Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the F100 and F250 indices during the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Separately, we see multiple M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the next few months.</li>
<li>There could also be more regular changes during the December 2024 rebalanced event</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the F100 and F250 indices during the December 2024 index rebal event.
Separately, we see multiple M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the next few months.
There could also be more regular changes during the December 2024 rebalanced event


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Thoughts Deliveroo and Coca-Cola; More Intra-Review Changes

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the F100 and F250 indices during the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see up to seven M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the December 2024 review.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be one change for the F250 index during the December 2024 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the F100 and F250 indices during the December 2024 index rebal event.
We see up to seven M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the December 2024 review.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be one change for the F250 index during the December 2024 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Intra-Review Changes Galore; High-Impact Replacement Names

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.</li>
<li>A simple <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>."</li>
</ul>


The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.
A simple Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish Oriental Land (4661 JP)."


Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Following the withdrawal of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mondi-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22048:1" rel="noopener">Mondi PLC (MNDI LN)</a> from the contest to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ds-smith-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22150:1" rel="noopener">DS Smith PLC (SMDS LN)</a>, the gross spread to the deal turned negative (from &gt;10%).</li>
<li>At the median 7.07x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA (within the range of former transactions), the implied equity value of DS Smith would be 388.4p. (vs. an IBES consensus TP of 395p).</li>
<li>IP is giving away most of the synergies. Spread is 1.91%/2.86% (gross, annualized assuming settlement by Y/E). I would wait for the spread to widen, before setting it up.</li>
</ul>


Following the withdrawal of Mondi PLC (MNDI LN) from the contest to acquire DS Smith PLC (SMDS LN), the gross spread to the deal turned negative (from &gt;10%).
At the median 7.07x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA (within the range of former transactions), the implied equity value of DS Smith would be 388.4p. (vs. an IBES consensus TP of 395p).
IP is giving away most of the synergies. Spread is 1.91%/2.86% (gross, annualized assuming settlement by Y/E). I would wait for the spread to widen, before setting it up.


Singapore Telecommunications / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Even if you were an activist, or a trader with an activism tilt, be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Reportedly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> is negotiating a sale of Optus. Both Singtel and Optus scotch those rumours. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> enter into a Scheme. As expected. The key question: is CITIC, with 18.9% of shares out, supportive?</li>
</ul>


Even if you were an activist, or a trader with an activism tilt, be long Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) vs. Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Reportedly, Singtel (ST SP) is negotiating a sale of Optus. Both Singtel and Optus scotch those rumours. 

Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) and Alcoa (AA US) enter into a Scheme. As expected. The key question: is CITIC, with 18.9% of shares out, supportive?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric /Oriental Land, SingTel, Alumina/Alcoa, Li Ning

United Kingdom

DS Smith is an international packaging company that specializes in providing sustainable, fiber-based packaging solutions, integrated recycling services, and paper products. The company offers a range of products including corrugated packaging, paper products, and recycling services across various sectors like consumer goods, e-commerce, and industrial packaging. DS Smith was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in London, England.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

DS Smith (SMDS LN)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Thoughts Deliveroo and Coca-Cola; More Intra-Review Changes

Deliveroo could get into F250 in December 2024 while Coca-Cola might have to wait until March 2025 to get into F100 due to a minimum listing period...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Intra-Review Changes Galore; High-Impact Replacement Names

The Top 10 F250 potential ADDs could outperform the F250 index since there are many intra-review addition possibilities and these names are high...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

International Paper/DS Smith: Spread

Following the withdrawal of Mondi from the contest to acquire DS Smith, the IP/SMDS gross spread to the deal turned negative (from +10%)....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric /Oriental Land, SingTel, Alumina/Alcoa, Li Ning

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)