'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/867/original/2020-11-25_11-14-58.png?1606270511" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173867"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-<ul>
<li>
CONTRARIAN BUYS - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
CONTRARIAN SELLS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
TURNAROUNDS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
EX-GROWTH - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores</li>
</ul>In the two Contrarian quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE (5411 JP)</a>  in Buys, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil(5938 JP)</a> in Turnarounds, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ariake-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1" rel="noopener">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a> in the Ex-Growth quadrant.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/896/original/2020-11-25_12-25-57.png?1606274769" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173896"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/903/original/2020-11-25_12-56-49.png?1606276623" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173903"></figure></section><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7b61jl02dh0pzno/2020-11-25_12-43-55.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CONTRARIAN BUYS</a> - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. </section>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsFOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-

CONTRARIAN BUYS - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

CONTRARIAN SELLS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

TURNAROUNDS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores

EX-GROWTH - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores
In the two Contrarian quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as JFE (5411 JP)  in Buys, Lasertec (6920 JP) in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as Lixil(5938 JP) in Turnarounds, and Ariake Japan (2815 JP) in the Ex-Growth quadrant.CONTRARIAN BUYS - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Wednesday's announcements is E-commerce office supplies company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/askul-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16807:1" rel="noopener">Askul (2678 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1" rel="noopener">East Japan Railway (9020 JP)</a>.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/492/original/2020-09-17_06-14-59.png?1600290917" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159492"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/493/original/2020-09-17_06-15-48.png?1600290962" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159493"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>DAILY STATS - Only one company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crossfor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29158:1" rel="noopener">Crossfor (7810 JP)</a> had a negative Results Score, while only four of fourteen Forecast/Revision Scores were positive. The average change in Forecast/Revision Score was -8.9 points.

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Wednesday's announcements is E-commerce office supplies company Askul (2678 JP) and East Japan Railway (9020 JP).  Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS - Only one company, Crossfor (7810 JP) had a negative Results Score, while only four of fourteen Forecast/Revision Scores were positive. The average change in Forecast/Revision Score was -8.9 points.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​​​16 - Askul Begs a Question & East Japan [De]Rail[ed]way

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>The Corona virus was an effective muzzle on activist demands this year. It also gave companies a convenient excuse to curtail investor participation. </li>
<li>Virtually all shareholder proposals were rejected. It could be written off as "when disaster strikes people come together". </li>
<li>This should not detract from the significant improvements in corporate governance to date nor the less visible wins that take place behind closed doors. </li>
<li>Japanese cash-rich companies look even more attractive relative to global peers. Activism is not going away. Perhaps, the approach may change. </li>
</ul>


The Corona virus was an effective muzzle on activist demands this year. It also gave companies a convenient excuse to curtail investor participation. 
Virtually all shareholder proposals were rejected. It could be written off as "when disaster strikes people come together". 
This should not detract from the significant improvements in corporate governance to date nor the less visible wins that take place behind closed doors. 
Japanese cash-rich companies look even more attractive relative to global peers. Activism is not going away. Perhaps, the approach may change. 


Japanese Activism: Playing Behind Closed Doors

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/266/original/2020-04-24_08-07-36.png?1588109848" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130266"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>29TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Tuesday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 117 results was 52:3:62; and for the 76 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 22:2:52. Of the 82 companies announcing annual results, only 22 made forecasts for the current year, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano (7309 JP)</a> withdrew its FY2020 forecast. Our Sector Score chart is now showing some dramatic changes. Consumer Services is now the lowest-scoring Sector following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s poor full-year results. In comparison, significant declines have been seen in Transportation &amp; Logistics (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1" rel="noopener">East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)</a> and Utilities (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2332:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Gas (9531 JP))</a>.  The Internet Content &amp; Services (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a>) and Chemicals ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a>) Sectors are the largest gainers.

Source • Japan Analytics29TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Tuesday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 117 results was 52:3:62; and for the 76 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 22:2:52. Of the 82 companies announcing annual results, only 22 made forecasts for the current year, while Shimano (7309 JP) withdrew its FY2020 forecast. Our Sector Score chart is now showing some dramatic changes. Consumer Services is now the lowest-scoring Sector following Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s poor full-year results. In comparison, significant declines have been seen in Transportation &amp; Logistics (East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP) and Utilities (Tokyo Gas (9531 JP)).  The Internet Content &amp; Services (ZOZO (3092 JP)) and Chemicals ( Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)) Sectors are the largest gainers. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 29th April - Mit.Chem, TKC, Keyence, ZOZO, Shimano. Or.Land

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Both Parco and Daimaru-Matsuzakaya managed to improve on the year before in FY2025.</li>
<li>But Parco performed much better than the department stores, delivering record results across seven buildings with plans for more investment going forward.</li>
<li>Structural reforms and clever merchandising have played their part but inbound tourists have been a key factor. </li>
</ul>


Both Parco and Daimaru-Matsuzakaya managed to improve on the year before in FY2025.
But Parco performed much better than the department stores, delivering record results across seven buildings with plans for more investment going forward.
Structural reforms and clever merchandising have played their part but inbound tourists have been a key factor. 


Japan

East Japan Railway Company provides rail transportation services in the Kanto and Tohoku regions, including Tokyo.  The Company's services include the shinkansen (bullet train) network and the Tokyo metropolitan network.  East Japan Railway also leases real estate and operates hotel, travel, and restaurant businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results & Revision Score (RRS), we can assign...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/16 - Askul Begs a Question & East Japan [De]Rail[ed]way

• BEST & WORST • Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Wedrday's announcements is food and drink retailer Life (8194 JP) and parking lot...

Campbell Gunn

Japanese Activism: Playing Behind Closed Doors

The Corona virus was an effective muzzle on activist demands this year. It also gave companies a convenient excuse to curtail investor...

Mark Chadwick

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 29th April - Mit.Chem, TKC, Keyence, ZOZO, Shimano. Or.Land

29TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Tuesday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements. The...

Campbell Gunn

Parco Drives Growth for J Front

Parco outperforms Daimaru-Matsuzakaya in FY2025 with record results and plans for further investment, thanks in part to structural reforms and...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results & Revision Score (RRS), we can assign...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​​​16 - Askul Begs a Question & East Japan [De]Rail[ed]way

• BEST & WORST • Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Wedrday's announcements is food and drink retailer Life (8194 JP) and parking lot...

Campbell Gunn

Japanese Activism: Playing Behind Closed Doors

The Corona virus was an effective muzzle on activist demands this year. It also gave companies a convenient excuse to curtail investor...

Mark Chadwick

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 29th April - Mit.Chem, TKC, Keyence, ZOZO, Shimano. Or.Land

29TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Tuesday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements. The...

Campbell Gunn

Parco Drives Growth for J Front

​Parco outperforms Daimaru-Matsuzakaya in FY2025 with record results and plans for further investment, thanks in part to structural reforms and...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/16 - Askul Begs a Question & East Japan [De]Rail[ed]way

Parco outperforms Daimaru-Matsuzakaya in FY2025 with record results and plans for further investment, thanks in part to structural reforms and...