IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/downer-edi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12350:1" rel="noopener">Downer EDI Ltd (DOW AU)</a> shares are battered on the back of two quick successive profit warnings, accounting restatements and dividend cuts.</li>
<li>A worrying deterioration in cash generation and an increase in leverage add to the nervousness. Management flux adds to the uncertainty and the chance of a third profit warning.</li>
<li>While Downer’s multiples are in line with peers, momentum is against it and there are question marks if the earnings have been flattered by the misuse of exceptional items.</li>
</ul>



Downer EDI Ltd (DOW AU) shares are battered on the back of two quick successive profit warnings, accounting restatements and dividend cuts.
A worrying deterioration in cash generation and an increase in leverage add to the nervousness. Management flux adds to the uncertainty and the chance of a third profit warning.
While Downer’s multiples are in line with peers, momentum is against it and there are question marks if the earnings have been flattered by the misuse of exceptional items.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<li>As per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/downer-edi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12350:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Downer (DOW AU)</strong></a>'s website: "<em>Our purpose is to create and sustain the modern environment by building trusted relationships with our customers</em>". They should extend that trust to shareholders.</li>
<li>Having already announced accounting irregularities back in December, Downer further cut profit forecasts - and interim dividend - this week. After shares cratered 24%, Downer's CFO promptly tendered his resignation.</li>
<li>Allan Grey, which holds 6% in Downer, reckons the company has been inept and that a "culture reset" was in order. </li>
</ul>


As per Downer (DOW AU)'s website: "Our purpose is to create and sustain the modern environment by building trusted relationships with our customers". They should extend that trust to shareholders.
Having already announced accounting irregularities back in December, Downer further cut profit forecasts - and interim dividend - this week. After shares cratered 24%, Downer's CFO promptly tendered his resignation.
Allan Grey, which holds 6% in Downer, reckons the company has been inept and that a "culture reset" was in order. 


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

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<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 17th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Suncorp, Corporate Travel, Incitec Pivot, Bhp, Endeavour.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 17th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Suncorp, Corporate Travel, Incitec Pivot, Bhp, Endeavour.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 17th): Suncorp, Corporate Travel, Incitec Pivot, BHP, Endeavour

Travis Lundy

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monadelphous-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:553:1" rel="noopener">Monadelphous (MND AU)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P ASX 200 Index on 16 December 2022.</li>
<li>This is not a surprise. It has been the lead contender for a December ADD slot since the day after the September rebalance was completed (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-p-asx-quiddity-leaderboard-dec-22-top-ranked-asx200-adds-look-interesting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>).</li>
<li>There is a fair bit of volume to buy, and there are pair trades to do.</li>
</ul>



Monadelphous (MND AU) will be added to the S&amp;P ASX 200 Index on 16 December 2022.
This is not a surprise. It has been the lead contender for a December ADD slot since the day after the September rebalance was completed (see here).
There is a fair bit of volume to buy, and there are pair trades to do.


Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD - There's a Trade Here

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hochtief-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21652:1" rel="noopener">Hochtief AG (HOT GR)</a> announced an unconditional off-market takeover offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimic-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20030:1" rel="noopener">CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU)</a> at A$22.00 cash per share, a 33.4% premium to the last close price. </li>
<li>The offer’s implied forward EV/EBITDA multiple is at a discount to peer multiples. However, the offer is attractive compared to historical and transaction multiples.  </li>
<li>The offer presents a reasonable exit for minorities tired of the weak share price due to years of troubled contracts.</li>
</ul>



Hochtief AG (HOT GR) announced an unconditional off-market takeover offer for CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU) at A$22.00 cash per share, a 33.4% premium to the last close price. 
The offer’s implied forward EV/EBITDA multiple is at a discount to peer multiples. However, the offer is attractive compared to historical and transaction multiples.  
The offer presents a reasonable exit for minorities tired of the weak share price due to years of troubled contracts.


CIMIC in an Off-Market Takeover Bid by Hochtief

Australia

Downer EDI Limited provides engineering and infrastructure management services to the public and private rail, road, power, telecommunications, mining and resources sectors in Australia, New Zealand, Asia and the Pacific.  Downer provides rolling stock services, drilling services for the exploration industry, mine planning and management services and highway maintenance.

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Downer EDI Ltd (DOW AU)

Downer EDI (DOW AU): Down or Out

While Downer’s multiples are in line with peers, momentum is against it and there are question marks if the earnings have been flattered by the...

Arun George

Downer EDI: In Need Of A "Culture Reset"

Prior to the accounting issue, shares were trading at 12.4x the midpoint of the NPATA guidance. They are now at 11.8x the most recent midpoint...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 17th): Suncorp, Corporate Travel, Incitec Pivot, BHP, Endeavour

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Suncorp, Corporate Travel, Incitec Pivot, Bhp,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD - There's a Trade Here

Mining services company Monadelphous (MND AU) is the S&P ASX 200 ADD, as expected. There should be 4.8mm shares to buy - 12+ days of ADV. There's a...

Travis Lundy

CIMIC in an Off-Market Takeover Bid by Hochtief

Hochtief announced an unconditional off-market takeover offer at A$22 cash per share, a 33.4% premium to the last close. The offer presents a...

Arun George

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