Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

<ul>
<li>Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> looked like a classic deletion, not addition.</li>
<li>93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.</li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.</li>
</ul>


Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. Shift Inc (3697 JP) looked like a classic deletion, not addition.
93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.


[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

<ul>
<li>Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-sep25-review-shift-3697-in-citizen-watch-7762-out-kokusai-misses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200727" rel="noopener">[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses</a>. </li>
<li>That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. </li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!</li>
</ul>


Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses. 
That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. 
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

<ul>
<li>The five year data period for the September 2025 Nikkei 225 rebalance is now over (as of 31 July). First obvious news? No <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> capping.</li>
<li>That was obvious a couple months ago, and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> buying to come has been known for five months.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> Offering last month makes it more likely an ADD than it was in June (when it didn't replace NTT Data), but not a done deal.</li>
</ul>


The five year data period for the September 2025 Nikkei 225 rebalance is now over (as of 31 July). First obvious news? No Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping.
That was obvious a couple months ago, and the BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) buying to come has been known for five months.
The Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Offering last month makes it more likely an ADD than it was in June (when it didn't replace NTT Data), but not a done deal.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings

<ul>
<li>I published a Sep25 Nikkei 225 prediction list last Wednesday. By Friday, we had a new paradigm due to an ad hoc change. That new paradigm informs the September selection. </li>
<li>As it is, I expect one (1) ADD (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a>) and one (1) DELETE (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokuyama-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14781:1" rel="noopener">Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)</a>) - a prediction which change on a corporate announcement.</li>
<li>My confidence on the ADD is a little lower due to the implications of the choice of Rohm. And the interesting ECM trade for September remains Sony Financial. </li>
</ul>


I published a Sep25 Nikkei 225 prediction list last Wednesday. By Friday, we had a new paradigm due to an ad hoc change. That new paradigm informs the September selection. 
As it is, I expect one (1) ADD (Shift Inc (3697 JP)) and one (1) DELETE (Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)) - a prediction which change on a corporate announcement.
My confidence on the ADD is a little lower due to the implications of the choice of Rohm. And the interesting ECM trade for September remains Sony Financial. 


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL, Less Certain Than Before

<ul>
<li>The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.</li>
<li>For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.</li>
<li>For now, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> capping is off, but there's an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.</li>
</ul>


The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there's an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

Japan

DOWA HOLDINGS, CO., LTD. mines, refines, smelts, and produces various metalrelated products.  The Company's main products include minerals, precious metals, battery materials, semiconductor and superconductivity materials, magnetic materials, and optical devices.

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Dowa Holdings (5714 JP)

[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

The Sep 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal was not a "right-way" event for the ADD (Shift (3697)). The March 2026 rebal looks also to be a 1 IN 1 OUT affair,...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

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Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings

The Nikkei 225 rebalance for September 2025 is now finalised as regards liquidity data and capping. But we don't know what sensitivity the index...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL, Less Certain Than Before

The early Nikkei 225 replacement action for NTT Data introduced a new paradigm for cash takeovers and set a limit for float. That makes the Sep...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

The Nikkei 225 Sep rebal has just 0.6% of its data window left. Rankings are basically fixed. Fastie capping depends on next 6wks. I see 1 Add/Del;...

Travis Lundy

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