HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Eastroc Beverage Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Based on 25Q3 results, the biggest problem lies in the continuous slowdown of its core business (energy beverages), which has led to the overall performance slightly falling short of expectations.</li>
<li>The upper limit of Eastroc Super Drink could be around RMB23-27 billion. Since energy beverages’ annual revenue has approached RMB16 billion, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to achieve the remaining growth.</li>
<li>The future growth of Eastroc may not support the current valuation. A more comfortable valuation range could be P/E of 20-25x, which will provide investors with sufficient margin of safety.</li>
</ul>


Based on 25Q3 results, the biggest problem lies in the continuous slowdown of its core business (energy beverages), which has led to the overall performance slightly falling short of expectations.
The upper limit of Eastroc Super Drink could be around RMB23-27 billion. Since energy beverages’ annual revenue has approached RMB16 billion, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to achieve the remaining growth.
The future growth of Eastroc may not support the current valuation. A more comfortable valuation range could be P/E of 20-25x, which will provide investors with sufficient margin of safety.


Pre-IPO Eastroc Beverage Group - The Outlook Is Not Optimistic, with More Valuation Decline Ahead

<ul>
<li>Both revenue and net profit of Eastroc maintain a high-speed growth trend in 25H1, which is impressive against the backdrop of the overall stabilization of the food and beverage industry.</li>
<li>The mid-term dividend payout ratio is high, which is relatively rare among growth-oriented food and beverage companies. Valuation of Eastroc should be higher than Nongfu Spring, China Resources Beverage.</li>
<li>However, inflation may drive up raw material prices. Eastroc’s profit may face pressure once products sales fail to grow as fast as expected.We updated our forecast for next three years</li>
</ul>


Both revenue and net profit of Eastroc maintain a high-speed growth trend in 25H1, which is impressive against the backdrop of the overall stabilization of the food and beverage industry.
The mid-term dividend payout ratio is high, which is relatively rare among growth-oriented food and beverage companies. Valuation of Eastroc should be higher than Nongfu Spring, China Resources Beverage.
However, inflation may drive up raw material prices. Eastroc’s profit may face pressure once products sales fail to grow as fast as expected.We updated our forecast for next three years


Eastroc Beverage Group - High Growth in 25H1 Continues but Concerns Begin to Emerge

<ul>
<li>2024 is a milestone year. The weighted average ROE set a new high. Due to cost dilution brought by economies of scale, net profit growth was higher than revenue growth.</li>
<li>The risk of relying on a single category hasn’t been eliminated. Traditional advantages of offline channels are becoming saturated. There is a gap between channel structure and new consumer forces</li>
<li>Eastroc’s valuation is expected to be higher than the industry average and peers due to its higher growth rate, but investors needs to consider the H/A premium</li>
</ul>


2024 is a milestone year. The weighted average ROE set a new high. Due to cost dilution brought by economies of scale, net profit growth was higher than revenue growth.
The risk of relying on a single category hasn’t been eliminated. Traditional advantages of offline channels are becoming saturated. There is a gap between channel structure and new consumer forces
Eastroc’s valuation is expected to be higher than the industry average and peers due to its higher growth rate, but investors needs to consider the H/A premium


Pre IPO Eastroc Beverage Group (H Share) - The Strength, the Concerns and the Outlook

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's IPO market has gathered momentum lately, especially with the overwhelming response to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>. Consumer IPOs are the next ones to gather interest. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44279:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Co (FHF HK)</a> is the most imminent one, potentially seeking up to US$1bn. Without significant peers in Hong Kong, it should attract good attention.</li>
<li>The other interesting ones include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhou-liu-fu-jewellery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43706:1" rel="noopener">Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/three-squirrels" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45113:1" rel="noopener">Three Squirrels (TRS HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eastroc-beverage-group-co-ltd-f3283290-a611-4cb4-8857-93101786e283" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45048:1" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage Group (EBG HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's IPO market has gathered momentum lately, especially with the overwhelming response to CATL (3750 HK). Consumer IPOs are the next ones to gather interest. 

Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Co (FHF HK) is the most imminent one, potentially seeking up to US$1bn. Without significant peers in Hong Kong, it should attract good attention.
The other interesting ones include Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH), Three Squirrels (TRS HK), and Eastroc Beverage Group (EBG HK). 


HK Strategy: Some Consumer IPO Pipelines and Their Proxies

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Eastroc Beverage Group   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eastroc-beverage-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34882:1" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH)</a> (EB), a China-based functional beverage company, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>According to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), EB has been the largest functional beverage company in China in terms of sales volume for four consecutive years since 2021.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH) (EB), a China-based functional beverage company, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
According to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), EB has been the largest functional beverage company in China in terms of sales volume for four consecutive years since 2021.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


Eastroc Beverage A/H Listing - Energized - Fast Growth, Better Margins

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Eastroc Beverage Group (EBG HK)

Pre-IPO Eastroc Beverage Group - The Outlook Is Not Optimistic, with More Valuation Decline Ahead

Eastroc faces challenges as core energy beverage business slow down, impacting overall performance and future growth potential, thus cannot...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Eastroc Beverage Group - High Growth in 25H1 Continues but Concerns Begin to Emerge

Both revenue and net profit of Eastroc maintain a high-speed growth trend on 25H1, with high dividend payout ratio. But inflation may pose a...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Strategy: Some Consumer IPO Pipelines and Their Proxies

HK's IPO market gains momentum with CATL leading the way. Consumer IPOs like Foshan Haitian are next in line, attracting attention. Others include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Eastroc Beverage A/H Listing - Energized - Fast Growth, Better Margins

Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH) (EB), a China-based functional beverage company, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Eastroc Beverage Group - The Outlook Is Not Optimistic, with More Valuation Decline Ahead

​Eastroc faces challenges as core energy beverage business slow down, impacting overall performance and future growth potential, thus cannot...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Eastroc Beverage Group - High Growth in 25H1 Continues but Concerns Begin to Emerge

Both revenue and net profit of Eastroc maintain a high-speed growth trend on 25H1, with high dividend payout ratio. But inflation may pose a...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre IPO Eastroc Beverage Group (H Share) - The Strength, the Concerns and the Outlook

​2024 is a milestone year.The weighted average ROE set a new high. Higher growth rate may lead to a higher valuation, but risks remain due to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Strategy: Some Consumer IPO Pipelines and Their Proxies

HK's IPO market gains momentum with CATL leading the way. Consumer IPOs like Foshan Haitian are next in line, attracting attention. Others include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Eastroc Beverage A/H Listing - Energized - Fast Growth, Better Margins

Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH) (EB), a China-based functional beverage company, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Eastroc faces challenges as core energy beverage business slow down, impacting overall performance and future growth potential, thus cannot...

2024 is a milestone year.The weighted average ROE set a new high. Higher growth rate may lead to a higher valuation, but risks remain due to...