Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P GSCI (GSG) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM ETF) are the two key benchmarks for commodity investing, but both track futures contracts, not spot prices.</li>
<li>Over 10 years, spot oil, copper, and gold rose strongly, yet these indices delivered flat to negative returns due to roll yield drag, rebalancing, and higher fees.</li>
<li>They work best as tactical inflation hedges — GSCI for high-beta oil exposure, BCOM for more diversified commodity exposure — not as long-term compounding assets.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P GSCI (GSG) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM ETF) are the two key benchmarks for commodity investing, but both track futures contracts, not spot prices.
Over 10 years, spot oil, copper, and gold rose strongly, yet these indices delivered flat to negative returns due to roll yield drag, rebalancing, and higher fees.
They work best as tactical inflation hedges — GSCI for high-beta oil exposure, BCOM for more diversified commodity exposure — not as long-term compounding assets.


Understanding Commodity Indices: S&P GSCI (GSG) Vs Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM ETF)

<ul>
<li>Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.</li>
<li>Top picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-metals-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15467:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a> </li>
<li>Top shorts: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 


Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.</li>
<li>The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.</li>
<li>Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024</li>
</ul>


The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.
The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.
Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024


Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.</li>
<li>Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. </li>
<li>Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.</li>
</ul>


DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.
Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. 
Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.


Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI INDEX)

Understanding Commodity Indices: S&P GSCI (GSG) Vs Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM ETF)

Key commodity indices like S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index track futures contracts, not spot prices, leading to flat to negative returns...

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Understanding Commodity Indices: S&P GSCI (GSG) Vs Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM ETF)

​Key commodity indices like S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index track futures contracts, not spot prices, leading to flat to negative returns...

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

​Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

​Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

​Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Key commodity indices like S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index track futures contracts, not spot prices, leading to flat to negative returns...

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...