Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>3690 HK: A large restaurant brand temporarily closed food delivery service on Meituan, maybe related to subsidiary issue.(+)</li>
<li>700 HK: &lt;Fight of the Golden Spatula&gt; Toped the Chinese iOS Grossing Chart After the Release of the CNY Expansion Pack.（+）</li>
<li>JD/1797 HK: JD formulating live-stream anchor recruitment plan, and major anchor rumored to join (+/-)</li>
</ul>


3690 HK: A large restaurant brand temporarily closed food delivery service on Meituan, maybe related to subsidiary issue.(+)
700 HK: &lt;Fight of the Golden Spatula&gt; Toped the Chinese iOS Grossing Chart After the Release of the CNY Expansion Pack.（+）
JD/1797 HK: JD formulating live-stream anchor recruitment plan, and major anchor rumored to join (+/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 3690 HK/700 HK/JD/1797 HK

Research on Tech Companies

Evelyn Zhang

A series of recent Chinese policies promoting vocational schools instead of traditional secondary education, and efforts to eliminate after-class cramming makes me to recommend short K12 education related stocks and long vocational training related stocks.

A series of recent Chinese policies promoting vocational schools instead of traditional secondary education, and efforts to eliminate after-class cramming makes me to recommend short K12 education related stocks and long vocational training related stocks.

A Twist of Fate – China’s Suppression of Secondary Education in Favor of Vocational Education

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

The China Private Education Sector presents an exciting growth story, riding on the increase in spending on education, rise in demand for quality education, support from local governments for private investments and increase in acceptance towards online delivery mode, among others. These positive factors, however, are balanced by the decrease in birth rates and the tight regulatory regime. Despite so, we continue to see good prospects given that earnings growth will remain ahead of the overall market by significant magnitude. Meanwhile, valuations have already returned to more reasonable levels, with investment value started to emerge on some names.Companies in the sector have different focuses, including K-12 education, higher education, vocational education, tutoring (online) and tutoring (online and offline), and we have to be very selective. We prefer companies that focus on higher education which face lower regulatory risks, have a clear defined expansion strategy and specialise in a niche market segment. Out of the ten companies covered in this Smartkarma Original, we put forward <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianli-education-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27210:1" rel="noopener">Tianli Education (1773 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-yuhua-education" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23627:1" rel="noopener">China Yuhua Education (6169 HK)</a> as our top picks.<h2>What's Original?</h2>This Smartkarma Original takes an in-depth analysis on 10 companies in the Private Education Sector in China, covering stocks listed in the HKEx, NYSE, Shenzhen Stock Exchange as well as dual listings. In the A-share space, we cover <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuhu-yaxia-automobile-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9979:1" rel="noopener">Offcn Education Technology (002607 CH)</a>, which is sizeable (market cap of almost HK$210bn) and with unique exposure to the civil servants recruitment examination training.Besides addressing the key evolving trends of the industry and the all-important regulatory issues, we also touched on the private funding aspects for some prominent unlisted companies and the IPO trends of the industry. Where appropriate, we share some of our on-ground experiences with the aim to provide a closer feel on the industry and companies. We hope this Smartkarma Original will be a comprehensive and updated reference for China's Private Education Sector.

The China Private Education Sector presents an exciting growth story, riding on the increase in spending on education, rise in demand for quality education, support from local governments for private investments and increase in acceptance towards online delivery mode, among others. These positive factors, however, are balanced by the decrease in birth rates and the tight regulatory regime. Despite so, we continue to see good prospects given that earnings growth will remain ahead of the overall market by significant magnitude. Meanwhile, valuations have already returned to more reasonable levels, with investment value started to emerge on some names.Companies in the sector have different focuses, including K-12 education, higher education, vocational education, tutoring (online) and tutoring (online and offline), and we have to be very selective. We prefer companies that focus on higher education which face lower regulatory risks, have a clear defined expansion strategy and specialise in a niche market segment. Out of the ten companies covered in this Smartkarma Original, we put forward China Education Group (839 HK), Tianli Education (1773 HK) and China Yuhua Education (6169 HK) as our top picks.What's Original?This Smartkarma Original takes an in-depth analysis on 10 companies in the Private Education Sector in China, covering stocks listed in the HKEx, NYSE, Shenzhen Stock Exchange as well as dual listings. In the A-share space, we cover Offcn Education Technology (002607 CH), which is sizeable (market cap of almost HK$210bn) and with unique exposure to the civil servants recruitment examination training.Besides addressing the key evolving trends of the industry and the all-important regulatory issues, we also touched on the private funding aspects for some prominent unlisted companies and the IPO trends of the industry. Where appropriate, we share some of our on-ground experiences with the aim to provide a closer feel on the industry and companies. We hope this Smartkarma Original will be a comprehensive and updated reference for China's Private Education Sector.

