New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>National sales down -0.1% seasonally adjusted month-on-month (previously -7.4%) and -2.9% yoy (previously -9.8%).</li><li>Construction of new housing was up +1.6% on the March quarter, the largest quarterly increase since December 2022.</li><li>Australian auction clearance rates have fallen to their lowest levels since the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting weaker buyer confidence and softer housing demand.</li></ul>

National sales down -0.1% seasonally adjusted month-on-month (previously -7.4%) and -2.9% yoy (previously -9.8%).Construction of new housing was up +1.6% on the March quarter, the largest quarterly increase since December 2022.Australian auction clearance rates have fallen to their lowest levels since the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting weaker buyer confidence and softer housing demand.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The NZ housing market lost a bit of momentum in March (REINZ): National sales up +1% on February numbers.</li><li>The Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) highlighted building as the most downbeat sector, with a net 28% surveyed expecting a deterioration in the general economic outlook over the coming months.</li><li>Industry experts warn that disruption to oil supply is driving sharp increases in energy-intensive building materials such as aluminium, steel, bricks, and plastics.</li></ul>

The NZ housing market lost a bit of momentum in March (REINZ): National sales up +1% on February numbers.The Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) highlighted building as the most downbeat sector, with a net 28% surveyed expecting a deterioration in the general economic outlook over the coming months.Industry experts warn that disruption to oil supply is driving sharp increases in energy-intensive building materials such as aluminium, steel, bricks, and plastics.

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The retail day-trading crowd is losing interest in the stock market, which has been in an extended 5-month losing streak.  The buy-the-dip mentality is waning.</li>
<li>The housing market is entering another slowdown, with prices stagnant for 5 years, mortgage rates surging, and construction costs rising further due to the war in Iran.</li>
<li>The war is straining American households' financial buffers built on rising home prices and post-COVID stock market gains.  Retail investor sentiment has turned largely negative during this market downturn.</li>
</ul>


The retail day-trading crowd is losing interest in the stock market, which has been in an extended 5-month losing streak.  The buy-the-dip mentality is waning.
The housing market is entering another slowdown, with prices stagnant for 5 years, mortgage rates surging, and construction costs rising further due to the war in Iran.
The war is straining American households' financial buffers built on rising home prices and post-COVID stock market gains.  Retail investor sentiment has turned largely negative during this market downturn.


CHARTING COURSE: Robinhood Steals from the Poor, and Housing Provides No Shelter (3/31/26)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as...</li>
<li>...market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, the 3-month uptrend (currently at ~6380), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059</li>
<li>Bullish Developments Continue: DJI and Russell 2000 Breakouts and Much More</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as...
...market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, the 3-month uptrend (currently at ~6380), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059
Bullish Developments Continue: DJI and Russell 2000 Breakouts and Much More


DJI and Russell 2000 Breaking Out; Staying Bullish; Bullish Developments Continue

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>A bottom-up driven scan of stock charts shows over 29 stocks with bullish technical patterns consisting of uptrends or breakouts from multi-month bases with strong potential upsides.</li>
<li>Bullish patterns are broadly based, primarily concentrated in technology and cyclicals, which argue for a continuation of the AI-related bull and an economic rebound.</li>
<li>This bottom-up analysis also pointed to bullish macro conclusions about the economy.</li>
</ul>


A bottom-up driven scan of stock charts shows over 29 stocks with bullish technical patterns consisting of uptrends or breakouts from multi-month bases with strong potential upsides.
Bullish patterns are broadly based, primarily concentrated in technology and cyclicals, which argue for a continuation of the AI-related bull and an economic rebound.
This bottom-up analysis also pointed to bullish macro conclusions about the economy.


United States

D.R. Horton, Inc. constructs and sells single-family homes designed primarily for the entry-level and move-up markets.  The Company operates in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Southwest, and Western regions of the United States. D.R. Horton also, through its financial services operations, provide mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers.

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Dr Horton Inc (DHI US)

Building News Wrap

National sales down -0.1% seasonally adjusted month-on-month (previously -7.4%) and -2.9% yoy (previously -9.8%). Construction of new housing was...

Forsyth Barr

Building News Wrap

The NZ housing market lost a bit of momentum in March (REINZ): National sales up +1% on February numbers. The Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion...

Forsyth Barr

CHARTING COURSE: Robinhood Steals from the Poor, and Housing Provides No Shelter (3/31/26)

The retail day-trading crowd is losing interest in the stock market amid an extended 5-month losing streak. The buy-the-dip mentality is waning.

David Mudd

DJI and Russell 2000 Breaking Out; Staying Bullish; Bullish Developments Continue

$DJI and Russell 2000 $IWM Breaking Out; Staying Bullish $SPX $QQQ; Bullish Developments Continue: DJI, IWM, $RSP Breakouts, RS on $XLP at new...

Vermilion Research

29 Reasons to Be Bullish

A bottom-up scan of stock charts shows over 29 stocks with bullish technical patterns consisting of uptrends or breakouts from multi-month bases...

Cam Hui

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