Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

US bull energy remains well supported on dips and will lend support to the impulsive bull breakouts in Asia.Bull triangles are macro bullish for new chart highs. Will be measuring pullback energy within pattern ranges. Only the NDX shows a weaker lead bias to test the mid triangle range.SPX – Call for a pullback/rally stall from 3,600+ to test the resolve of 3,500 support (NDX below pattern resistance a correlation warning). Below 3,500 targets 3,420. Holding 3,500-10 is viewed as bullish for a new rally cycle.NDX flirting with the 12.1k breakout point. Fading from this triangle barrier has buy points at 11,600 (met) and 11,400. We like buying any move back within the triangle range.Stimulus expectations remain the core driver for risk as well as a weaker USD. We are alert to near term risks that would provide a buying opportunity - Extended bull sentiment, vaccine rollout wrinkles, and rising case counts/shutdowns.

US bull energy remains well supported on dips and will lend support to the impulsive bull breakouts in Asia.Bull triangles are macro bullish for new chart highs. Will be measuring pullback energy within pattern ranges. Only the NDX shows a weaker lead bias to test the mid triangle range.SPX – Call for a pullback/rally stall from 3,600+ to test the resolve of 3,500 support (NDX below pattern resistance a correlation warning). Below 3,500 targets 3,420. Holding 3,500-10 is viewed as bullish for a new rally cycle.NDX flirting with the 12.1k breakout point. Fading from this triangle barrier has buy points at 11,600 (met) and 11,400. We like buying any move back within the triangle range.Stimulus expectations remain the core driver for risk as well as a weaker USD. We are alert to near term risks that would provide a buying opportunity - Extended bull sentiment, vaccine rollout wrinkles, and rising case counts/shutdowns.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

The pollsters have egg on their faces again, with President Trump performing far better than the polls had suggested all year. The Electoral College is close to a dead heat, with the "path to the presidency" for Biden hanging by slender margins in 4 states. President Trump disingenuously suggested that votes "cast after election day" are still being counted -- and that he would mount legal challenges to stop the counting. This was the nightmare scenario: an extremely close election, with Trump leading in several states on Election Day, only to have that vote count overturned in favour of Biden once the mail-in/absentee ballots were (legitimately) counted. Our estimate suggests that former Vice President Biden will still win the presidency, but do so after a messy counting process, with wild swings in many states -- particularly the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina. Trump won Ohio (as polls had suggested) and Florida (against the polls, which had suggested a narrow Biden win there). As was widely expected, Michigan and Pennsylvania were able to start counting mail-in ballots only on Election Day, and these have delayed the process. But with likely victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia, Joe Biden will get past the magic mark of 270 in the Electoral College, and be elected President. However, the Democrats are likely to see their majority in the House of Representatives whittled down severely, and the Senate will likely stay in Republican hands, which will oblige President-elect Biden to hew to the centrist line he prefers.  Biden is still likely to be able to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% (30.8% for corporates that have offshored goods and services), and undertake some of his plans for boosting infrastructure and green investment. But the more radical parts of the Democratic platform will be much tougher to enact -- including expanding the Supreme Court, widening Obamacare, and extending green regulation. Instead, Biden is likely to include a couple of Republicans in his Cabinet, and rule from the centre. While the next few days will be taken up with Trumpian legal challenges to the counting process -- which will prolong the uncertainty over the election outcome -- a Biden win will soon come to be accepted by most, including many Republicans. We were expecting a big sell-off in the market in November if there was a "blue wave". But this form of divided government is a better outcome: after a sell-off of 4-5% as the market digests the uncertainty and the impact of the Biden tax hikes on corporates, we expect the equity market to rebound. On a 3-6 month view, we are positive on the outlook for equities.

