Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Zhihu Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhihu-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32185:1" rel="noopener">Zhihu Technology (ZH US)</a> announced its IPO terms. It plans to raise up to $632.5 million offering 55 million ADSs. The IPO price range is from $9.50 to $11.5 per share. At the mid point of the IPO price range, the company would be valued at $6.2 billion. At the high end of the IPO price range ($11.5 per share), it would be valued at $6.8 billion. Along with the IPO, Zhihu also plans to raise $250 million in a private placement to Alibaba, JD.com, Tencent, and Lilith Games.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Our base case and high case implied market caps of the company are $7.1 billion ($12 per share) and $9.0 billion ($15.2 per share), respectively. We do believe that there will be a first day pop for this IPO and expect its market cap could reach the high end of the valuation sensitivity analysis (market cap of $9.0 billion or $15.2 per share). In the first few days of trading post IPO, we expect the company's market cap to be trading in the mid-to-high end of our valuation analysis ($12 to $15.2 per share). We have a positive view of the Zhihu IPO. </p></div>

Zhihu Technology (ZH US) announced its IPO terms. It plans to raise up to $632.5 million offering 55 million ADSs. The IPO price range is from $9.50 to $11.5 per share. At the mid point of the IPO price range, the company would be valued at $6.2 billion. At the high end of the IPO price range ($11.5 per share), it would be valued at $6.8 billion. Along with the IPO, Zhihu also plans to raise $250 million in a private placement to Alibaba, JD.com, Tencent, and Lilith Games.Our base case and high case implied market caps of the company are $7.1 billion ($12 per share) and $9.0 billion ($15.2 per share), respectively. We do believe that there will be a first day pop for this IPO and expect its market cap could reach the high end of the valuation sensitivity analysis (market cap of $9.0 billion or $15.2 per share). In the first few days of trading post IPO, we expect the company's market cap to be trading in the mid-to-high end of our valuation analysis ($12 to $15.2 per share). We have a positive view of the Zhihu IPO. 

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>As anticipated, the Chinese mobile games and video platform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a>  has received the approval for a secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. According to Bloomberg, Bilibili could raise about US$3bn through its secondary listing.</p><p>We discussed Bilibili’s business model, its segments, financials and also compared the company’s business model and financials with its closest competitor Huya. This insight will focus on Bilibili’s current valuation.</p><p>Read our previous insights:</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bilibili-4q-earnings-value-added-services-surpass-mobile-games-e-commerce-gains-momentum" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48569" rel="noopener">Bilibili 4Q Earnings: Value-Added Services Surpass Mobile Games; E-Commerce Gains Momentum</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bilibili-vs-huya-strong-top-line-growth-outspending-huya-on-marketing-reason-for-absence-of-profits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47309" rel="noopener">Bilibili Vs Huya:Strong Top Line Growth; Outspending Huya on Marketing-Reason for Absence of Profits</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bilibili-secondary-listing-diversifying-revenue-mix-should-make-profits-possible-in-the-medium-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47049" rel="noopener">Bilibili Secondary Listing: Diversifying Revenue Mix Should Make Profits Possible in the Medium Term</a> </p>

As anticipated, the Chinese mobile games and video platform Bilibili Inc (BILI US)  has received the approval for a secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. According to Bloomberg, Bilibili could raise about US$3bn through its secondary listing.We discussed Bilibili’s business model, its segments, financials and also compared the company’s business model and financials with its closest competitor Huya. This insight will focus on Bilibili’s current valuation.Read our previous insights:Bilibili 4Q Earnings: Value-Added Services Surpass Mobile Games; E-Commerce Gains Momentum Bilibili Vs Huya:Strong Top Line Growth; Outspending Huya on Marketing-Reason for Absence of Profits Bilibili Secondary Listing: Diversifying Revenue Mix Should Make Profits Possible in the Medium Term 

Bilibili: Diversified Revenue Streams and Impressive Top Line Growth Justify Current Multiples

