Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 2,000+ insights published on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we examine the windfall for brokers amid market volatility and other tailwinds, index rule changes to accommodate megacap IPOs, and the prospects in markets for physical AI.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 2,000+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we examine the windfall for brokers amid market volatility and other tailwinds, index rule changes to accommodate megacap IPOs, and the prospects in markets for physical AI.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Brokering Records, Race to SpaceX & The Rise of Physical AI

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

<ul>
<li>While still progressing, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a>'s merger will boost earnings. For 1Q26, the combined group will have seen a 66.9% earnings growth. </li>
<li>The IPO market boom is beneficial to CICC. YTD, it has a 36.9% share of the number of deals and 39.4% share in funds raised in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Assuming completion by end-Sep, CICC will trade at 8.8x PER for FY27, a 26% premium to the sector average. However, its leadership position and the potential synergy support this.</li>
</ul>


While still progressing, China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)'s merger will boost earnings. For 1Q26, the combined group will have seen a 66.9% earnings growth. 
The IPO market boom is beneficial to CICC. YTD, it has a 36.9% share of the number of deals and 39.4% share in funds raised in Hong Kong.
Assuming completion by end-Sep, CICC will trade at 8.8x PER for FY27, a 26% premium to the sector average. However, its leadership position and the potential synergy support this.


CICC (3908 HK): It's Getting More Interesting

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the 3Q2026 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.</li>
<li>We estimate that the outflows in 3Q2026 were US$12,576 million and holdings were US$386 billion.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, CMB, WUXI APPTEC, PING AN INSURANCE, MIDEA.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the 3Q2026 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
We estimate that the outflows in 3Q2026 were US$12,576 million and holdings were US$386 billion.
We highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, CMB, WUXI APPTEC, PING AN INSURANCE, MIDEA.


Northbound Flows (3Q2026): CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

China International Capital  / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>As reported by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> global index trackers will start to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33010:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital (601995 CH)</a> at the close on Monday September 14th.</li>
<li>Tri-Party share-swap merger absorbing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongxing-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25320:1" rel="noopener">Dongxing Securities (601198 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cinda-securities-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45389:1" rel="noopener">Cinda Securities (601059 CH)</a> was approved by CSRC in early September 2026.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33010:1" rel="noopener">CICC</a>  is trading at good discount value, <strong>mildly oversold, according to our model, but it could go lower before global index trackers buy and push the price higher.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


As reported by Brian Freitas global index trackers will start to buy China International Capital (601995 CH) at the close on Monday September 14th.
Tri-Party share-swap merger absorbing Dongxing Securities (601198 CH) and Cinda Securities (601059 CH) was approved by CSRC in early September 2026.

CICC  is trading at good discount value, mildly oversold, according to our model, but it could go lower before global index trackers buy and push the price higher.



China International Capital (601995 CH) Post-Merger Tactical Outlook / Risks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals A / Index Rebalance

Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals A (002294 CH)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongxing-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25320:1" rel="noopener">Dongxing Securities (601198 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cinda-securities-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45389:1" rel="noopener">Cinda Securities (601059 CH)</a> shares will stop trading after 14 September following the merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33010:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital (601995 CH)</a>. </li>
<li>There will be buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33010:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital (601995 CH)</a> from global index trackers at the close on Monday.</li>
<li>There will be additions and other flows for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> and the CSI 1000 Index at the time of delisting of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongxing-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25320:1" rel="noopener">Dongxing Securities</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cinda-securities-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45389:1" rel="noopener">Cinda Securities</a>.</li>
</ul>



Dongxing Securities (601198 CH) and Cinda Securities (601059 CH) shares will stop trading after 14 September following the merger with China International Capital (601995 CH). 
There will be buying in China International Capital (601995 CH) from global index trackers at the close on Monday.
There will be additions and other flows for the CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index and the CSI 1000 Index at the time of delisting of Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities.


CICC/ Dongxing Sec/ Cinda Sec Merger: Index Flows Next Week & More Later

China

Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd. operates securities businesses. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, underwriting, securities asset management, fund consignment, financing, and intermediate services. Dongxing Securities conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

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Dongxing Securities (601198 CH)

Curator's Cut: Brokering Records, Race to SpaceX & The Rise of Physical AI

This Curator’s Cut highlights windfall for brokers amidst market volatility, index rule changes for megacap IPOs, and prospects for physical AI....

Pranav Rao

CICC (3908 HK): It's Getting More Interesting

Merger boosts earnings for CICC, as the combined group's earnings surged 66.9% in 1Q26. It led the Hong Kong IPO market with strong growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Northbound Flows (3Q2026): CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 3Q2026 and highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China International Capital (601995 CH) Post-Merger Tactical Outlook / Risks

While CICC (601995 CH) is set to absorb inflows from global passive index trackers effective Sep 14, our model identified a primary risk for fast...

Nico Rosti

CICC/ Dongxing Sec/ Cinda Sec Merger: Index Flows Next Week & More Later

Dongxing Sec and Cinda Sec stop trading from 15 Sep following the merger with CICC. There are changes for the CSI300/500/1000 indices and passive...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Curator's Cut: Brokering Records, Race to SpaceX & The Rise of Physical AI

​This Curator’s Cut highlights windfall for brokers amidst market volatility, index rule changes for megacap IPOs, and prospects for physical AI....

Pranav Rao

CICC (3908 HK): It's Getting More Interesting

​Merger boosts earnings for CICC, as the combined group's earnings surged 66.9% in 1Q26. It led the Hong Kong IPO market with strong growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Northbound Flows (3Q2026): CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 3Q2026 and highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China International Capital (601995 CH) Post-Merger Tactical Outlook / Risks

While CICC (601995 CH) is set to absorb inflows from global passive index trackers effective Sep 14, our model identified a primary risk for fast...

Nico Rosti

CICC/ Dongxing Sec/ Cinda Sec Merger: Index Flows Next Week & More Later

Dongxing Sec and Cinda Sec stop trading from 15 Sep following the merger with CICC. There are changes for the CSI300/500/1000 indices and passive...

Brian Freitas

This Curator’s Cut highlights windfall for brokers amidst market volatility, index rule changes for megacap IPOs, and prospects for physical AI....

Merger boosts earnings for CICC, as the combined group's earnings surged 66.9% in 1Q26. It led the Hong Kong IPO market with strong growth and...