House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>This week has been crucial for markets. Because some of the most important central banks released their monetary policy expectations for next year</li><li>The Fed will accelerate the tapering (from $15 Bln to $30 Bln) and its officials now expect to raise interest rates three times next year and three times in 2023</li><li>The ECB has been probably the most dovish among the central banks: it left key rates unchanged and it doesn’t foresee to raise them in 2022</li></ul>

This week has been crucial for markets. Because some of the most important central banks released their monetary policy expectations for next yearThe Fed will accelerate the tapering (from $15 Bln to $30 Bln) and its officials now expect to raise interest rates three times next year and three times in 2023The ECB has been probably the most dovish among the central banks: it left key rates unchanged and it doesn’t foresee to raise them in 2022

The week of the Central Banks: expectations, surprises and reactions

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Base case call to buy the SPX/select risk in Asia near SPX 4,500 for a rally sequence into mid-December where we see a top and secondary decline into late December.</li>
<li>Key resistance lies at 4,650/70 which is a barrier that capped recent rally attempts. This will define risk in Asia and Europe next week.</li>
<li>SPX daily RSI resistance is the ideal fresh sell zone in mid-December. Risk concerns stems from Omicron, year-end position/tax and euphoria unwinding.</li>
</ul>


Base case call to buy the SPX/select risk in Asia near SPX 4,500 for a rally sequence into mid-December where we see a top and secondary decline into late December.
Key resistance lies at 4,650/70 which is a barrier that capped recent rally attempts. This will define risk in Asia and Europe next week.
SPX daily RSI resistance is the ideal fresh sell zone in mid-December. Risk concerns stems from Omicron, year-end position/tax and euphoria unwinding.


Rally into Mid December - SPX Pivot the Defining Line

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>M2 growth consistently in the 12-13% YoY range is the key reason why all core inflation gauges scaled 30-year highs last month. Fiscal stimulus was a secondary contributor.</li>
<li>Mere tapering of asset purchases will not materially slow M2 growth, and housing will likely boost inflation further. FOMC will be obliged to tighten earlier in 2022 than markets expect. </li>
<li>Despite the US$1.2tn Infrastructure Act, the fiscal deficit in FY2022 will be only 5% of GDP, from 12.4% in FY2021, restraining the recovery. Stagflation will result by mid-2022. </li>
</ul>


M2 growth consistently in the 12-13% YoY range is the key reason why all core inflation gauges scaled 30-year highs last month. Fiscal stimulus was a secondary contributor.
Mere tapering of asset purchases will not materially slow M2 growth, and housing will likely boost inflation further. FOMC will be obliged to tighten earlier in 2022 than markets expect. 
Despite the US$1.2tn Infrastructure Act, the fiscal deficit in FY2022 will be only 5% of GDP, from 12.4% in FY2021, restraining the recovery. Stagflation will result by mid-2022. 


Inflation Caused by Monetary Surge; Risk of Stagflation in 2022 Amid Fiscal Tightening

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Call for a US equity pullback into late November to find a foothold and bounce with a weaker cycle due into late December is on track.</li>
<li>SPX under shoot Monday with support at 4,540 to set up a reaction rally. DJI below 35,500 was our risk pivot.</li>
<li>Measure bounce into early to mid-December secondary cycle peak for a weaker late December phase. Shorts are focused in DJI, IBEX, HSI, NKY, Nifty and EEM.</li>
</ul>


Call for a US equity pullback into late November to find a foothold and bounce with a weaker cycle due into late December is on track.
SPX under shoot Monday with support at 4,540 to set up a reaction rally. DJI below 35,500 was our risk pivot.
Measure bounce into early to mid-December secondary cycle peak for a weaker late December phase. Shorts are focused in DJI, IBEX, HSI, NKY, Nifty and EEM.


Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

<ul>
<li>Tonight's close on the S&amp;P 500 will be important and should be watched closely</li>
<li>We are in line for a weekly reversal at the highs - something that has not been seen in this whole bull trend from March 2020</li>
<li>Weekly negative divergence would suggest a prolonged consolidation or correction down towards year end</li>
</ul>


Tonight's close on the S&amp;P 500 will be important and should be watched closely
We are in line for a weekly reversal at the highs - something that has not been seen in this whole bull trend from March 2020
Weekly negative divergence would suggest a prolonged consolidation or correction down towards year end


United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

The week of the Central Banks: expectations, surprises and reactions

This week has been crucial for markets. Because some of the most important central banks released their monetary policy expectations for next year

Market Radar

Rally into Mid December - SPX Pivot the Defining Line

Base case call to buy the SPX/select risk in Asia near SPX 4,500 for a rally sequence into mid-December where we see a top and secondary decline...

Thomas Schroeder

Inflation Caused by Monetary Surge; Risk of Stagflation in 2022 Amid Fiscal Tightening

Fiscal deficit to fall from 12% of GDP in FY2021 to 5% in FY2022, dragging growth down. 18 months of 12-27%YoY M2 growth will keep inflation high...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Plunge Targets

Call for a US equity pullback into late November to find a foothold and bounce with a weaker cycle due into late December is on track.

Thomas Schroeder

US Price Action Update

Price action since the start of the week has been concerning. The week's close will be key in identifying the risks over the coming days/weeks. We...

Shyam Devani