China Private Education: This Is Where the Future Lies

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

In CY 2018 private AST operators responded to the regulatory tightening by swiftly reigning in their capacity expansions. In July 2018 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-tech-grp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:531:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education (EDU US)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tal-education-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1124:1" rel="noopener">TAL Education (TAL US)</a>  guided ~27% and ~45% YoY topline YoY growth in the following summer semesters (August Q 2018, FQ2 19 for TAL, FQ1 19 for EDU), decelerating from 44% and 71% YoY growth in FQ1 2019 ended May 2018, respectively.  Both stocks were massively sold off:  TAL declined by 51% from then all-time high of 47 USD in June to 23 USD in October 2018.   During the same period, EDU dropped 50% from then all-time high of 105 USD (before 10 for 1 stock split on March 2021) in June 2018 to 52 USD in December 2018.   Nevertheless, since then EDU and TAL delivered 198% and 164% return since the beginning of 2019.

In CY 2018 private AST operators responded to the regulatory tightening by swiftly reigning in their capacity expansions. In July 2018 New Oriental Education (EDU US)  and TAL Education (TAL US)  guided ~27% and ~45% YoY topline YoY growth in the following summer semesters (August Q 2018, FQ2 19 for TAL, FQ1 19 for EDU), decelerating from 44% and 71% YoY growth in FQ1 2019 ended May 2018, respectively.  Both stocks were massively sold off:  TAL declined by 51% from then all-time high of 47 USD in June to 23 USD in October 2018.   During the same period, EDU dropped 50% from then all-time high of 105 USD (before 10 for 1 stock split on March 2021) in June 2018 to 52 USD in December 2018.   Nevertheless, since then EDU and TAL delivered 198% and 164% return since the beginning of 2019. 

China’s Congress on AST Industry Oversight: Mostly Rhetoric, Little Practicality

Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

<ul>
<li>The fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) will be held from October 26 to 29 in Beijing, according to a decision made at the Politburo meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping meeting on Monday.</li>
<li>The Fifth Plenum, to be held next week (26-29 October), will most likely focus on Three major subjects: i) the steering of China’s economic growth and restructuring, ii) the development of China’s 14th Five Year Plan, and iii) the prepared political reshuffling to occur ahead of 2022, when the Standing Committee, China’s highest legislative body, is expected to step down.</li>
<li>As one of the important task, the meeting will focus on finalising the guidelines for the 14th Five Year Plan. The plan will be approved in March 2021 at the conclusion of the annual National People’s Congress meeting.</li>
</ul>


The fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) will be held from October 26 to 29 in Beijing, according to a decision made at the Politburo meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping meeting on Monday.
The Fifth Plenum, to be held next week (26-29 October), will most likely focus on Three major subjects: i) the steering of China’s economic growth and restructuring, ii) the development of China’s 14th Five Year Plan, and iii) the prepared political reshuffling to occur ahead of 2022, when the Standing Committee, China’s highest legislative body, is expected to step down.
As one of the important task, the meeting will focus on finalising the guidelines for the 14th Five Year Plan. The plan will be approved in March 2021 at the conclusion of the annual National People’s Congress meeting.


Fifth Plenum Should Focus on Economic Targets, Five Year Plan, Political Reshuffling

China

East Buy is an investment holding company primarily engaged in livestreaming e-commerce, selling private label products and providing commission services. The company offers agricultural products, including fresh foods, juice, coffee, tea, and bedding, under its "East Buy" brand. Headquartered in Beijing, China, the company was founded in 2018.

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East Buy (1797 HK)

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 3690 HK/700 HK/JD/1797 HK

A large brand temporarily suspends food delivery on Meituan, possibly due to subsidiary; "Fight of the Golden Spatula" tops Chinese iOS Grossing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

A Twist of Fate – China’s Suppression of Secondary Education in Favor of Vocational Education

Change is afoot in one of China's main social mobility mechanism, the education system. The country is promoting vocational education in an effort...

Evelyn Zhang

China Private Education: This Is Where the Future Lies

Profit growth at China Private Education Sector will speed ahead and outperform overall market significantly. With valuations retreated to more...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China’s Congress on AST Industry Oversight: Mostly Rhetoric, Little Practicality

The crackdown on irregular AST businesses, if seriously implemented, will wipe out small operators (mostly mom and pops), and leave the big ones...

JL Warren Capital

Fifth Plenum Should Focus on Economic Targets, Five Year Plan, Political Reshuffling

The fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) will be held from October 26 to 29 in Beijing,...

Li Tang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 3690 HK/700 HK/JD/1797 HK

​A large brand temporarily suspends food delivery on Meituan, possibly due to subsidiary; "Fight of the Golden Spatula" tops Chinese iOS Grossing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

A Twist of Fate – China’s Suppression of Secondary Education in Favor of Vocational Education

Change is afoot in one of China's main social mobility mechanism, the education system. The country is promoting vocational education in an effort...

Evelyn Zhang

China Private Education: This Is Where the Future Lies

Profit growth at China Private Education Sector will speed ahead and outperform overall market significantly. With valuations retreated to more...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China’s Congress on AST Industry Oversight: Mostly Rhetoric, Little Practicality

The crackdown on irregular AST businesses, if seriously implemented, will wipe out small operators (mostly mom and pops), and leave the big ones...

JL Warren Capital

Fifth Plenum Should Focus on Economic Targets, Five Year Plan, Political Reshuffling

The fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) will be held from October 26 to 29 in Beijing,...

Li Tang

A large brand temporarily suspends food delivery on Meituan, possibly due to subsidiary; "Fight of the Golden Spatula" tops Chinese iOS Grossing...