction options including: (1) divesting part of its town-centre portfolio (we see this as likely); and (2) the spin-off of its office fund, Fabric.</li></ul>

We upgrade Stride Property (SPG) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM.SPG is trading on a -26% discount to its NTA backing of NZ$1.72 per share, and at a -8% discount to our NAV, which conservatively assumes a further -15% decrease in the value of office and retail properties.SPG has debt-reduction options including: (1) divesting part of its town-centre portfolio (we see this as likely); and (2) the spin-off of its office fund, Fabric.

Stride Property Stepping Up To OUTPERFORM

<ul><li>Stride (SPG) reported an expected -20% decline in adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) to NZ$42.1m, but is broadly flat excluding one-offs.</li><li>While SPG offers an attractive yield and trades at a wide discount to net assets, vacancy will take time and capital to fill, and the potential end of the Diversified management contract could be a 5%–6% headwind to earnings.</li><li>Management-fee income rose +17% half-on-half in 2H25 to NZ$11m, taking FY25 to NZ$20.4m (+3% vs FY24) with a step up in base fees following the Industre restructure and developments lifting activity fees.</li></ul>

Stride (SPG) reported an expected -20% decline in adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) to NZ$42.1m, but is broadly flat excluding one-offs.While SPG offers an attractive yield and trades at a wide discount to net assets, vacancy will take time and capital to fill, and the potential end of the Diversified management contract could be a 5%–6% headwind to earnings.Management-fee income rose +17% half-on-half in 2H25 to NZ$11m, taking FY25 to NZ$20.4m (+3% vs FY24) with a step up in base fees following the Industre restructure and developments lifting activity fees.

Stride Property FY25 Result—Stepping Down

Equity Capital Markets

Precinct Properties New Zealand / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>The listed property sector was broadly flat in October after delivering a +18% total return year-to-date.</li><li>Precinct (PCT) raised NZ$325m of additional equity in the month, which weighed on sector performance as investors looked for funders, and the risk of further capital raisings weighed on sentiment.</li><li>Our analysis of the sector’s long-term development pipelines and potential funding options highlights a divide between those with access to capital (PCT, Goodman (GMT)) and those without, who may need to recycle non-core assets or tap into additional sources of capital to fund growth aspirations.</li></ul>

The listed property sector was broadly flat in October after delivering a +18% total return year-to-date.Precinct (PCT) raised NZ$325m of additional equity in the month, which weighed on sector performance as investors looked for funders, and the risk of further capital raisings weighed on sentiment.Our analysis of the sector’s long-term development pipelines and potential funding options highlights a divide between those with access to capital (PCT, Goodman (GMT)) and those without, who may need to recycle non-core assets or tap into additional sources of capital to fund growth aspirations.

Real Estate Reflections Taking a Breather

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Falling short-term interest rates have swung sentiment in the listed property sector’s favour.</li><li>We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in sector target prices.</li><li>The NZ property sector rose +5.8% in September, outperforming the broader market, which was up +2.8%.</li></ul>

Falling short-term interest rates have swung sentiment in the listed property sector’s favour.We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in sector target prices.The NZ property sector rose +5.8% in September, outperforming the broader market, which was up +2.8%.

Precinct Properties New Zealand / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.</li><li>Over the month, we downgraded Precinct and Winton from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, with the former trading on a full but fair +8% premium to NTA, and the latter due to the residential downcycle.</li><li>We also upgraded SPG from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM on valuation grounds, given its discount to NTA, our conservative NAV, and its solid 9.3% gross yield.</li></ul>

The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.Over the month, we downgraded Precinct and Winton from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, with the former trading on a full but fair +8% premium to NTA, and the latter due to the residential downcycle.We also upgraded SPG from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM on valuation grounds, given its discount to NTA, our conservative NAV, and its solid 9.3% gross yield.

Real Estate Reflections Closing The Discount

New Zealand

Stride Stapled Limited operates as a real estate investment management company. The Company invests in office, retail, and industrial properties, which are located in the urban areas across New Zealand.

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Stride Property (STR NZ)

Stride Property Stepping Up To OUTPERFORM

SPG has debt-reduction options including: (1) divesting part of its town-centre portfolio (we see this as likely); and (2) the spin-off of its...

Forsyth Barr

Stride Property FY25 Result—Stepping Down

Stride (SPG) reported an expected -20% decline in adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) to NZ$42.1m, but is broadly flat excluding one-offs.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Taking a Breather

Precinct (PCT) raised NZ$325m of additional equity in the month, which weighed on sector performance as investors looked for funders, and the risk...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Hot Property

We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Closing The Discount

The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.

Forsyth Barr

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