Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For both carriers, rates and OP margins surged in H224, but have fallen ever since then</li>
<li>Though it's a distinct market, Intra-Asia conditions are impacted by deep-sea conditions</li>
<li>TS Lines' strong share outperformance vs market leader Wan Hai Lines is not justified</li>
</ul>


For both carriers, rates and OP margins surged in H224, but have fallen ever since then
Though it's a distinct market, Intra-Asia conditions are impacted by deep-sea conditions
TS Lines' strong share outperformance vs market leader Wan Hai Lines is not justified


Intra-Asia Container Carriers Wan Hai Lines, TS Lines Also Feeling the Pain of Lower Freight Rates

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Spot <em>freight rates</em> are fading again in mid-April, despite ongoing conflict in Strait of Hormuz</li>
<li>Spot <em>fuel prices</em> remain high and we believe Q126 OP margins will show sharp compression</li>
<li>We expect shares in container segment to give back all of March's gains, and then some</li>
</ul>


Spot freight rates are fading again in mid-April, despite ongoing conflict in Strait of Hormuz
Spot fuel prices remain high and we believe Q126 OP margins will show sharp compression
We expect shares in container segment to give back all of March's gains, and then some


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Price Weak, April Spot Rates, Too | Fuel Starting to Bite

<ul>
<li>Deep-Sea container rates turned weaker again in Jan-Feb, likely obliterating carrier profits</li>
<li>Another round of US tariff uncertainty should dampen near-term NAM demand further</li>
<li>Excess supply, Suez re-opening, now US tariff chaos? SHORT deep-sea container carriers</li>
</ul>


Deep-Sea container rates turned weaker again in Jan-Feb, likely obliterating carrier profits
Another round of US tariff uncertainty should dampen near-term NAM demand further
Excess supply, Suez re-opening, now US tariff chaos? SHORT deep-sea container carriers


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Weak Price in Jan-Feb | Softer NAM Demand | Now US Tariff Mess

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Price momentum remains weak (our index -22%), spot rates down sharply in January</li>
<li>North American Pacific coast ports inbound volume down ~5% Y/Y in December</li>
<li>Testing the waters: carriers remain cautious about quick return to Suez Canal</li>
</ul>


Price momentum remains weak (our index -22%), spot rates down sharply in January
North American Pacific coast ports inbound volume down ~5% Y/Y in December
Testing the waters: carriers remain cautious about quick return to Suez Canal


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Spot Rates Weaker Ahead of LNY | Suez Canal Re-Opening Update

<ul>
<li>Weak price momentum and spot rates both improved somewhat in November-December</li>
<li>But we believe this improvement will quickly dissipate, due to still-poor end demand </li>
<li>We still see deep-sea container industry as entering a lengthy down-cycle; AVOID</li>
</ul>


Weak price momentum and spot rates both improved somewhat in November-December
But we believe this improvement will quickly dissipate, due to still-poor end demand 
We still see deep-sea container industry as entering a lengthy down-cycle; AVOID


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Recent Improvement in Price Likely to Dissipate Soon

United Arab Emirates

DP World Ltd is a global operator of container and marine terminals. The Company operates marine terminals across six continents, and generates its core revenues from handling cargo containers. DP World was founded in 1972, and operates out of its global headquarters in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

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DP World (DPW DU)

Intra-Asia Container Carriers Wan Hai Lines, TS Lines Also Feeling the Pain of Lower Freight Rates

Revenue and OP margins for Intra-Asia container carriers Wan Hai Lines and TS Lines surged in H224 but have fallen sharply since then. We expect...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Price Weak, April Spot Rates, Too | Fuel Starting to Bite

March price momentum remained weak, and now in mid-April spot rates are beginning to fall. Fuel costs have risen sharply, and Q1-Q2 carrier margins...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Weak Price in Jan-Feb | Softer NAM Demand | Now US Tariff Mess

January and February deep-sea container rates have softened noticeably, probably wiping out most carriers' profit margins altogether. Conditions...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Spot Rates Weaker Ahead of LNY | Suez Canal Re-Opening Update

Underlying supply-demand conditions for deep sea container carriers remain weak, with poor US consumer sentiment and rapid capacity growth. A Suez...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Recent Improvement in Price Likely to Dissipate Soon

Although price momentum improved in recent weeks, we believe profit margins and returns for deep-sea container carriers will continue to...

Tracking Traffic

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