Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 11th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,320m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio, Lasertec, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ntt Data, Fujikura, Nintendo, Tokyo Electric Power Company.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 11th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,320m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio, Lasertec, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ntt Data, Fujikura, Nintendo, Tokyo Electric Power Company.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 11th): Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,017m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Sanrio, Lasertec, Ntt Data, Ihi, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Softbank, Disco, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Advantest, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,017m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Sanrio, Lasertec, Ntt Data, Ihi, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Softbank, Disco, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Advantest, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 4th): Sanrio, Lasertec, Ntt Data, Ihi, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Revenue increased 9.0% YoY to JPY180.2bn; Domestic Beverage revenue declined 4.0% YoY, while International Beverage surged 93.7% YoY. </li><li>Operating profit rose 10.8% YoY to JPY6.4bn; Domestic Beverage profit dropped 62.4% YoY, International Beverage profit increased 6.2x. </li><li>Net income attributable to owners rose 73.7% YoY to JPY7.3bn; FY01/25 forecasted revenue is JPY240.0bn (+12.5% YoY). </li></ul>

Revenue increased 9.0% YoY to JPY180.2bn; Domestic Beverage revenue declined 4.0% YoY, while International Beverage surged 93.7% YoY. Operating profit rose 10.8% YoY to JPY6.4bn; Domestic Beverage profit dropped 62.4% YoY, International Beverage profit increased 6.2x. Net income attributable to owners rose 73.7% YoY to JPY7.3bn; FY01/25 forecasted revenue is JPY240.0bn (+12.5% YoY). 

Dydo Drinco Inc (2590 JP): Q3 FY01/25 flash update

<ul><li>Revenue for FY01/23 was JPY117.6bn (+15.6% YoY), with Domestic Beverage revenue at JPY73.0bn (-1.7% YoY) and International Beverage revenue at JPY26.8bn (+155.8% YoY).</li><li>Operating profit for FY01/23 was JPY2.3bn (-8.2% YoY), with a JPY238mn operating loss in Domestic Beverage and a 5.0x increase in International Beverage.</li><li>For FY01/25, DyDo Group forecasts revenue of JPY240.0bn (+12.5% YoY), operating profit of JPY4.4bn (+17.9% YoY), and net income of JPY4.9bn (+10.8% YoY).</li></ul>

Revenue for FY01/23 was JPY117.6bn (+15.6% YoY), with Domestic Beverage revenue at JPY73.0bn (-1.7% YoY) and International Beverage revenue at JPY26.8bn (+155.8% YoY).Operating profit for FY01/23 was JPY2.3bn (-8.2% YoY), with a JPY238mn operating loss in Domestic Beverage and a 5.0x increase in International Beverage.For FY01/25, DyDo Group forecasts revenue of JPY240.0bn (+12.5% YoY), operating profit of JPY4.4bn (+17.9% YoY), and net income of JPY4.9bn (+10.8% YoY).

