Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Grab made its public debut on NASDAQ on 02nd of December. The company’s shares are currently trading at US$6.79 per share compared to US$13.06 per apiece at the open.</li>
<li>On Tuesday, several news media outlets reported that Grab has agreed to buy the Malaysian grocery chain Jaya Grocer to tap into the booming online groceries business in the region.</li>
<li>Our revised SOTP valuation offers significant upside to Grab’s current share price but we would caution investors about the upcoming lock-up expiry of a large number of Grab’s shares.</li>
</ul>


Grab made its public debut on NASDAQ on 02nd of December. The company’s shares are currently trading at US$6.79 per share compared to US$13.06 per apiece at the open.
On Tuesday, several news media outlets reported that Grab has agreed to buy the Malaysian grocery chain Jaya Grocer to tap into the booming online groceries business in the region.
Our revised SOTP valuation offers significant upside to Grab’s current share price but we would caution investors about the upcoming lock-up expiry of a large number of Grab’s shares.


TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Doordash and Uber have one of the biggest valuation discrepancies in consumer internet.</li>
<li>Doordash's stock is up 22% since earnings over an insanely rich acquisition for a second tier European asset.</li>
<li>Doordash's limited disclosures on its TAM adjacencies, which is part of the bull case are unusual.</li>
</ul>


Doordash and Uber have one of the biggest valuation discrepancies in consumer internet.
Doordash's stock is up 22% since earnings over an insanely rich acquisition for a second tier European asset.
Doordash's limited disclosures on its TAM adjacencies, which is part of the bull case are unusual.


DoorDash: Why Is Doordash 14x Sales and Uber 4x?

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a>'s recent results reflected a resilient performance as growth in deliveries more than offset the slower performance in mobility due to lockdowns across South-East Asia in 3Q2021.</li>
<li>The recovery is ongoing in mobility October and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> customers are spending more measured by GMV per monthly transacting user MTU plus margins are improving.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a>'s merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altimeter-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33007:1" rel="noopener">Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)</a> is on track for a December listing which will also raise US$4.5bn in new funds adding fuel for future expansion</li>
</ul>



Grab's recent results reflected a resilient performance as growth in deliveries more than offset the slower performance in mobility due to lockdowns across South-East Asia in 3Q2021.
The recovery is ongoing in mobility October and Grab customers are spending more measured by GMV per monthly transacting user MTU plus margins are improving.

Grab's merger with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US) is on track for a December listing which will also raise US$4.5bn in new funds adding fuel for future expansion


<p>This week we take a look at IAC’s proposed acquisition of Meredith, Facebook’s weird week, and the insane valuation disconnect between Uber and DoorDash.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

This week we take a look at IAC’s proposed acquisition of Meredith, Facebook’s weird week, and the insane valuation disconnect between Uber and DoorDash.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out the Week of September 24, 2021

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> just announced a strong set of 2Q2021 results in its results call this week, with GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) increasing by +62% YoY to a record high of US$3.9bn, whilst adjusted net sales reached a new quarterly high of US$550m, an increase of +92% YoY.</p>
<p>The company's revenue increased by +132% to US$180m, with adjusted EBITDA for 2Q2021 was (US$214m), down by US$8m YoY. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> booked a net loss of (US$815m) versus (US$718m) in 2Q2020 loss but of this number US$608m related to non-cash items related to interest accrued on the company convertible redeemable preference shares, stock-based compensation, depreciation, and amortisation. </p>
<p>Looking at a number of measures of profitability as % of GMV, Grab is moving in the right direction towards making a profit.</p>
<p>The company's delivery business continued to be a strong performer, with +68% YoY growth in adjusted net sales, whilst mobility was impacted by various lockdowns in the South-East Asia region but still performed very well versus last year. Take rates have improved for both deliveries and mobility segments.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> saw GMV per transacting user increase by +27% YoY in 2Q2021, with GrabFood's merchant base nearly doubling, and merchants using GrabPay nearly increasing three times. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> also highlighted the strong performance of GrabMart and its PayLater businesses in Singapore and Malaysia. It has also launched GrabSupermarket in three markets, which has seen a strong reception, according to management.</p>
<p>The company's financial services segment achieved another record quarter in terms of total payments, with a total payment volume of US$2.9bn in 2Q2021, a +66% increase from last year, although revenues remain quite small.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> announced a strategic alliance with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> in July, which has interests spanning technology. telecoms, media, and healthcare.  This gives grab access to e-commerce and SMEs through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a>. </p>
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure>
</section>
<p>The company highlighted that it sees encouraging trends for the rest of the year, as vaccination rates pick up but also flagged a note of caution given recent movement restrictions in South-East Asia, especially in Vietnam where even food deliveries are restricted currently.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> remains optimistic about the prospects for recovery as the region recovers over the next year, and it should benefit from this given its strong regional footprint but its competitors have been building war chests for their own expansion, which points towards rising competitive pressures</p>
<section class="figure">
<div>
<p>The company expects its merger with Altimeter Growth and listing to go ahead in 4Q2021 and has just filed its F4 prospectus today with the SEC in the US. </p>
</div>
<div></div>
<div>
<div>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>

