Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

A combination of, optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks, and Fed Chairman Powell’s comments have led to a continuation of the oversold bounce which began on 12/26, and the S&amp;P 500 is now trading just below the 12/19 pre-Fed rate hike area. ~2,350 on the S&amp;P 500 remains the support level to monitor. A retest of this low remains the most likely scenario, though it is far from a guarantee due to the potential for a “V” reversal. We examine an array of factors leading to our intact cautious outlook, and highlight attractive set-ups within Consumer Discretionary and Health Care Sectors.

A combination of, optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks, and Fed Chairman Powell’s comments have led to a continuation of the oversold bounce which began on 12/26, and the S&amp;P 500 is now trading just below the 12/19 pre-Fed rate hike area. ~2,350 on the S&amp;P 500 remains the support level to monitor. A retest of this low remains the most likely scenario, though it is far from a guarantee due to the potential for a “V” reversal. We examine an array of factors leading to our intact cautious outlook, and highlight attractive set-ups within Consumer Discretionary and Health Care Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Oversold Rally Continues

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Macroeconomics

Recent US property data underscored how tight the market is both in price and in labor terms. There is just not much for sale, and construction worker shortage stories have been back for at least 2 years, if not longer.I took this opportunity to reduce most of the exposure in US West property I took on in 2010-12, and closed on one property last week and one last month.One home last month, I was glad to separate from, having had so many unexpected experiences with repairs and poor contracting…

Recent US property data underscored how tight the market is both in price and in labor terms. There is just not much for sale, and construction worker shortage stories have been back for at least 2 years, if not longer.I took this opportunity to reduce most of the exposure in US West property I took on in 2010-12, and closed on one property last week and one last month.One home last month, I was glad to separate from, having had so many unexpected experiences with repairs and poor contracting…

Postcard Backstory: How Distorted Are Housing Data (Sale Last Week. Pictures, Warts and Data…)

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Relations between the US and China could (and likely will) deteriorate in the medium-term for any of the three following reasons: a) increased friction over US-China trade issues; b) more intemperate words or actions from the new US administration regarding Taiwan's political status; c) China more aggressively pursuing various territorial claims in the region (South China Sea, Senkaku Islands). One likely victim of rising tensions between the US and China is tourism between the two countries…

Relations between the US and China could (and likely will) deteriorate in the medium-term for any of the three following reasons: a) increased friction over US-China trade issues; b) more intemperate words or actions from the new US administration regarding Taiwan's political status; c) China more aggressively pursuing various territorial claims in the region (South China Sea, Senkaku Islands). One likely victim of rising tensions between the US and China is tourism between the two countries…

Rising US-China Tensions Will Hurt Tourism; Who Stands to Lose (And to Gain) The Most?

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

All Hail Caesar (Trump)! I still remember the time when Obama was elected President. Everyone was celebrating. Japan mentioned they had one city named Obama, and Indonesia was touting how he spent his childhood years there. Of course, Trump is anything but conventional, and neither was his inauguration. Jen here was watching the TV, and mentioned that there were protests in Mexico and Germany about his rise to power...hardly the way to welcome the world's most powerful man. At least, the people…

All Hail Caesar (Trump)! I still remember the time when Obama was elected President. Everyone was celebrating. Japan mentioned they had one city named Obama, and Indonesia was touting how he spent his childhood years there. Of course, Trump is anything but conventional, and neither was his inauguration. Jen here was watching the TV, and mentioned that there were protests in Mexico and Germany about his rise to power...hardly the way to welcome the world's most powerful man. At least, the people…

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

<ul>
<li>GM and Shanghai Auto fined Rmb201mn for fixing prices on certain car models.</li>
<li>The fine was set at 4% of the models in question, the law allows for a 1-10% penalty.</li>
<li>The fine is small at 1.3% of profits and levied by the Shanghai government.</li>
<li>Shanghai Auto (SAIC) is the JV partner for GM in China.</li>
<li>This probe began in 2014 though investigations began in 2011 upon receiving auto dealer complaints.</li>
<li>Price fixing is a practice common by foreign automakers in China.</li>
<li>
Audi and Chrysler were fined for price fixing…</li>
</ul>


GM and Shanghai Auto fined Rmb201mn for fixing prices on certain car models.
The fine was set at 4% of the models in question, the law allows for a 1-10% penalty.
The fine is small at 1.3% of profits and levied by the Shanghai government.
Shanghai Auto (SAIC) is the JV partner for GM in China.
This probe began in 2014 though investigations began in 2011 upon receiving auto dealer complaints.
Price fixing is a practice common by foreign automakers in China.

Audi and Chrysler were fined for price fixing…


United States

D.R. Horton, Inc. constructs and sells single-family homes designed primarily for the entry-level and move-up markets.  The Company operates in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Southwest, and Western regions of the United States. D.R. Horton also, through its financial services operations, provide mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers.

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Dr Horton Inc (DHI US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Oversold Rally Continues

A combination of, optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks, and Fed Chairman Powell’s comments have led to a continuation of the oversold bounce...

Vermilion Research

Postcard Backstory: How Distorted Are Housing Data (Sale Last Week. Pictures, Warts and Data…)

Recent US property data underscored how tight the market is both in price and in labor terms. There is just not much for sale, and construction...

Charles De Trenck

Rising US-China Tensions Will Hurt Tourism; Who Stands to Lose (And to Gain) The Most?

Relations between the US and China could (and likely will) deteriorate in the medium-term for any of the three following reasons: a) increased...

Daniel Hellberg

Geopolitics, Trump, & Thailand

All Hail Caesar (Trump)! I still remember the time when Obama was elected President. Everyone was celebrating. Japan mentioned they had one city...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

GM Fined for Price Fixing in China

GM and Shanghai Auto fined Rmb201mn for fixing prices on certain car models. The fine was set at 4% of the models in question, the law allows for...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)