Dydo Drinco Inc (2590 JP): 1H FY01/25 flash update

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Today after the close it was <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/06/2103999/0/en/Danone-intends-to-sell-its-stake-in-Yakult.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danone-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21403:1" rel="noopener">Danone SA (BN FP)</a> - currently the largest shareholder in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yakult-honsha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17153:1" rel="noopener">Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)</a> - intended to sell down the last of its stake after a 20-year run.The press release notes "Danone's collaboration with Yakult began in 2004."That's saying it nicely. Danone bought 5% in 2000 then bought up to 20% in the market in 2003 in an effort to get Yakult to collaborate. It was not done with Yakult's permission, but it got their attention.<div>
Yakult and Danone signed an Alliance Agreement in March 2004. That agreement was renewed in 2008 so the agreement would stay in place until 2012. In 2012, negotiations on the future alliance were extended and extended and finally, in late April 2013 - after a year-plus of jawboning and speculation of a hostile bid, occasionally dampened by public promises to the contrary by Danone executives - the two companies decided they could not, in the end, agree, and they cancelled their Strategic Alliance and signed a Memorandum of Understanding on a Collaborative Relationship.
The lack of hostile action by Danone may have been the result of the fact that Yakult-friendly Japanese corporate investors bought shares in the meantime, lifting the share price by 60-70% in a year and lifting the friendly ownership to over 50%, making hostile action essentially futile. 
</div><div>
That relationship basically stood as a standstill agreement with 3 Danone appointees named to the Yakult board, and ongoing JV operation in their 50/50 Vietnam and 80/20 (Yakult/Danone) Joint Ventures and ongoing 'collaboration' in the probiotics business. Since the big buy in 2003, including dividends, Danone was up 500% on its investment as of February 2018 when it decided to sell down a very large stake after activist Corvex Management had taken on Danone and urged it to reduce capital assets which didn't provide much. At the time, Yakult traded at 20x EV/EBITDA and 36x PER. 
<h2>The NEW News</h2>
Danone is bailing on the rest of the stake while the existing commercial partnerships, "including joint-ventures in India and Vietnam remain in place" (according to the <a href="https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/768c55f8-a7c0-4ba7-b4e8-9f01bf4bef68" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>).
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/665/original/Screenshot%202020-10-06%20at%204.58.37%20PM.png?1601974734" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163665"></figure>
The weekly chart shows they did not catch the top last time (14 Feb 2018 announcement when the stock was ¥7940/share), but they enjoyed a nice run-up from a year prior. At the time, both TOPIX and TOPIX FOOD Sector indices had taken a sharp drop.
After the announcement the last time, the shares fell 6.8% on the next day. That time was a Public Offering which required a book building phase and then delivery saw a couple of weeks of large volume. The shares traded in line with market and sector before falling in April and May 2018. Since then, the shares have largely underperformed both TOPIX and the sector.
This deal is an Accelerated Block Offering. It makes things more interesting. Valuations are different than last time and the shareholder structure is different too. 
Much more below the fold.
</div>

Today after the close it was announced that Danone SA (BN FP) - currently the largest shareholder in Yakult Honsha (2267 JP) - intended to sell down the last of its stake after a 20-year run.The press release notes "Danone's collaboration with Yakult began in 2004."That's saying it nicely. Danone bought 5% in 2000 then bought up to 20% in the market in 2003 in an effort to get Yakult to collaborate. It was not done with Yakult's permission, but it got their attention.
Yakult and Danone signed an Alliance Agreement in March 2004. That agreement was renewed in 2008 so the agreement would stay in place until 2012. In 2012, negotiations on the future alliance were extended and extended and finally, in late April 2013 - after a year-plus of jawboning and speculation of a hostile bid, occasionally dampened by public promises to the contrary by Danone executives - the two companies decided they could not, in the end, agree, and they cancelled their Strategic Alliance and signed a Memorandum of Understanding on a Collaborative Relationship.
The lack of hostile action by Danone may have been the result of the fact that Yakult-friendly Japanese corporate investors bought shares in the meantime, lifting the share price by 60-70% in a year and lifting the friendly ownership to over 50%, making hostile action essentially futile. 

That relationship basically stood as a standstill agreement with 3 Danone appointees named to the Yakult board, and ongoing JV operation in their 50/50 Vietnam and 80/20 (Yakult/Danone) Joint Ventures and ongoing 'collaboration' in the probiotics business. Since the big buy in 2003, including dividends, Danone was up 500% on its investment as of February 2018 when it decided to sell down a very large stake after activist Corvex Management had taken on Danone and urged it to reduce capital assets which didn't provide much. At the time, Yakult traded at 20x EV/EBITDA and 36x PER. 
The NEW News
Danone is bailing on the rest of the stake while the existing commercial partnerships, "including joint-ventures in India and Vietnam remain in place" (according to the announcement).

The weekly chart shows they did not catch the top last time (14 Feb 2018 announcement when the stock was ¥7940/share), but they enjoyed a nice run-up from a year prior. At the time, both TOPIX and TOPIX FOOD Sector indices had taken a sharp drop.
After the announcement the last time, the shares fell 6.8% on the next day. That time was a Public Offering which required a book building phase and then delivery saw a couple of weeks of large volume. The shares traded in line with market and sector before falling in April and May 2018. Since then, the shares have largely underperformed both TOPIX and the sector.
This deal is an Accelerated Block Offering. It makes things more interesting. Valuations are different than last time and the shareholder structure is different too. 
Much more below the fold.


Danone Sells The Last of Their Yakult - Buy the Cleanup

Japan

DyDo GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. manufactures and sells a variety of beverages including coffee, green tea, fruit drink, and sports drink. The Company sells those products through vending machines and convenience stores.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dydo Drinco Inc (2590 JP)

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 11th): Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Mitsubishi Heavy...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 4th): Sanrio, Lasertec, Ntt Data, Ihi, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Sanrio (8136 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP), Ntt Data (9613 JP), Ihi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM