HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The H-share IPOs of listed A-shares since 2025 witnessed a 6.6pp contraction in HA discount, compared with only 2.7pp for the Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giga-device-semiconductor-inc-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/victory-giant-technology-huizhou-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48083:1" rel="noopener">Victory Giant (2476 HK)</a> are the only 3 with both good discount contraction, fast growth and large size.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-co-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)</a> is large in size but not as fast in growth. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delton-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47605:1" rel="noopener">Delton Technology (1989 HK)</a>'s market capitalisation is relatively small.  </li>
</ul>


The H-share IPOs of listed A-shares since 2025 witnessed a 6.6pp contraction in HA discount, compared with only 2.7pp for the Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index.

GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK), Montage Technology (6809 HK), and Victory Giant (2476 HK) are the only 3 with both good discount contraction, fast growth and large size.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) is large in size but not as fast in growth. Delton Technology (1989 HK)'s market capitalisation is relatively small.  


HK Strategy: H-Share IPOs - Both Growth and Size Count Now

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, DZT Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We study 139 HK listings since 2025 and collected performance data for cornerstone investors, covering both raw cornerstone names and mapped investor entities where available.</li>
<li>We identify repeat cornerstone investors and sponsors with stronger post-listing track records, focusing on 2W return distribution, dollar-weighted return, deal count, and downside range.</li>
<li>We further examine investor-sponsor relationships, using both raw co-participation counts and sponsor-adjusted intensity to highlight cornerstone investors and sponsor pairings worth following.</li>
</ul>


We study 139 HK listings since 2025 and collected performance data for cornerstone investors, covering both raw cornerstone names and mapped investor entities where available.
We identify repeat cornerstone investors and sponsors with stronger post-listing track records, focusing on 2W return distribution, dollar-weighted return, deal count, and downside range.
We further examine investor-sponsor relationships, using both raw co-participation counts and sponsor-adjusted intensity to highlight cornerstone investors and sponsor pairings worth following.


2025/2026 HK IPO: Cornerstone Investors That Matter

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Eastroc Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Based on 25Q3 results, the biggest problem lies in the continuous slowdown of its core business (energy beverages), which has led to the overall performance slightly falling short of expectations.</li>
<li>The upper limit of Eastroc Super Drink could be around RMB23-27 billion. Since energy beverages’ annual revenue has approached RMB16 billion, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to achieve the remaining growth.</li>
<li>The future growth of Eastroc may not support the current valuation. A more comfortable valuation range could be P/E of 20-25x, which will provide investors with sufficient margin of safety.</li>
</ul>


Based on 25Q3 results, the biggest problem lies in the continuous slowdown of its core business (energy beverages), which has led to the overall performance slightly falling short of expectations.
The upper limit of Eastroc Super Drink could be around RMB23-27 billion. Since energy beverages’ annual revenue has approached RMB16 billion, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to achieve the remaining growth.
The future growth of Eastroc may not support the current valuation. A more comfortable valuation range could be P/E of 20-25x, which will provide investors with sufficient margin of safety.


Pre-IPO Eastroc Beverage Group - The Outlook Is Not Optimistic, with More Valuation Decline Ahead

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eastroc-beverage-group-co-ltd-f3283290-a611-4cb4-8857-93101786e283" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45048:1" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage Group (9980 HK)</a> priced its H Share at HK$248 to raise HK$10,141 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eastroc-beverage-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:218181" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eastroc-beverage-h-share-listing-9980-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:218705" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing (9980 HK): Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>Eastroc's international oversubscription rates were above the median of recent large AH listings. The AH discount remains reasonable.</li>
</ul>



Eastroc Beverage Group (9980 HK) priced its H Share at HK$248 to raise HK$10,141 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing: The Investment Case and Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing (9980 HK): Valuation Insights. 
Eastroc's international oversubscription rates were above the median of recent large AH listings. The AH discount remains reasonable.


Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing (9980 HK): Trading Debut

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Eastroc Beverage Group is target market cap of HK$234.7 billion (US$30.1 billion). </li>
<li>This is 41% higher than the expected market cap of HK$166.4 billion at the high end of the IPO price range. Given the solid upside, we have a Positive View. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on P/E of 29.6x our estimated net profit of RMB7.1 billion (2027E). Eastroc Beverage has higher sales growth rate and ROE than its comps.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Eastroc Beverage Group is target market cap of HK$234.7 billion (US$30.1 billion). 
This is 41% higher than the expected market cap of HK$166.4 billion at the high end of the IPO price range. Given the solid upside, we have a Positive View. 
Our base case valuation is based on P/E of 29.6x our estimated net profit of RMB7.1 billion (2027E). Eastroc Beverage has higher sales growth rate and ROE than its comps.


Eastroc Beverage Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

China

Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co. Ltd. is a Chinese beverage company specializing in the research, development, production, and sale of a diverse range of healthy drinks. Its product portfolio includes energy drinks (e.g., Eastroc Super Drink), electrolyte drinks (e.g., Eastroc Water Boost), various tea-based beverages, coffee drinks, plant-based protein drinks, fruit and vegetable juices, and cocktails. The company is headquartered in Shenzhen, Guangdong, China, and was founded in 1987.

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Eastroc Beverage (9980 HK)

2025/2026 HK IPO: Cornerstone Investors That Matter

HK IPO: We studied 139 deals from 2025 to-date to build a quantifiable cornerstone-investor signal for future IPO participation.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Eastroc Beverage Group - The Outlook Is Not Optimistic, with More Valuation Decline Ahead

We have analyzed in the insight our concerns about Eastroc. The future growth prospects cannot support the current valuation, as the upper limit of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Eastroc Beverage Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

We have a Positive outlook on Eastroc Beverage Group HK IPO with a target market cap of HK$234.7 billion, 41% higher than expected, based on...

Douglas Kim

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HK Strategy: H-Share IPOs - Both Growth and Size Count Now

​H-share IPOs of A-shares since 2025 show significant HA discount contraction, with GigaDevice Semiconductor, Montage Technology, and Victory Giant...

Osbert Tang, CFA

2025/2026 HK IPO: Cornerstone Investors That Matter

HK IPO: We studied 139 deals from 2025 to-date to build a quantifiable cornerstone-investor signal for future IPO participation.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Eastroc Beverage Group - The Outlook Is Not Optimistic, with More Valuation Decline Ahead

We have analyzed in the insight our concerns about Eastroc. The future growth prospects cannot support the current valuation, as the upper limit of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing (9980 HK): Trading Debut

Eastroc's international oversubscription rates were above the median of recent large AH listings. The AH discount remains reasonable.

Arun George

Eastroc Beverage Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

We have a ​Positive outlook on Eastroc Beverage Group HK IPO with a target market cap of HK$234.7 billion, 41% higher than expected, based on...

Douglas Kim

H-share IPOs of A-shares since 2025 show significant HA discount contraction, with GigaDevice Semiconductor, Montage Technology, and Victory Giant...

We have a Positive outlook on Eastroc Beverage Group HK IPO with a target market cap of HK$234.7 billion, 41% higher than expected, based on...