European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 47.3%; GBL, 34.8%; Heineken Holdings 21.6%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 17.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 34.9%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.5%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Porsche SE, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market.
Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 47.3%; GBL, 34.8%; Heineken Holdings 21.6%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 17.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 34.9%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.5%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Porsche SE, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Last week we had the implementation of the first two tranches of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rebalance with the third tranche to be implemented at the close on Monday.</li>
<li>Thursday saw the NIFTY indices implementation while Friday marked the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices.</li>
<li>There were large inflows to China, Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong ETFs during the week while there were some outflows from Japan.</li>
</ul>


Last week we had the implementation of the first two tranches of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rebalance with the third tranche to be implemented at the close on Monday.
Thursday saw the NIFTY indices implementation while Friday marked the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices.
There were large inflows to China, Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong ETFs during the week while there were some outflows from Japan.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, China A50, SET50, Bilibili, Leapmotor, Onewo, CALB

<ul>
<li>Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for its EV, the Porsches &amp; Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG and there'll be a c.€19.05 extraordinary dividend for Volkswagen's shareholders. </li>
<li>A €75 billion valuation implies 7.7x EV/2023e EBITDA and 13.9x Fwd 2023e P/E, a discount to Ferrari's 19.3x EV/2023 EBITDA of 20.2x and 32.3x Fwd 2023e P/E. </li>
<li>The shares have potential to race towards Ferrari's multiples. Also, in the medium term, the discount to NAV of Porsche SE (currently 34.2%) should tighten.</li>
</ul>


Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for its EV, the Porsches &amp; Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG and there'll be a c.€19.05 extraordinary dividend for Volkswagen's shareholders. 
A €75 billion valuation implies 7.7x EV/2023e EBITDA and 13.9x Fwd 2023e P/E, a discount to Ferrari's 19.3x EV/2023 EBITDA of 20.2x and 32.3x Fwd 2023e P/E. 
The shares have potential to race towards Ferrari's multiples. Also, in the medium term, the discount to NAV of Porsche SE (currently 34.2%) should tighten.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>WCP starts trading on its IPO tomorrow (30 September) in Korea. Even at the lower share price of 60,000 won, we continue to have a Negative View of WCP. </li>
<li>We have updated our valuation on WCP taking into account the latest prices and valuation multiples of the comps as of 29 September. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation of WCP is market cap of 1.8 trillion won or target price of 51,973 won, which is 13% lower than the IPO price of 60,000 won.</li>
</ul>


WCP starts trading on its IPO tomorrow (30 September) in Korea. Even at the lower share price of 60,000 won, we continue to have a Negative View of WCP. 
We have updated our valuation on WCP taking into account the latest prices and valuation multiples of the comps as of 29 September. 
Our base case valuation of WCP is market cap of 1.8 trillion won or target price of 51,973 won, which is 13% lower than the IPO price of 60,000 won.


Trading Strategy for WCP Post Lowered IPO Price

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the first day trading strategy of CALB (3931 HK) amid market turmoil.</li>
<li>CALB priced its IPO at HK$38 per share, which is at the low end of the IPO price range. CALB raised US$1.3 billion in this IPO. </li>
<li>Unlike recent disappointing IPOs for Leapmotor and Onewo, we believe CALB's IPO could perform better in its IPO debut. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the first day trading strategy of CALB (3931 HK) amid market turmoil.
CALB priced its IPO at HK$38 per share, which is at the low end of the IPO price range. CALB raised US$1.3 billion in this IPO. 
Unlike recent disappointing IPOs for Leapmotor and Onewo, we believe CALB's IPO could perform better in its IPO debut. 


CALB IPO: First Day Trading Strategy Amid Market Turmoil

Germany

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche Aktiengesellschaft manufactures passenger vehicles. The Company offers sports cars, SUVs, and other motor vehicles, as well as provides finance services. Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche serves customers worldwide.

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Dr Ing hc F Porsche (P911 GR)

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, China A50, SET50, Bilibili, Leapmotor, Onewo, CALB

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Porsche AG Starts Trading

A lucky day for many: Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for EV, the Porsches & Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG plus a c.€19.05...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Trading Strategy for WCP Post Lowered IPO Price

Our base case valuation of WCP is market cap of 1.8 trillion won or target price of 51,973 won, which is 13% lower than the IPO price of 60,000 won.

Douglas Kim

CALB IPO: First Day Trading Strategy Amid Market Turmoil

We discuss the first day trading strategy of CALB (3931 HK) amid market turmoil. Unlike recent disappointing IPOs for Leapmotor and Onewo, we...

Douglas Kim

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