Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

Asset World Corporation / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Asset World, Banpu Public and Ngern Tid Lor are being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> while Berli Jucker, Delta Electronics and Sri Trang Agro will be deleted.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% and results in a one-way trade of THB 4,957m. The deletions of BJC/ DELTA will result in a funding inflow to the other index constituents.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a> is a surprise to an extent with the name not appearing on most lists on the street. We had it as a low probability inclusion.</li>
</ul>


Asset World, Banpu Public and Ngern Tid Lor are being added to the SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) while Berli Jucker, Delta Electronics and Sri Trang Agro will be deleted.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% and results in a one-way trade of THB 4,957m. The deletions of BJC/ DELTA will result in a funding inflow to the other index constituents.

Asset World Corporation (AWC TB) is a surprise to an extent with the name not appearing on most lists on the street. We had it as a low probability inclusion.


SET50 December Index Rebalance: AWC, BANPU, TIDLOR Added; BJC, DELTA, STA Out

Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up, Wickhams Hill

Lloyd Moffatt

Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Singapore listed MM2 Asia Ltd (MM2 SP) looks to be the most immediately actionable of the 7 stocks added to our list of fallen angels.</li>
<li>Keeping in Singapore, luxury watch retailer Hour Glass (HG SP) has recently commenced repurchases under a 10% buyback mandate.</li>
<li>Across to Indonesia, Bundamedik (BMHS IJ) is the latest hospital to list on the IDX. They’re a premium women and children's hospital with leading IVF clinics.</li>
</ul>


Singapore listed MM2 Asia Ltd (MM2 SP) looks to be the most immediately actionable of the 7 stocks added to our list of fallen angels.
Keeping in Singapore, luxury watch retailer Hour Glass (HG SP) has recently commenced repurchases under a 10% buyback mandate.
Across to Indonesia, Bundamedik (BMHS IJ) is the latest hospital to list on the IDX. They’re a premium women and children's hospital with leading IVF clinics.


Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 1

Last evening post market close, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) announced the results of the semi-annual review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> with the changes taking effect after the close of trading on 30 June.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-agro-industry-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2759:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB)</a> have been added to the index, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-commercial-asset-management-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28442:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-paint-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24235:1" rel="noopener">TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-paint-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24235:1" rel="noopener">TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB)</a> are deletes on liquidity. We had <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a> just about passing the liquidity test, while the SET sees it as failing the test.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)</a> was deleted from the index at the December 2020 rebalance and has gained 8.6% since then, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-commercial-asset-management-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28442:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB)</a> was included in the index at the same review and has lost 11.4% since then.One-way turnover for the rebalance is 2.86%. The impact of passive fund trading on the deletions is expected to be a lot higher than that on the inclusions.With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> shareholders meeting for their EGM on 25 June, the tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> should be approved. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banpu-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15363:1" rel="noopener">Banpu Public (BANPU TB)</a> is the frontrunner to join the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> once the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> tender offer is complete and the free float drops below 20%.

Last evening post market close, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) announced the results of the semi-annual review of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) with the changes taking effect after the close of trading on 30 June.IRPC PCL (IRPC TB), KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB), Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB) and Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB) have been added to the index, replacing Asset World Corporation (AWC TB), Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB), TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB) and VGI PCL (VGI TB).Asset World Corporation (AWC TB) and TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB) are deletes on liquidity. We had Asset World Corporation (AWC TB) just about passing the liquidity test, while the SET sees it as failing the test.IRPC PCL (IRPC TB) was deleted from the index at the December 2020 rebalance and has gained 8.6% since then, while Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB) was included in the index at the same review and has lost 11.4% since then.One-way turnover for the rebalance is 2.86%. The impact of passive fund trading on the deletions is expected to be a lot higher than that on the inclusions.With Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) shareholders meeting for their EGM on 25 June, the tender offer for Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) should be approved. Banpu Public (BANPU TB) is the frontrunner to join the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) once the Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) tender offer is complete and the free float drops below 20%.

SET50 June Index Rebalance: Four Changes Announced; One More Coming Up Soon

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Central Retail Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-retail-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28240:1" rel="noopener">Central Retail (CRC TB)</a>is one of the largest retailers in Thailand. Its imminent IPO was "known" back in July last year when Central Retail announced a Delisting Offer for its subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinson-pcl-9d45b70c-fe89-4e3f-8b2e-e9c50c86f862" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14108:1" rel="noopener">Robinson Public Company (ROBINS TB)</a> which was struck at a certain price vis-a-vis Robinson, which would then turn into that nominal amount in shares in the CRC IPO to come after the end of 2019. The final approvals for delisting Robinson came at the end of December, at which point the preliminary Central RetailPricing Range of THB 40.0-48.0 was announced. In mid-January, the CRC IPO itself was officially launched, then a couple of business days later the New Official Pricing Range of THB 40.0-43.0 was set. After that point, the real news of the novel coronavirus 2019 from China came out, and travel started getting suspended, with initial quarantines starting in Wuhan. The news got progressively worse over the next few days, and this is significant for Thailand because Chinese tourists are a big part of the tourism economy which drives a non-negligible part of Thai GDP. The Central Retail IPO process continued - undeterred - and Pricing was set on 6 February at THB 42.0/share. Some call this "in the middle of the range" but I will call it in the middle of the lower range set after the top half of the initial target range was rejected.Where Central Retaildeserves to trade tomorrow when it opens is a question. Discussed below.

