Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's share of US imports will halve in 2025 from Mar'18 peak of 21.8%, and ASEAN's share (led by Vietnam) will rise to 14%. India, Korea, Taiwan's shares gain too. </li>
<li>There was a big surge in Asian exports to the US in Jun-Jul'25 to beat tariffs, but tariffs will alter patterns in 4Q2025, cutting export growth and reducing US disinflation. </li>
<li>The rebound in US steel production (+4.6%YoY in Jun-Jul'25) and ISM manufacturing new orders suggests select American industries (metals, automobiles, electronics) will gain but downstream users will suffer steadily more. </li>
</ul>


China's share of US imports will halve in 2025 from Mar'18 peak of 21.8%, and ASEAN's share (led by Vietnam) will rise to 14%. India, Korea, Taiwan's shares gain too. 
There was a big surge in Asian exports to the US in Jun-Jul'25 to beat tariffs, but tariffs will alter patterns in 4Q2025, cutting export growth and reducing US disinflation. 
The rebound in US steel production (+4.6%YoY in Jun-Jul'25) and ISM manufacturing new orders suggests select American industries (metals, automobiles, electronics) will gain but downstream users will suffer steadily more. 


US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. </li>
<li>We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. 
We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?


Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as...</li>
<li>...market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, the 3-month uptrend (currently at ~6380), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059</li>
<li>Bullish Developments Continue: DJI and Russell 2000 Breakouts and Much More</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as...
...market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, the 3-month uptrend (currently at ~6380), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059
Bullish Developments Continue: DJI and Russell 2000 Breakouts and Much More


DJI and Russell 2000 Breaking Out; Staying Bullish; Bullish Developments Continue

<ul>
<li>With CPI inflation at 2.7%YoY in Jun-Jul'25, and PCE inflation at 2.6% in June, a belated rate cut is highly probable at the next FOMC meeting in Sep'25. </li>
<li>Declining oil prices (-9.5%YoY in Jul'25) were a major factor enabling headline inflation to stay well-contained, alongside mild M2 growth (just +4.7%YoY as of Jun'25). </li>
<li>Base effects will cease to be helpful after Oct'25, as oil prices had declined from Nov'24. Tariffs pushing headline PCE inflation toward 3%YoY will preclude further rate cuts.  </li>
</ul>


With CPI inflation at 2.7%YoY in Jun-Jul'25, and PCE inflation at 2.6% in June, a belated rate cut is highly probable at the next FOMC meeting in Sep'25. 
Declining oil prices (-9.5%YoY in Jul'25) were a major factor enabling headline inflation to stay well-contained, alongside mild M2 growth (just +4.7%YoY as of Jun'25). 
Base effects will cease to be helpful after Oct'25, as oil prices had declined from Nov'24. Tariffs pushing headline PCE inflation toward 3%YoY will preclude further rate cuts.  


US: Rate Cut Imminent at Last, but Chances of More Are Slim as Oil's Benefits Fade

<ul>
<li>Core PCE and CPI inflation remained at 4-year lows in Apr-May'25 despite Trump's tariffs, although June core CPI inflation crept up MoM after further tariff hikes (on steel and aluminium).</li>
<li>M2 growth of just 5.2%YoY (May'25) is a restraining factor on inflation. However, tariff hikes have been much higher than we expected, with most trading partners failing to negotiate reductions. </li>
<li>For consistency with 2024 cuts, the FOMC likely will cut rates this month. But the tariff hikes on most trading partners will push core inflation toward 3%, disallowing further cuts. </li>
</ul>


Core PCE and CPI inflation remained at 4-year lows in Apr-May'25 despite Trump's tariffs, although June core CPI inflation crept up MoM after further tariff hikes (on steel and aluminium).
M2 growth of just 5.2%YoY (May'25) is a restraining factor on inflation. However, tariff hikes have been much higher than we expected, with most trading partners failing to negotiate reductions. 
For consistency with 2024 cuts, the FOMC likely will cut rates this month. But the tariff hikes on most trading partners will push core inflation toward 3%, disallowing further cuts. 


US: Subdued Inflation to Oblige a Reluctant Fed to Cut This Month, but No More in '25

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Downgrading Staples $XLP to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading While Prior Leaders Consolidate; $SMH Above $280, 10-yr Treasury yield below key...

Vermilion Research

DJI and Russell 2000 Breaking Out; Staying Bullish; Bullish Developments Continue

$DJI and Russell 2000 $IWM Breaking Out; Staying Bullish $SPX $QQQ; Bullish Developments Continue: DJI, IWM, $RSP Breakouts, RS on $XLP at new...

Vermilion Research

US: Rate Cut Imminent at Last, but Chances of More Are Slim as Oil's Benefits Fade

Inflation likely to prompt rate cut in Sep'25 as declining oil prices and mild M2 growth contain headline inflation. Positive YoY oil inflation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Subdued Inflation to Oblige a Reluctant Fed to Cut This Month, but No More in '25

Despite Trump's tariffs, inflation remained low in Apr-May'25, so a July rate cut is likely. But tariffs on most trade partners from Aug'25 (worse...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

​China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Downgrading Staples $XLP to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading While Prior Leaders Consolidate; $SMH Above $280, 10-yr Treasury yield below key...

Vermilion Research

DJI and Russell 2000 Breaking Out; Staying Bullish; Bullish Developments Continue

$DJI and Russell 2000 $IWM Breaking Out; Staying Bullish $SPX $QQQ; Bullish Developments Continue: DJI, IWM, $RSP Breakouts, RS on $XLP at new...

Vermilion Research

US: Rate Cut Imminent at Last, but Chances of More Are Slim as Oil's Benefits Fade

​Inflation likely to prompt rate cut in Sep'25 as declining oil prices and mild M2 growth contain headline inflation. Positive YoY oil inflation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Subdued Inflation to Oblige a Reluctant Fed to Cut This Month, but No More in '25

​Despite Trump's tariffs, inflation remained low in Apr-May'25, so a July rate cut is likely. But tariffs on most trade partners from Aug'25 (worse...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...

Inflation likely to prompt rate cut in Sep'25 as declining oil prices and mild M2 growth contain headline inflation. Positive YoY oil inflation...

Despite Trump's tariffs, inflation remained low in Apr-May'25, so a July rate cut is likely. But tariffs on most trade partners from Aug'25 (worse...