Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies

Uzabase

Specialising in Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies with a focus on rigorous, but targeted quantitative analysis to temper evaluations of company strategy, potential and vision. At Uzabase, our team of analysts provides coverage of industry dynamics with a local Asian flavour on Speeda, our financial information platform. Going forward we are aiming to channel our focus toward thematic research on emerging industries and company research.

Equity Bottom-Up

In our last note on Dowa Holdings on 17 Feb we turned cautious due to the rapid run up in the price since our first buy recommendation (+35% in 5 months), probable conservative guidance, weakening zinc TCs and a lack of recovery in the electronic materials segment. Since then the share price has dropped 14% despite Topix and Nikkei only declining 1% and we feel that the negative catalysts may now be close to priced in.We turn more bullish once again, partly due to valuation, but mostly as a…

In our last note on Dowa Holdings on 17 Feb we turned cautious due to the rapid run up in the price since our first buy recommendation (+35% in 5 months), probable conservative guidance, weakening zinc TCs and a lack of recovery in the electronic materials segment. Since then the share price has dropped 14% despite Topix and Nikkei only declining 1% and we feel that the negative catalysts may now be close to priced in.We turn more bullish once again, partly due to valuation, but mostly as a…

Zinc Prospects and Share Price Fall Make Dowa a Buy Again

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

We all know that Analysts rarely put a lot of effort into FY2 numbers until close to the end of FY1. If you did not know that please contact me I can prove it. So if strong 3Q and YTD numbers influence the "new" FY1 EPS forecast how will that translate into FY1 PE and which names should we be looking at.We make the assumption that recent strong earnings numbers translate into a 15% increase in the current place-holder FY2 estimate. We then screened on the following criteria to identify names…

We all know that Analysts rarely put a lot of effort into FY2 numbers until close to the end of FY1. If you did not know that please contact me I can prove it. So if strong 3Q and YTD numbers influence the "new" FY1 EPS forecast how will that translate into FY1 PE and which names should we be looking at.We make the assumption that recent strong earnings numbers translate into a 15% increase in the current place-holder FY2 estimate. We then screened on the following criteria to identify names…

New FY1 PEs Could Be Even Lower Given Strong YTD Numbers in Japan......

We visited the company and came away believing that results for this year should be reasonably strong, but that a lack of visibility into next FY could lead the company to offer conservative guidance. Since our initial bullish call, the stock is up 35%, outperforming Topix by 17%. We remain bullish and feel there is 20-30% upside remaining in the stock. However, with the stock doubling since its low in Jun 2016, our expectation for conservative guidance, extremely weak spot treatment charges for…

We visited the company and came away believing that results for this year should be reasonably strong, but that a lack of visibility into next FY could lead the company to offer conservative guidance. Since our initial bullish call, the stock is up 35%, outperforming Topix by 17%. We remain bullish and feel there is 20-30% upside remaining in the stock. However, with the stock doubling since its low in Jun 2016, our expectation for conservative guidance, extremely weak spot treatment charges for…

Dowa Holdings: Lull in Share Price Performance Likely but We Expect Strong FY2018 on Zinc Price/JPY

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14050" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14050:1">Dowa Holdings Co Ltd (5714 JP)</a> reported 3Q results after the Tokyo close with strong results in its Metal Processing segment in particular - a result of strong demand from overseas automakers and smartphone manufacturers in East Asia. However, results in its Smelting segment were poor due to refurbishments of smelters resulting in reduced volumes, Yen strength up to the US elections and losses on derivative contracts. On confirmation of the end of these one-off costs we would reaffirm our…

Dowa Holdings Co Ltd (5714 JP) reported 3Q results after the Tokyo close with strong results in its Metal Processing segment in particular - a result of strong demand from overseas automakers and smartphone manufacturers in East Asia. However, results in its Smelting segment were poor due to refurbishments of smelters resulting in reduced volumes, Yen strength up to the US elections and losses on derivative contracts. On confirmation of the end of these one-off costs we would reaffirm our…

Dowa Holdings 3Q Results Mixed. Outlook Strong Given One-Offs

On Fri Oct 14 Dowa Holdings revised up its 1H OP estimate by 17.4%, to JPY13.5bn.We believe this momentum is positive and note that while a strong yen was a drag, the smelting division outperformed due to higher than expected metal prices (as intimated in our previous note).The company has not revised up full year forecasts but may do so at the 1H announcement (we would guess that they do not revise).We note that our modeled forecasts called for JPY14.6bn in 1H OP (8% above the revised…

On Fri Oct 14 Dowa Holdings revised up its 1H OP estimate by 17.4%, to JPY13.5bn.We believe this momentum is positive and note that while a strong yen was a drag, the smelting division outperformed due to higher than expected metal prices (as intimated in our previous note).The company has not revised up full year forecasts but may do so at the 1H announcement (we would guess that they do not revise).We note that our modeled forecasts called for JPY14.6bn in 1H OP (8% above the revised…

Dowa Holdings 1H Estimates Revised Up 17.4%. Our Attached Segmental Model Suggests Further Upside.

Japan

DOWA HOLDINGS, CO., LTD. mines, refines, smelts, and produces various metalrelated products.  The Company's main products include minerals, precious metals, battery materials, semiconductor and superconductivity materials, magnetic materials, and optical devices.

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Dowa Holdings (5714 JP)

New FY1 PEs Could Be Even Lower Given Strong YTD Numbers in Japan......

We all know that Analysts rarely put a lot of effort into FY2 numbers until close to the end of FY1. If you did not know that please contact me I...

Custom Products Group

Dowa Holdings 3Q Results Mixed. Outlook Strong Given One-Offs

Dowa Holdings Co Ltd (5714 JP) reported 3Q results after the Tokyo close with strong results in its Metal Processing segment in particular - a...

Mio Kato

Dowa Holdings 1H Estimates Revised Up 17.4%. Our Attached Segmental Model Suggests Further Upside.

On Fri Oct 14 Dowa Holdings revised up its 1H OP estimate by 17.4%, to JPY13.5bn.We believe this momentum is positive and note that while a strong...

Mio Kato

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Zinc Prospects and Share Price Fall Make Dowa a Buy Again

In our last note on Dowa Holdings on 17 Feb we turned cautious due to the rapid run up in the price since our first buy recommendation (+35% in 5...

Mio Kato

New FY1 PEs Could Be Even Lower Given Strong YTD Numbers in Japan......

We all know that Analysts rarely put a lot of effort into FY2 numbers until close to the end of FY1. If you did not know that please contact me I...

Custom Products Group

Dowa Holdings: Lull in Share Price Performance Likely but We Expect Strong FY2018 on Zinc Price/JPY

We visited the company and came away believing that results for this year should be reasonably strong, but that a lack of visibility into next FY...

Mio Kato

Dowa Holdings 3Q Results Mixed. Outlook Strong Given One-Offs

Dowa Holdings Co Ltd (5714 JP) reported 3Q results after the Tokyo close with strong results in its Metal Processing segment in particular - a...

Mio Kato

Dowa Holdings 1H Estimates Revised Up 17.4%. Our Attached Segmental Model Suggests Further Upside.

On Fri Oct 14 Dowa Holdings revised up its 1H OP estimate by 17.4%, to JPY13.5bn.We believe this momentum is positive and note that while a strong...

Mio Kato