The pollsters have egg on their faces again, with President Trump performing far better than the polls had suggested all year. The Electoral College is close to a dead heat, with the "path to the presidency" for Biden hanging by slender margins in 4 states. President Trump disingenuously suggested that votes "cast after election day" are still being counted -- and that he would mount legal challenges to stop the counting. This was the nightmare scenario: an extremely close election, with Trump leading in several states on Election Day, only to have that vote count overturned in favour of Biden once the mail-in/absentee ballots were (legitimately) counted. Our estimate suggests that former Vice President Biden will still win the presidency, but do so after a messy counting process, with wild swings in many states -- particularly the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina. Trump won Ohio (as polls had suggested) and Florida (against the polls, which had suggested a narrow Biden win there). As was widely expected, Michigan and Pennsylvania were able to start counting mail-in ballots only on Election Day, and these have delayed the process. But with likely victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia, Joe Biden will get past the magic mark of 270 in the Electoral College, and be elected President. However, the Democrats are likely to see their majority in the House of Representatives whittled down severely, and the Senate will likely stay in Republican hands, which will oblige President-elect Biden to hew to the centrist line he prefers.  Biden is still likely to be able to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% (30.8% for corporates that have offshored goods and services), and undertake some of his plans for boosting infrastructure and green investment. But the more radical parts of the Democratic platform will be much tougher to enact -- including expanding the Supreme Court, widening Obamacare, and extending green regulation. Instead, Biden is likely to include a couple of Republicans in his Cabinet, and rule from the centre. While the next few days will be taken up with Trumpian legal challenges to the counting process -- which will prolong the uncertainty over the election outcome -- a Biden win will soon come to be accepted by most, including many Republicans. We were expecting a big sell-off in the market in November if there was a "blue wave". But this form of divided government is a better outcome: after a sell-off of 4-5% as the market digests the uncertainty and the impact of the Biden tax hikes on corporates, we expect the equity market to rebound. On a 3-6 month view, we are positive on the outlook for equities.    

Election Cliffhanger Brings Near-Term Nightmare; but a Curtailed Left Helps Biden

A Deep (big) Blue Wave will be bad for markets, empowering the Democratic left which will pursue an inflationary strategy that hurts equities. Despite Biden's seemingly widening lead in the polls, the likeliest outcome is a narrow presidential win and a Light Blue Wave, which obliges the Democratic Congress to hew to the centre (Biden's preference). After an initial sell-off amid uncertainty in November, a Light Blue Wave will be good for equities, bad for bonds as the yield curve steepens and growth prospects improve into 2021.  President Trump's Covid-positive diagnosis, and his subsequent behaviour in and upon leaving the Walter Reed military hospital, did not help his poll numbers. Instead, the undecided or swing voters have begun tilting toward Biden, raising the increased possibility of a "blue wave", with the Democrats winning the Presidency, Senate and the House, hence ending divided government. Biden's current national lead is 9.4 percentage points (3.6pp ahead of where Hillary Clinton was at this stage in 2016), and Biden leads in all the swing states (albeit narrowly in Ohio and Florida). Last week's rival townhalls also saw slightly higher viewership for the sedate and wonkish Biden than the always-colourful Trump. The bigger the Blue Wave, however, the worse for markets. A big Blue Wave will hand the initiative to the left of the Democratic Party, enabling more of the Green New Deal to be enacted, and for legislators to push for aspects of the Medicare for All proposals. And the Democrats would also seek to "pack the Supreme Court" (i.e., expand it beyond 9 members). Despite Biden's promised tax increases, such an agenda will be severely negative for markets and the economy -- likely resulting in a big Republican backlash in the 2022 mid-term Congressional election. The greater the Blue Wave, the more negative we would be about the outcome for markets (especially equities). However, the likelier outcome is a soft Blue Wave, i.e., with the Democrats winning no more than 51 seats in the Senate, and a narrow victory for Biden in the Electoral College. If that is the outcome, November will be a month of uncertainty and chaos, with a substantial sell-off in markets. But thereafter, once the electoral outcomes are clear, the narrow Senate majority (with the Class of 2020 dominated by moderate/centrist Democrats) will curtail any thoughts of a radical leftward shift. It would instead provide the ideal ground for a President Biden to govern from the centre -- in keeping with his natural instinct. Taxes on corporates and the top 1% of personal-income earners will rise sharply, but the moderate agenda will see enhanced spending on infrastructure, subsidies for green-technology, and a mild expansion/reform of Obamacare. While the program will be moderately inflationary (resulting in Fed Funds rates rising by mid-2021), it will be good for the economy and equities after the November sell-off. On a 3-6 month view, we would recommend switching from bonds to equities by the end of November.

