Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>~9 months ago as Japan reeled from Trump's Tariff Tantrum, Toyota Group announced a potential takeover of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>. In June, we got a process+price. Non-transparent. Opportunistic. Unfair. </li>
<li>They valued the transaction in one way, then announced a transaction structure which immediately changes the entire asset base of the company, and creates huge excess value for the buyers.</li>
<li>Process is bad. Analysis bad. The Special Committee and Board decisions bad. Sub-1x BVPS. Transaction structure immediately offers an additional 10+% to BVPS in cash to the buyers. It's offensive.</li>
</ul>


~9 months ago as Japan reeled from Trump's Tariff Tantrum, Toyota Group announced a potential takeover of Toyota Industries (6201 JP). In June, we got a process+price. Non-transparent. Opportunistic. Unfair. 
They valued the transaction in one way, then announced a transaction structure which immediately changes the entire asset base of the company, and creates huge excess value for the buyers.
Process is bad. Analysis bad. The Special Committee and Board decisions bad. Sub-1x BVPS. Transaction structure immediately offers an additional 10+% to BVPS in cash to the buyers. It's offensive.


[Japan M&A] Toyota RE Deal for Toyota Inds (6201) Part I; Offensive Process, Light Deal, Bun Fight?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Elliott has filed a substantial shareholder notice reporting a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> ownership of 16.3 million or 5.01% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The disclosure is likely a tactic to pressure Toyota Fudosan (offeror) and also a useful signalling tactic to other minorities that Elliott is committed to securing a bump.</li>
<li>A potential bump could reach JPY19,000. While this would require an additional US$4 billion, financing should not be an issue as the book value (understated) is close to JPY18,000. </li>
</ul>


Elliott has filed a substantial shareholder notice reporting a Toyota Industries (6201 JP) ownership of 16.3 million or 5.01% of outstanding shares.
The disclosure is likely a tactic to pressure Toyota Fudosan (offeror) and also a useful signalling tactic to other minorities that Elliott is committed to securing a bump.
A potential bump could reach JPY19,000. While this would require an additional US$4 billion, financing should not be an issue as the book value (understated) is close to JPY18,000. 


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Elliott Ramps up the Pressure

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>According to numerous local media, Doosan Bobcat is pursuing the acquisition of a controlling stake in Wacker Neuson Se (WAC GR), a German based compact construction equipment company. </li>
<li>Doosan Bobcat is apparently discussing a plan to acquire approximately 60% of Wacker Neuson. There are also discussions to secure the remaining shares of the company through a tender offer. </li>
<li>Wacker Neuson has a market cap of 1.46 billion EUR (2.5 trillion won) and the acquisition value for a 100% stake is expected to be more than 5 trillion won.</li>
</ul>


According to numerous local media, Doosan Bobcat is pursuing the acquisition of a controlling stake in Wacker Neuson Se (WAC GR), a German based compact construction equipment company. 
Doosan Bobcat is apparently discussing a plan to acquire approximately 60% of Wacker Neuson. There are also discussions to secure the remaining shares of the company through a tender offer. 
Wacker Neuson has a market cap of 1.46 billion EUR (2.5 trillion won) and the acquisition value for a 100% stake is expected to be more than 5 trillion won.


Doosan Bobcat: To Acquire the Controlling Stake & Conduct Tender Offer of Wacker Neuson?

<ul>
<li>In April there was a story suggesting Toyota Group would buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>. In June, they announced a deal. It was a BAD DEAL.  </li>
<li>The price was low, but it was BAD governance because it was the WRONG DEAL. TICO's Board declared a valuation fair for a deal not announced, ignoring the ACTUAL DEAL.</li>
<li>The valuation? Assumed no changes to the business. Actual deal? Sell 90+% of net assets driving 50% of net income, buy back 24+% of shares at discount. </li>
</ul>


In April there was a story suggesting Toyota Group would buy out Toyota Industries (6201 JP). In June, they announced a deal. It was a BAD DEAL.  
The price was low, but it was BAD governance because it was the WRONG DEAL. TICO's Board declared a valuation fair for a deal not announced, ignoring the ACTUAL DEAL.
The valuation? Assumed no changes to the business. Actual deal? Sell 90+% of net assets driving 50% of net income, buy back 24+% of shares at discount. 


[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) - Process ALWAYS Bad, Price Bad To Worse; Easily Worth ¥20k+

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>A doubling of the stock price over the last 3 months could lead to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7423:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Corp (000150 KS)</a> being included in a global index in August.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7423:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Corp (000150 KS)</a> has outperformed its peers over the last few months and now trades at a huge valuation premium to its peer group.</li>
<li>The stock is 17% off its recent highs and that provides an opportunity for a relative value trade heading into the index inclusion event.</li>
</ul>


A doubling of the stock price over the last 3 months could lead to Doosan Corp (000150 KS) being included in a global index in August.

Doosan Corp (000150 KS) has outperformed its peers over the last few months and now trades at a huge valuation premium to its peer group.
The stock is 17% off its recent highs and that provides an opportunity for a relative value trade heading into the index inclusion event.


Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade

South Korea

Bobcat Company specializes in design, manufacture, marketing and distribution of compact equipment for construction, rental, landscaping, agriculture, grounds maintenance, government, utility, industry and mining.

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Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS)

[Japan M&A] Toyota RE Deal for Toyota Inds (6201) Part I; Offensive Process, Light Deal, Bun Fight?

I assume shareholders have been meeting Toyota Inds and Group since June. They had no effect. Deal process is still offensive. Awful governance....

Travis Lundy

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Elliott Ramps up the Pressure

The disclosure is likely a tactic to pressure Toyota Fudosan (offeror) and also a useful signalling tactic to other minorities that Elliott has...

Arun George

Doosan Bobcat: To Acquire the Controlling Stake & Conduct Tender Offer of Wacker Neuson?

According to numerous local media, Doosan Bobcat is pursuing the acquisition of a controlling stake in Wacker Neuson Se (WAC GR), a German based...

Douglas Kim

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) - Process ALWAYS Bad, Price Bad To Worse; Easily Worth ¥20k+

The TICO buyout proposed by Toyota Fudosan in June was an elegant and greedy structure for the buyer, but inappropriate for TICO shareholders. It...

Travis Lundy

Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Global Index Inclusion & A Relative Value Trade

Doosan Corp's stock price has doubled over the last 3 months, in part due to the rally in Enerbility. Doosan Corp could be added to a global index...

Brian Freitas

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