Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

<ul>
<li>This chart draws a fascinating historical comparison between the behaviour of the stock market today with that seen 100 years ago around the time of the Spanish Influenza</li>
<li>It clearly shows that what we are seeing today has some sort of reflection of the past</li>
<li>The picture should be taken as a warning sign that the weeks and possibly the months ahead are going to be difficult for the equity market.</li>
</ul>


This chart draws a fascinating historical comparison between the behaviour of the stock market today with that seen 100 years ago around the time of the Spanish Influenza
It clearly shows that what we are seeing today has some sort of reflection of the past
The picture should be taken as a warning sign that the weeks and possibly the months ahead are going to be difficult for the equity market.


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>Call for a US equity pullback into late November to find a foothold and bounce with a weaker cycle due into late December is on track.</li>
<li>SPX under shoot Monday with support at 4,540 to set up a reaction rally. DJI below 35,500 was our risk pivot.</li>
<li>Measure bounce into early to mid-December secondary cycle peak for a weaker late December phase. Shorts are focused in DJI, IBEX, HSI, NKY, Nifty and EEM.</li>
</ul>


Call for a US equity pullback into late November to find a foothold and bounce with a weaker cycle due into late December is on track.
SPX under shoot Monday with support at 4,540 to set up a reaction rally. DJI below 35,500 was our risk pivot.
Measure bounce into early to mid-December secondary cycle peak for a weaker late December phase. Shorts are focused in DJI, IBEX, HSI, NKY, Nifty and EEM.


Dow Jones has been the underperformer and weak link to short for a break below 35k trendline support that would open up a September pullback cycle for US markets. More importantly it is a signal to step up shorts weak groups in Europe and Asia.Crack of 35,000 trendline support is meaningful. RSI produced an early short signal below noted support (price break below 35,300).Big underperform vs the SPX makes this the weak link to short for a September pullback cycle.

Dow Jones has been the underperformer and weak link to short for a break below 35k trendline support that would open up a September pullback cycle for US markets. More importantly it is a signal to step up shorts weak groups in Europe and Asia.Crack of 35,000 trendline support is meaningful. RSI produced an early short signal below noted support (price break below 35,300).Big underperform vs the SPX makes this the weak link to short for a September pullback cycle.

DJI Weak Link to Short on Trendline Break

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

In May, the Nikkei released a market consultation on proposed changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> covering capping the weight of new constituents in the index at 1% by using a Price Adjustment Factor, limiting the number of index changes at a periodic review to 3, and changing the index universe from stocks listed on TSE's 1st section to stocks that are listed on the Prime Market (post the reorganisation). Most of the proposed changes were subsequently approved.This is the first <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rebalance after the market consultation that tweaked things around. The tweaks could ensure the inclusion of stocks that were historically not included in the index due to their high stock price, though the impact will be much smaller since their weight in the index will not exceed 1%.At the upcoming rebalance, we see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> being included in the index while there is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a> being included.Potential deletion candidates are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sky-perfect-jsat-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14097:1" rel="noopener">Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruha-nichiro-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20640:1" rel="noopener">Maruha Nichiro (1333 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3439:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Metals (5541 JP)</a>.There will be quite a large impact from passive trading on a few names.The changes will be announced early September and will be implemented at the close of trading on 30 September.

In May, the Nikkei released a market consultation on proposed changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) covering capping the weight of new constituents in the index at 1% by using a Price Adjustment Factor, limiting the number of index changes at a periodic review to 3, and changing the index universe from stocks listed on TSE's 1st section to stocks that are listed on the Prime Market (post the reorganisation). Most of the proposed changes were subsequently approved.This is the first Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rebalance after the market consultation that tweaked things around. The tweaks could ensure the inclusion of stocks that were historically not included in the index due to their high stock price, though the impact will be much smaller since their weight in the index will not exceed 1%.At the upcoming rebalance, we see a high probability of Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) being included in the index while there is a lower probability of Oriental Land (4661 JP) and Orix Corp (8591 JP) being included.Potential deletion candidates are Toho Zinc (5707 JP), Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP), Maruha Nichiro (1333 JP) and Pacific Metals (5541 JP).There will be quite a large impact from passive trading on a few names.The changes will be announced early September and will be implemented at the close of trading on 30 September.

Nikkei225 Index Rebalance Preview: Perennial Favourites Could Be In

Pay attention to rotation currents ahead of a key tactical peak in the US cycle into late July. Our cycle work calls for an SPX and NDX top late this week ahead of a pullback attempt to test pivotal trendline supports.NDX is expected to lose steam as the DJI attempts a breakout and the rotation to monitor that will lift breadth this week.The most important pivot for the global cycle is the NDX price trendline support that currently runs near 14,650 and rises into next week. A clear bull/bear pivot line.Cycle - SPX and NDX moving into a frothy tactical top zone. July 19 onwards favors a weaker seasonal cycle starting to unfold.

Pay attention to rotation currents ahead of a key tactical peak in the US cycle into late July. Our cycle work calls for an SPX and NDX top late this week ahead of a pullback attempt to test pivotal trendline supports.NDX is expected to lose steam as the DJI attempts a breakout and the rotation to monitor that will lift breadth this week.The most important pivot for the global cycle is the NDX price trendline support that currently runs near 14,650 and rises into next week. A clear bull/bear pivot line.Cycle - SPX and NDX moving into a frothy tactical top zone. July 19 onwards favors a weaker seasonal cycle starting to unfold.

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones - The Spooky Chart

An almost unimaginable similarity in the behaviour of markets with 100 years ago is being shown on this chart of the Dow Jones. It warn us to be...

Shyam Devani

US Plunge Targets

Call for a US equity pullback into late November to find a foothold and bounce with a weaker cycle due into late December is on track.

Thomas Schroeder

DJI Weak Link to Short on Trendline Break

Dow Jones has been the underperformer and weak link to short for a break below 35k trendline support to induce a pullback cycle and signal to step...

Thomas Schroeder

Nikkei225 Index Rebalance Preview: Perennial Favourites Could Be In

Nintendo could be included in the NKY at the upcoming rebalance though the impact will not be very large. The new methodology could also result in...

Brian Freitas

DJI Rotation as Tech Tops

NDX is touted to lose steam as the DJI attempts a rotation breakout. Our cycle work warns of an SPX and NDX top late this week ahead of a pullback...

Thomas Schroeder