A Deep (big) Blue Wave will be bad for markets, empowering the Democratic left which will pursue an inflationary strategy that hurts equities. Despite Biden's seemingly widening lead in the polls, the likeliest outcome is a narrow presidential win and a Light Blue Wave, which obliges the Democratic Congress to hew to the centre (Biden's preference). After an initial sell-off amid uncertainty in November, a Light Blue Wave will be good for equities, bad for bonds as the yield curve steepens and growth prospects improve into 2021.  President Trump's Covid-positive diagnosis, and his subsequent behaviour in and upon leaving the Walter Reed military hospital, did not help his poll numbers. Instead, the undecided or swing voters have begun tilting toward Biden, raising the increased possibility of a "blue wave", with the Democrats winning the Presidency, Senate and the House, hence ending divided government. Biden's current national lead is 9.4 percentage points (3.6pp ahead of where Hillary Clinton was at this stage in 2016), and Biden leads in all the swing states (albeit narrowly in Ohio and Florida). Last week's rival townhalls also saw slightly higher viewership for the sedate and wonkish Biden than the always-colourful Trump. The bigger the Blue Wave, however, the worse for markets. A big Blue Wave will hand the initiative to the left of the Democratic Party, enabling more of the Green New Deal to be enacted, and for legislators to push for aspects of the Medicare for All proposals. And the Democrats would also seek to "pack the Supreme Court" (i.e., expand it beyond 9 members). Despite Biden's promised tax increases, such an agenda will be severely negative for markets and the economy -- likely resulting in a big Republican backlash in the 2022 mid-term Congressional election. The greater the Blue Wave, the more negative we would be about the outcome for markets (especially equities). However, the likelier outcome is a soft Blue Wave, i.e., with the Democrats winning no more than 51 seats in the Senate, and a narrow victory for Biden in the Electoral College. If that is the outcome, November will be a month of uncertainty and chaos, with a substantial sell-off in markets. But thereafter, once the electoral outcomes are clear, the narrow Senate majority (with the Class of 2020 dominated by moderate/centrist Democrats) will curtail any thoughts of a radical leftward shift. It would instead provide the ideal ground for a President Biden to govern from the centre -- in keeping with his natural instinct. Taxes on corporates and the top 1% of personal-income earners will rise sharply, but the moderate agenda will see enhanced spending on infrastructure, subsidies for green-technology, and a mild expansion/reform of Obamacare. While the program will be moderately inflationary (resulting in Fed Funds rates rising by mid-2021), it will be good for the economy and equities after the November sell-off. On a 3-6 month view, we would recommend switching from bonds to equities by the end of November. 

A "Blue Wave" Is Better than the Worst Outcome, but Won't Be Great for Markets

Buy levels for US equities remains just above pivotal breakout levels that represent fresh inflection support in the SPX, NDX and DJI.SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 remain the key inflection levels and supports to initiate buy levels above this support threshold. Below supports would be a negative.Delayed stimulus measures are the key risk factor in coming weeks that will provide buying opportunities for new highs in the US and outperforming Europe and Asia.

Buy levels for US equities remains just above pivotal breakout levels that represent fresh inflection support in the SPX, NDX and DJI.SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 remain the key inflection levels and supports to initiate buy levels above this support threshold. Below supports would be a negative.Delayed stimulus measures are the key risk factor in coming weeks that will provide buying opportunities for new highs in the US and outperforming Europe and Asia.

