Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

<ul>
<li>Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.</li>
<li>Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan's TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level</li>
</ul>


Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.
Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
The S&amp;P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan's TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level


Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>India’s healthcare sector is poised for growth, with an expected steady 11-12% CAGR over the next five years, led by favourable macroeconomic factors such as healthcare infrastructure and a structural shift towards an organised market</li><li>Within this healthcare landscape: (1) the hospital segment has already undergone the CAPEX phase (added bed capacity over FY14-19)</li><li>It is now in the execution phase, focusing on improving occupancy and ARPOB^, translating into a better margin</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

India’s healthcare sector is poised for growth, with an expected steady 11-12% CAGR over the next five years, led by favourable macroeconomic factors such as healthcare infrastructure and a structural shift towards an organised marketWithin this healthcare landscape: (1) the hospital segment has already undergone the CAPEX phase (added bed capacity over FY14-19)It is now in the execution phase, focusing on improving occupancy and ARPOB^, translating into a better marginContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Healthcare: Strong Position, Long Runway for Growth

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

India focused: IPO, special situations, Stylus Holdings

Himanshu Dugar

India focused: IPO, special situations

Stylus Holdings

Stylus Holdings is a buy-side equity research firm. We offer bottom-up investment ideas as well as provide on demand equity research and portfolio tracking. 
At Stylus, our focus is to identify market dislocations that can generate 20+% IRR with a reasonable margin of safety. As part of our research process, we do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company, evaluate their competitive positioning and assess their valuation.
Our investment team is led by Himanshu Dugar. Himanshu is a Chartered Accountant and a CFA charter holder. He has 10+ years of active experience in the stock market with stints at CRISIL Research, a S&P Global copmany and Miras Investments, a single family office based in Dubai.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Capital Markets

Molbio Diagnostics Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Molbio offers one of the only two WHO approved novel portable point-of-care (“POC”) molecular diagnostics platform 'Trunat' which covers In Vitro testing for 30 diseases today with 43 assays</li>
<li>After post-COVID dip, revenue trajectory improved in FY26 despite lower demand due from Global AID mandates. FY26 rev grew 45% with 22% opmargins. Molbio's acquisitions are now expected to ramp-up</li>
<li>IPO has been priced aggressively at 56x FY26 earnings at par with Indian diagnostics players. Valuations appear full and demand strong near term delivery</li>
</ul>


Molbio offers one of the only two WHO approved novel portable point-of-care (“POC”) molecular diagnostics platform 'Trunat' which covers In Vitro testing for 30 diseases today with 43 assays
After post-COVID dip, revenue trajectory improved in FY26 despite lower demand due from Global AID mandates. FY26 rev grew 45% with 22% opmargins. Molbio's acquisitions are now expected to ramp-up
IPO has been priced aggressively at 56x FY26 earnings at par with Indian diagnostics players. Valuations appear full and demand strong near term delivery


Molbio IPO Review: Point Of Care Medtech - Recovering from Post-COVID Blues

India

Dr. Lal PathLabs Limited is an Indian diagnostic and healthcare service provider, offering a comprehensive range of pathology, radiology, and cardiology tests. The company's services include routine blood and urine tests, specialized screenings for conditions like diabetes and cancer, and preventive health check-ups. Headquartered in New Delhi, India, the company was founded in 1949.

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Dr. Lal PathLabs (DLPL IN)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

Pullback Underway $ACWI $SPX; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensive Sectors is a Reason for Caution. Buys in Health Care,...

Vermilion Research

Healthcare: Strong Position, Long Runway for Growth

India’s healthcare sector is poised for growth, with an expected steady 11-12% CAGR over the next five years, led by favourable macroeconomic...

HDFC Securities

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Molbio IPO Review: Point Of Care Medtech - Recovering from Post-COVID Blues

Molbio's Trunat platform offers WHO-approved portable molecular diagnostics for 30 diseases, with revenue growth despite post-COVID dip and...

Himanshu Dugar

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Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

Pullback Underway $ACWI $SPX; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensive Sectors is a Reason for Caution. Buys in Health Care,...

Vermilion Research

Healthcare: Strong Position, Long Runway for Growth

India’s healthcare sector is poised for growth, with an expected steady 11-12% CAGR over the next five years, led by favourable macroeconomic...

HDFC Securities

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Molbio IPO Review: Point Of Care Medtech - Recovering from Post-COVID Blues

​Molbio's Trunat platform offers WHO-approved portable molecular diagnostics for 30 diseases, with revenue growth despite post-COVID dip and...

Himanshu Dugar

Molbio's Trunat platform offers WHO-approved portable molecular diagnostics for 30 diseases, with revenue growth despite post-COVID dip and...