Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, I provide an investment thesis on Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) which is a Korean nuclear powerhouse. </li>
<li>In addition, I highlight the likely pre-IPO investment in Westinghouse Electric (US) which is likely to occur in 4Q 2026/1Q 2027. </li>
<li>Despite the long-term higher demand for nuclear and SMRs made by Doosan Enerbility, I remain wary of the company's high valuation multiples and worsening balance sheet.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, I provide an investment thesis on Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) which is a Korean nuclear powerhouse. 
In addition, I highlight the likely pre-IPO investment in Westinghouse Electric (US) which is likely to occur in 4Q 2026/1Q 2027. 
Despite the long-term higher demand for nuclear and SMRs made by Doosan Enerbility, I remain wary of the company's high valuation multiples and worsening balance sheet.


Doosan Enerbility: A Korean Nuclear Powerhouse + Likely Pre-IPO Investment in Westinghouse

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. </li>
<li>Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.</li>
<li>There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.</li>
</ul>


Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.


Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated short interest was USD19.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in HLB, DWEC, NAVER, Samsung Elec (PREF), Doosan Enerbility.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated short interest was USD19.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in HLB, DWEC, NAVER, Samsung Elec (PREF), Doosan Enerbility.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): HLB, DWEC, NAVER, Samsung Elec (PREF), Doosan Enerbility

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated holding was USD1,724.3bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD6,402mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Woori Financial, SamsungElecMech, Doosan Enerbility.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated holding was USD1,724.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD6,402mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Woori Financial, SamsungElecMech, Doosan Enerbility.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 2nd): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Woori Financial

South Korea

Doosan Enerbility Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes construction machines. The Company produces gas turbines, engines, turbine generators, boilers, power plant equipment, and other related products. Doosan Enerbility also offers energy solutions for thermal power, nuclear power, and renewable energy.

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Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS)

Doosan Enerbility: A Korean Nuclear Powerhouse + Likely Pre-IPO Investment in Westinghouse

Despite the long-term higher demand for nuclear and SMRs made by Doosan Enerbility, I remain wary of the company's high valuation multiples and...

Douglas Kim

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea commences from Monday. There will be a lot of interest in shorting stocks/sectors depending on how they have performed since...

Brian Freitas

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): HLB, DWEC, NAVER, Samsung Elec (PREF), Doosan Enerbility

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in HLB, DWEC, NAVER, Samsung Elec (PREF), Doosan...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 2nd): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Woori Financial

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Woori Financial,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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