Grab just announced a strong set of 2Q2021 results in its results call this week, with GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) increasing by +62% YoY to a record high of US$3.9bn, whilst adjusted net sales reached a new quarterly high of US$550m, an increase of +92% YoY.
The company's revenue increased by +132% to US$180m, with adjusted EBITDA for 2Q2021 was (US$214m), down by US$8m YoY. 
Grab booked a net loss of (US$815m) versus (US$718m) in 2Q2020 loss but of this number US$608m related to non-cash items related to interest accrued on the company convertible redeemable preference shares, stock-based compensation, depreciation, and amortisation. 
Looking at a number of measures of profitability as % of GMV, Grab is moving in the right direction towards making a profit.
The company's delivery business continued to be a strong performer, with +68% YoY growth in adjusted net sales, whilst mobility was impacted by various lockdowns in the South-East Asia region but still performed very well versus last year. Take rates have improved for both deliveries and mobility segments.
Grab saw GMV per transacting user increase by +27% YoY in 2Q2021, with GrabFood's merchant base nearly doubling, and merchants using GrabPay nearly increasing three times. 
Grab also highlighted the strong performance of GrabMart and its PayLater businesses in Singapore and Malaysia. It has also launched GrabSupermarket in three markets, which has seen a strong reception, according to management.
The company's financial services segment achieved another record quarter in terms of total payments, with a total payment volume of US$2.9bn in 2Q2021, a +66% increase from last year, although revenues remain quite small.
Grab announced a strategic alliance with Emtek (EMTK IJ) in July, which has interests spanning technology. telecoms, media, and healthcare.  This gives grab access to e-commerce and SMEs through Bukalapak (BUKA IJ). 



The company highlighted that it sees encouraging trends for the rest of the year, as vaccination rates pick up but also flagged a note of caution given recent movement restrictions in South-East Asia, especially in Vietnam where even food deliveries are restricted currently.
Grab remains optimistic about the prospects for recovery as the region recovers over the next year, and it should benefit from this given its strong regional footprint but its competitors have been building war chests for their own expansion, which points towards rising competitive pressures


The company expects its merger with Altimeter Growth and listing to go ahead in 4Q2021 and has just filed its F4 prospectus today with the SEC in the US. 











Grab - Greater Mobility Toward Profitability

United States

DoorDash, Inc. provides restaurant food delivery services. The Company develops technology to connect customers with merchants through an on-demand food delivery application. DoorDash serves customers in the United States.

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DoorDash (DASH US)

Grab SPAC: What Is Next?

Our revised SOTP valuation offers significant upside to Grab’s current share price but we would caution investors about the upcoming lock-up expiry...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

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While we have certainly been wrong to short DoorDash thus far, we are still sure it is mispriced. The question is… how to profit off of this?...

Aaron Gabin

Grab - Resilience in Motion

Grab's recent results reflected a resilient performance as growth in deliveries more than offset the slower performance in mobility due to...

Angus Mackintosh

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Aaron Gabin

Grab - Greater Mobility Toward Profitability

GRAB released a strong set of 2Q2021 results with rapid growth in both the delivery and mobility business, with financial services gaining momentum...

Angus Mackintosh

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