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhihu-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32185:1" rel="noopener">Zhihu Technology (ZH US)</a> is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC. Zhihu is acknowledged as the first choice among all online content communities in China where people look for information to make decisions or find answers, according to CIC. Zhihu is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Zhihu is pre-marketing an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. <span>In </span><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-ipo-initiation-question-time" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48928" rel="noopener">Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time</a><span>, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Zhihu's potential valuation. </span></p></div>
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Zhihu Technology (ZH US) is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC. Zhihu is acknowledged as the first choice among all online content communities in China where people look for information to make decisions or find answers, according to CIC. Zhihu is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and Baidu (BIDU US).
Zhihu is pre-marketing an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. In Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Zhihu's potential valuation. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p>Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$300m in its Hong Kong IPO. According to F&amp;S, it was the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China by revenue in 2019, with a market share of 8.7%.</p></div><div>
<p>Over 2017-19, Bairong’s revenue expanded by 3.56x or at 88.8% CAGR. While its data analytics revenue increased by 66% over the period, its precision marketing services revenue grew 22.6x, and insurance distribution grew 54.5x. Over the same time, gross profit grew 3.99x and adjusted EBITDA, PAT and OCF all turned positive during that period.</p>
<p>I've covered the positive aspects of the deal in my earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-the-positives-largest-independent-big-data-analytics-provider" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - The Positives - Largest Independent Big-Data Analytics Provider</a>.</p>
</div><div><p>In this insight, I'll talk about the not so pleasant aspects.</p></div>

Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$300m in its Hong Kong IPO. According to F&amp;S, it was the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China by revenue in 2019, with a market share of 8.7%.
Over 2017-19, Bairong’s revenue expanded by 3.56x or at 88.8% CAGR. While its data analytics revenue increased by 66% over the period, its precision marketing services revenue grew 22.6x, and insurance distribution grew 54.5x. Over the same time, gross profit grew 3.99x and adjusted EBITDA, PAT and OCF all turned positive during that period.
I've covered the positive aspects of the deal in my earlier note, Bairong Pre-IPO - The Positives - Largest Independent Big-Data Analytics Provider.
In this insight, I'll talk about the not so pleasant aspects.

Bairong Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Playing with Its Own Data

Kuaishou Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Kuaishou will commence trading on Friday, 05 February. Kuaishou priced its IPO at HK$115 and <a href="http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1074361/ipo-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opened 1x higher</a> at HK$230 in the grey market and last stood at HK$278.</p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-initiation-dancing-to-its-own-tune" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45032" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune</a>, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-thrill-seekers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47104" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO: Thrill Seekers</a>, we noted that the PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47381" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$137.42 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price is attractive but the grey market price is fully priced. </p></div></div></div>

Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Kuaishou will commence trading on Friday, 05 February. Kuaishou priced its IPO at HK$115 and opened 1x higher at HK$230 in the grey market and last stood at HK$278.In Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In Kuaishou IPO: Thrill Seekers, we noted that the PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. In Kuaishou IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive.Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$137.42 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price is attractive but the grey market price is fully priced. 

United States

DouYu International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on development of live game streaming. DouYu International Holdings serves customers in China.

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Douyu International Holdings (DOYU US)

Zhihu IPO Valuation Analysis

In the first few days of trading post IPO, we expect Zhihu's market cap to be trading in the mid-to-high end of our valuation analysis ($12 to...

Douglas Kim

Bilibili: Diversified Revenue Streams and Impressive Top Line Growth Justify Current Multiples

we believe Bilibili should be considered as a comprehensive internet stock rather than a streaming platform given its growing exposure into other...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Zhihu IPO: Valuation First Look

Zhihu is pre-marketing an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the...

Arun George

Bairong Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Playing with Its Own Data

Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$300m in its Hong...

Sumeet Singh

Kuaishou IPO: Trading Debut

Kuaishou priced its IPO at HK$115 and the grey market price last stood at HK$278. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the grey market price is...

Arun George

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