The presidential debates are usually totems of democracy's best features--as two (occasionally three) candidates lay out their arguments cordially before a national audience. The first debate of the Fall 2020 campaign was anything but a talismanic symbol of American democracy, doing little to change voters' minds. But it greatly heightened the risks of a chaotic November in the US, possibly the most chaotic post-election scenario since 1860-61. The first inter-party presidential debate of the 2020 election cycle was an ugly tie: there was no clear winner in an incoherent and undignified brawl that hardly aired any of the election's key issues. Trump's abrasive style likely strengthened the degree of support from his base. Biden's uneven performance (a few good lines, drowned in bouts of incoherence) did not enhance his appeal to the wider electorate, but he held his own (thus refuting Trump's suggestions that he is senile), and made no significant gaffes (apart from one false claim about the US-China trade deficit, and a brief defense of the Green New Deal, which he was soon obliged to repudiate). President Trump appeared intent on questioning the legitimacy of the election process -- particularly mail-in ballots. Asked by moderator Chris Wallace (from the conservative Fox News channel) to reassure voters of the integrity of the voting process, Biden complied--and made a strong, direct pitch to voters to go out and vote. Trump said the voting process is "a disaster", a "fraud and a shame". When asked if each candidate would wait until a result/outcome had been certified before declaring victory, and would tell his supporters to stay calm in the intervening period, Trump declined to do so--especially if it was "a fraudulent process".At this stage, President Trump appears to have decided he will lose the election, and is hence preparing his supporters to question the legitimacy of the election -- a dangerous and unprecedented situation that has not occurred in any election since the 19th century.  November 2020 was already looking like a terrible month for the US, but it has just become much more dangerous, as the sitting president has begun questioning the legitimacy of the entire electoral process. In the 1860 election, the refusal of many states to accept the outcome (a victory for Lincoln) led to a Civil War, as southern states unhappy with the outcome chose to secede. November 2020 will not necessarily signal a Civil War, but is likely to result in an ugly and chaotic month or two in US politics -- uncertainty that will be very negative for global equities and risk assets. The US dollar is likely to gain strength this quarter, as will gold prices.

The presidential debates are usually totems of democracy's best features--as two (occasionally three) candidates lay out their arguments cordially before a national audience. The first debate of the Fall 2020 campaign was anything but a talismanic symbol of American democracy, doing little to change voters' minds. But it greatly heightened the risks of a chaotic November in the US, possibly the most chaotic post-election scenario since 1860-61. The first inter-party presidential debate of the 2020 election cycle was an ugly tie: there was no clear winner in an incoherent and undignified brawl that hardly aired any of the election's key issues. Trump's abrasive style likely strengthened the degree of support from his base. Biden's uneven performance (a few good lines, drowned in bouts of incoherence) did not enhance his appeal to the wider electorate, but he held his own (thus refuting Trump's suggestions that he is senile), and made no significant gaffes (apart from one false claim about the US-China trade deficit, and a brief defense of the Green New Deal, which he was soon obliged to repudiate). President Trump appeared intent on questioning the legitimacy of the election process -- particularly mail-in ballots. Asked by moderator Chris Wallace (from the conservative Fox News channel) to reassure voters of the integrity of the voting process, Biden complied--and made a strong, direct pitch to voters to go out and vote. Trump said the voting process is "a disaster", a "fraud and a shame". When asked if each candidate would wait until a result/outcome had been certified before declaring victory, and would tell his supporters to stay calm in the intervening period, Trump declined to do so--especially if it was "a fraudulent process".At this stage, President Trump appears to have decided he will lose the election, and is hence preparing his supporters to question the legitimacy of the election -- a dangerous and unprecedented situation that has not occurred in any election since the 19th century.  November 2020 was already looking like a terrible month for the US, but it has just become much more dangerous, as the sitting president has begun questioning the legitimacy of the entire electoral process. In the 1860 election, the refusal of many states to accept the outcome (a victory for Lincoln) led to a Civil War, as southern states unhappy with the outcome chose to secede. November 2020 will not necessarily signal a Civil War, but is likely to result in an ugly and chaotic month or two in US politics -- uncertainty that will be very negative for global equities and risk assets. The US dollar is likely to gain strength this quarter, as will gold prices.  

Ugly, Disorderly Debate Raises the Spectre of 1824, if Not 1860

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Buy SPX Dips for New Highs

US bull energy remains well supported on dips and will lend support to the impulsive bull breakouts in Asia. Bull triangles are macro bullish for...

Thomas Schroeder

Election Cliffhanger Brings Near-Term Nightmare; but a Curtailed Left Helps Biden

Uncertainty will be prolonged by legal challenges. But President-elect Biden will govern from the center, given a GOP Senate. After initial sell...

Prasenjit K. Basu

A "Blue Wave" Is Better than the Worst Outcome, but Won't Be Great for Markets

A big Blue Wave will be bad for markets, empowering the left's radical agenda. But the likelier outcome is a light Blue Wave, with 50-51 Dem...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Equity Buy Levels

Buy levels for US equities remains just above pivotal breakout levels that represent fresh inflection support in the SPX, NDX and DJI and will...

Thomas Schroeder

Ugly, Disorderly Debate Raises the Spectre of 1824, if Not 1860

The first president

Prasenjit K. Basu