Central Retail (CRC TB)is one of the largest retailers in Thailand. Its imminent IPO was "known" back in July last year when Central Retail announced a Delisting Offer for its subsidiary Robinson Public Company (ROBINS TB) which was struck at a certain price vis-a-vis Robinson, which would then turn into that nominal amount in shares in the CRC IPO to come after the end of 2019. The final approvals for delisting Robinson came at the end of December, at which point the preliminary Central RetailPricing Range of THB 40.0-48.0 was announced. In mid-January, the CRC IPO itself was officially launched, then a couple of business days later the New Official Pricing Range of THB 40.0-43.0 was set. After that point, the real news of the novel coronavirus 2019 from China came out, and travel started getting suspended, with initial quarantines starting in Wuhan. The news got progressively worse over the next few days, and this is significant for Thailand because Chinese tourists are a big part of the tourism economy which drives a non-negligible part of Thai GDP. The Central Retail IPO process continued - undeterred - and Pricing was set on 6 February at THB 42.0/share. Some call this "in the middle of the range" but I will call it in the middle of the lower range set after the top half of the initial target range was rejected.Where Central Retaildeserves to trade tomorrow when it opens is a question. Discussed below.

Central Retail IPO Day 20 Feb - Basis Risk, Flow, and Index Dynamics

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

We met up with Tipco Asphalt and Homepro, the country's largest home furnishing store chain. This is the quick run-down:<ul>
<li>
TASCO reported huge profits of Bt712m in Q3'19 vs just Bt6m in Q3'19, largely due to a Bt450m insurance payment it received in the quarter for the fire that broke out in its Malaysian refinery.</li>
<li>
EBITDA also surged 75% during the period due to an abnormally strong demand in China, its biggest market. However, 2020 sales volumes are expected to decline slightly.</li>
<li>
Homepro's profits grew only 12.8% on the back of slow 3% revenue growth. Management blamed the weak economy and heavy rains.</li>
<li>It is difficult for Homepro to outperform DoHome, which we prefer, given their already large network and higher proportion of private labels. In addition, the larger stores take longer to break even.</li>
</ul>

We met up with Tipco Asphalt and Homepro, the country's largest home furnishing store chain. This is the quick run-down:

TASCO reported huge profits of Bt712m in Q3'19 vs just Bt6m in Q3'19, largely due to a Bt450m insurance payment it received in the quarter for the fire that broke out in its Malaysian refinery.

EBITDA also surged 75% during the period due to an abnormally strong demand in China, its biggest market. However, 2020 sales volumes are expected to decline slightly.

Homepro's profits grew only 12.8% on the back of slow 3% revenue growth. Management blamed the weak economy and heavy rains.
It is difficult for Homepro to outperform DoHome, which we prefer, given their already large network and higher proportion of private labels. In addition, the larger stores take longer to break even.


Thailand

Dohome Public Company Limited is a Thai retailer and wholesaler of construction materials, office equipment, and household products. The company offers a wide range of items, including steel sections, cement, tools, electrical appliances, and home decorations. Dohome was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Pathum Thani, Thailand.

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Dohome (DOHOME TB)

SET50 December Index Rebalance: AWC, BANPU, TIDLOR Added; BJC, DELTA, STA Out

There are 3 changes to the SET50 index at the December rebalance. AWC, BANPU and TIDLOR will replace BJC, DELTA and STA. AWC is a 'surprise' and...

Brian Freitas

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 1

Singapore listed MM2 Asia Ltd (MM2 SP) looks to be the most immediately actionableof the 7 stocks added to our list of fallen angels.

Lloyd Moffatt

SET50 June Index Rebalance: Four Changes Announced; One More Coming Up Soon

There are 4 changes to the SET50 index with IRPC, KCE, STA & STGT replacing AWC, BAM, TOA & VGI. BANPU could be included in the next couple of...

Brian Freitas

Central Retail IPO Day 20 Feb - Basis Risk, Flow, and Index Dynamics

Central Retail (CRC TB)is one of the largest retailers in Thailand. Its imminent IPO was "known" back in July last year when Central Retail...

Travis Lundy

Tipco Asphalt’s Best Quarter

We met up with Tipco Asphalt and Homepro, the country's largest home furnishing store chain. This is the quick run-down: TASCO reported huge...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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