HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>From 2020 to 2022, Yan Palace has spent RMB831 million on advertising and promotion, while total net profit of the Company during the same period was only about RMB500 million.</li>
<li>OneNest is the main product with the highest gross margin, which is driven by price increase strategy.However, raising price may not work. Revenue growth in 2023H2/2024 could further slow down.</li>
<li>The question is are investors really satisfied with such low-margin business for a company with strong consumption attributes? Valuation of Yan Palace should be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dong-e-e-jiaoco-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8470:1" rel="noopener">Dong E E Jiao</a>.</li>
</ul>


From 2020 to 2022, Yan Palace has spent RMB831 million on advertising and promotion, while total net profit of the Company during the same period was only about RMB500 million.
OneNest is the main product with the highest gross margin, which is driven by price increase strategy.However, raising price may not work. Revenue growth in 2023H2/2024 could further slow down.
The question is are investors really satisfied with such low-margin business for a company with strong consumption attributes? Valuation of Yan Palace should be lower than Dong E E Jiao.


Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>Although Yan Palace prioritizes R&amp;D capabilities in prospectus, its revenue growth and business model are mainly relied on large investment in marketing/promotion.The root cause is the efficacy problem of EBN.</li>
<li>Whether Yan Palace's future performance growth can be sustained is a question mark if marketing/promotion cannot drive growth anymore. Net profit margin is low. EBN is not a profitable business.</li>
<li>Yan Palace's products do not have core competitiveness or high moat. Compliance risks are also worth being vigilant about. The valuation of Yan Palace should be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene</a>.</li>
</ul>


Although Yan Palace prioritizes R&amp;D capabilities in prospectus, its revenue growth and business model are mainly relied on large investment in marketing/promotion.The root cause is the efficacy problem of EBN.
Whether Yan Palace's future performance growth can be sustained is a question mark if marketing/promotion cannot drive growth anymore. Net profit margin is low. EBN is not a profitable business.
Yan Palace's products do not have core competitiveness or high moat. Compliance risks are also worth being vigilant about. The valuation of Yan Palace should be lower than Giant Biogene.


Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering - Concerns About Profitability and Growth Sustainability

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>By comparing medical insurance expenditure and income, as well as the pharmaceutical manufacturing revenues and profits for the same period, we find something interesting. </li>
<li>Due to COVID-19, the sales of TCM in 22Q4 and 23Q1 surged. But in 23Q2-Q4, people's demand could change. Therefore, the performance of related TCM company would also switch. </li>
<li>New generation weight loss drugs represented by Semaglutide would change the logic and supply-demand relationship of the entire market. This is a situation that investors need to be aware of.</li>
</ul>


By comparing medical insurance expenditure and income, as well as the pharmaceutical manufacturing revenues and profits for the same period, we find something interesting. 
Due to COVID-19, the sales of TCM in 22Q4 and 23Q1 surged. But in 23Q2-Q4, people's demand could change. Therefore, the performance of related TCM company would also switch. 
New generation weight loss drugs represented by Semaglutide would change the logic and supply-demand relationship of the entire market. This is a situation that investors need to be aware of.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.14)-TCM Demand Switch, 8% Benchmark Growth Rate, GLP-1 Change Game Rule

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

Equity Bottom-Up

China Resources Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2022 was a turning point for China Resources Pharmaceutical (CRP), because performance of core subsidiaries saw a historic improvement.After China reopens, CRP is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2023.</li>
<li>CRP’s development history indicates that its current scale/industry position are mainly due to continuous M&amp;A based on SOE resource advantages/background, but holding platform companies have valuation discounts in secondary market.</li>
<li>Different business models lead to different valuation logic. But Sinopharm/SH Pharma/CRP all enjoy SOE background dividends+valuation system with Chinese characteristics. If investors mainly focus on industry trend, they can all be invested.  </li>
</ul>


2022 was a turning point for China Resources Pharmaceutical (CRP), because performance of core subsidiaries saw a historic improvement.After China reopens, CRP is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2023.
CRP’s development history indicates that its current scale/industry position are mainly due to continuous M&amp;A based on SOE resource advantages/background, but holding platform companies have valuation discounts in secondary market.
Different business models lead to different valuation logic. But Sinopharm/SH Pharma/CRP all enjoy SOE background dividends+valuation system with Chinese characteristics. If investors mainly focus on industry trend, they can all be invested.  


China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) - Growth Recovery and SOE Advantages Improve the Outlook

China

Dong-E-E-Jiao Co., Ltd. primarily manufactures and sells traditional Chinese medicine, health care products, health foods, and bio-medicine. The company also engages in gelatin products manufacturing.

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Dong E E Jiaoco Ltd A (000423 CH)

Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

As Yan palace's revenue growth further declines, effectiveness of marketing activities has already decrease. Huge selling expenses erode profit...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering - Concerns About Profitability and Growth Sustainability

Since the efficacy/actual value of EBN is questionable, marketing/promotion alone cannot drive future performance growth.Yan Palace's profit model...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.14)-TCM Demand Switch, 8% Benchmark Growth Rate, GLP-1 Change Game Rule

8% could be a benchmark growth rate for future healthcare industry. People's TCM demand switch will lead to changes in TCM company's performance....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

We see 50 changes a side for the CSI500 in Dec. The Industrials sector could take a lot of index spots from Materials as one-way turnover exceeds...

Brian Freitas

China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) - Growth Recovery and SOE Advantages Improve the Outlook

China Resources Pharmaceutical is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2023. Its SOE resource advantage/background are in line with China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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